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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #12,461
  • Aug 12, 2008 1:16pm Aug 12, 2008 1:16pm
Yes I agree that yes indeed we have a PB on the Euro but the question is? Is this the bottom? The GBPUSD has no PB and it looks like it will go down some more too... I luv to trade pinbars but I am staying far and clear of any trades until we see a bottom. I just don't see any bottoming action whatsoever... Sit back go fishing come back another day... Like women another trade will come soon enough. PinBar69... Stay Flat and save your equity.

Quoting ghous
exactly!!! besides the strong bearish momentum can't be ignored...

to n aftab...

do you have a valid explanation why this has to necessarily bounce off the ppz?? i won't be surprised if this recent bearish momentum breaks this ppz to head for the next (refer to chart)
  • #12,462
  • Aug 12, 2008 1:19pm Aug 12, 2008 1:19pm
Quoting ghous
exactly!!! besides the strong bearish momentum can't be ignored...

do you have a valid explanation why this has to necessarily bounce off the ppz?? i won't be surprised if this recent bearish momentum breaks this ppz to head for the next (refer to chart)
i finished my second read of the the thread and while i am getting better at finding ppz, i still find i am a bit lost when it comes to blending it with the pins.

i have a question about this particular "potential set-up." i have support/resistance/ppz b/w 4921 and 4967 (-ish ... as per jarroo ... ). price has already busted through this area and i see the nose of this potential pin (albeit a pretty weak potential pin due to the shortness of the nose) protruding well below this area of support ...

so, i am back to my confusion about ppz/s/r ... are we looking for the nose to bounce off of ppz/s/r ... or does it just have to be "around" there in some way ... what if price closes below the supported region?

again, thank you for your patience and kind responses.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #12,463
  • Aug 12, 2008 1:25pm Aug 12, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting y.caesar
As you can see, I'm so used to taking profit 20-30 pips at a time. So it's hard for me to see after my first entry I was already in a profit but it retraced heavily almost to my entry. So after my second entry, the price move back to the top of the pin, I just had to exit. My mistake is that I was too trigger happy. I realize that this is a whole new system using James' methods. But it's so hard to switch off my trigger happy mentality from my other system. This is the third time in these two weeks I'm out way too early
Hi Caesar!

good to see you spotting PA setups well, that Eu pin bar you posted a few pages back was great, i am sorry i was not able to respond soon enough have been busy...

anyways your qouted post does take me back a few months when i was facing this problem a lot, i found a way to get rid of it maybe it will help you too so i am sharing it here...

I first started off trading daily charts following Jim's advice, and at that time i was trading nothing over the 1H, anything above this seemed damn boring, but Jim and his advice were far too difficult to ignore, i thus started trading the daily and like you i used to get carried away too soon...either enetring too early or exiting too early. for example i see Eu with a pin bar to the north, i take the short and want to ride th south train. but ALAS! the thing "looks" to go up...i chicken out since i think that the pin bar has failed, and guess what?? the daily closes as a great bearish candle... then again at times i used to get positive as soon as i take the the trade and remain positive for the entire day and the next candle then starts to retrace a bit and my heart in jumps in my throat, and i close the trade out of fear only to relaize that the fear was pointless.

the solution i found to such a problem was that i understood that we as traders on the higher tfs do do not need to stare at the screens for eternity, afteral that is the great charm of trading the higher tfs in the first place. now we all agree that to decide to enter and exit a trade should depend on the shape and size of the candle that goes against or in favor of your trade (or if you have pre-set targets) which is confirmed only at the close of the candle, why go through the hassle of wathing it itch here and there as time goes on, Caesar you've been coming from a tf as low as the 1 min, do you find it entertaining to watch all those tniy movments in either direction when you know that a descion can only be made if the candle closes??

i can understand that coming from a lower tf does bring some boredom to you (as it did to me) but the fact is we're often trying to get rid of it in a harmful method.

in both the instances i mentioned above my trades would have done great had i left them open but the only thing that got the better of me was that silly action to keep staring on the screen wathcing those tick movments, and then ofcaorse at times you can't help getting carried away. My advise to you is that try to take/exit trades only on candle open/close and the rest of the time take your eyes off the pair and do some other analysis or if you have nothing to do, go feed the dog, even if it was fed an hour ago (if you get the point )

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #12,464
  • Aug 12, 2008 1:26pm Aug 12, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting n_aftab
I dont have any explanation as to why the market should do exactly what i think, i can only specualate,

If i knew exactly what it was going to do, i'd be a millionaire after 1 trade.

So we'll just have to see what the market does.

N
a post ago you seemed far too confident to take that long, this made mr ask th qs...
I believe . . .
  • #12,465
  • Aug 12, 2008 1:31pm Aug 12, 2008 1:31pm
your absence was definitely noticed by me ... i really get a lot out of your posts!
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #12,466
  • Aug 12, 2008 1:36pm Aug 12, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting Greenhaze
Hold your horses. It's not a pinbar , it's a doji which reflects the indecission.
You are right and that's why I said I was waiting for midnight (GMT+2) but it looks less and less like a doji as time is passing.


I also noticed a potential trade on GBPAUD. On 4h we have an inside bar and on daily chart a pin growing.
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  • #12,467
  • Aug 12, 2008 1:45pm Aug 12, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting y.caesar
Actually, I'm thinking more of the incoming news for USD, which are retail and cpi. While on that subject, can I ask how you manage you trade? Let's say you're in a trade based on a 4H or daily signal already, and there are impending big news for that pair. Do you exit before the news or hold through in the hope that the result of the news will confirm the technical signal?
IMHO there's really nothing much to "hope" about.

Rarely are there any news that will countermand what is supposed to happen. If there's a daily setup of a good size and placement, even the news-shove-and-pushers will be hard pressed to negate what's been placed price wise.
And if there was only so-so a chance of success to begin with, you get knocked out.
It's a bit more dangerous if you're on lower timeframes and suffer spread widening though

But what I am saying is - there's moves going on.
I.e. the market "wants to go somewhere" almost all of the time. "News" might jerk the market around at times, but there are only so many events that are capable of instigating a new move / changing the play logic.

Looking at 15+ days of indicator-and-news-spiting (it might have heeded one bit of information to cause the move, but that's about it) drop of AUDUSD should be a good example of how limited power ANY of the lesser forces are(neither news nor indicator crowds had a chance of making their laments morph into a turnaround) versus what price WILL do if it really WANTS to do it.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12,468
  • Aug 12, 2008 1:50pm Aug 12, 2008 1:50pm
Hi,

I still am confident that a long trade will make some profit,

It's the way you wanted a explantion as to why price should go up,

I look for support / resistance lines and pin bars, that my setup.

N
  • #12,469
  • Aug 12, 2008 2:22pm Aug 12, 2008 2:22pm
Hello guys.
I'm curious, how many days do you hold D1 and W1 trades? 5 days? 15? 30 ? Do u know some average? Sometimes i take 50-100 pips and my closed trade make in few days another 100-200.. I'm so undisciplined and greedy! I will change it.
Wish you another another profitable week in this best business
  • #12,470
  • Aug 12, 2008 2:28pm Aug 12, 2008 2:28pm
potential pin bar setting up in silver; off historical support?? ... near S3 and below lower BB, but no other confluence that i could figure out.
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"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #12,471
  • Aug 12, 2008 2:43pm Aug 12, 2008 2:43pm
If the e/u day bar will close as a pinbar it wont be the A+ pb. Why?

Compare the protruding nose to the downside momentum. It doesnt really convince me to look for reverse. Looking at the gbp/usd i see how the price broke the 50% fib and weekly uptrendline so it wont be helping any longs in e/u. Check the usd/chf it seems to me that price is sitting on the support area. Oil has got a bit space to go down till 110. In the case of probability this soon to be formed pb could be played with very small risk. Personaly i'm looking for euro to go down to 1.4770 area before any possible pullbacks then 1.4610. Those are pretty good s/r levels in the 1.3500-1.5000 range.
  • #12,472
  • Aug 12, 2008 3:54pm Aug 12, 2008 3:54pm
  •  2mas
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Thanks to James 16 family | 89 Posts
This fiber daily PB is about to close in less than an hour on my charts.

Pros: What I like about is what Mike talked about before.... the space created around it ( the grey area), 365 ema.
Cons: of course, the huge recent drops and the cable is dropping and about to close with a big clear bearish bar.

It'd be really great if we hear from Mike and you guys about it.
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  • #12,473
  • Aug 12, 2008 4:33pm Aug 12, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting 2mas
This fiber daily PB is about to close in less than an hour on my charts.

Pros: What I like about is what Mike talked about before.... the space created around it ( the grey area), 365 ema.
Cons: of course, the huge recent drops and the cable is dropping and about to close with a big clear bearish bar.

It'd be really great if we hear from Mike and you guys about it.
Hey 2mas, how you been

Yep I like this one too. I try not to let what else is going on around cloud my judgment. I just like to look at each pair trade by itself. This is in a good location, would have liked a bigger nose, but it sure is a high probability trade to me.

Have a good one

Mike
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  • #12,474
  • Aug 12, 2008 4:35pm Aug 12, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting jarroo
I took a small buy at 208.90. That Price level has a nice history.

Yes, I'm waiting for the 4 hour potential Inside Bar and I'll take the break either way.
That 208.90 level proved itself again. The 4 hour IB broke to the downside which gave me a relatively small risk trade, IB was only 93 pips. Passing the 207.96 (bottom of PB of 7-16-08) without blinking an eye. (pun intended. ) 4 hour PA around Daily and Weekly PPZs can provide a low risk opportunity.

It is important to note that 4 hour Price Action is not as consistent or responsive as the higher time frames. Proving one's self on the Daily and Weekly charts, as Jim emphasizes, is a crucial study and exercise.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #12,475
  • Aug 12, 2008 5:17pm Aug 12, 2008 5:17pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey 2mas, how you been

Yep I like this one too. I try not to let what else is going on around cloud my judgment. I just like to look at each pair trade by itself. This is in a good location, would have liked a bigger nose, but it sure is a high probability trade to me.

Have a good one

Mike
Combing the last two daily bars it looks like one big doji. Should we be concerned by this when considering taking a long position of todays pin bar?
  • #12,476
  • Aug 12, 2008 5:21pm Aug 12, 2008 5:21pm
Quoting james16
CHART
Hi, Jim,

What kind of confirmation bar you are waiting for?

I was already in the trade, short at the break of pin bar, now -38 pips. need more practise.
  • #12,477
  • Aug 12, 2008 5:27pm Aug 12, 2008 5:27pm
Quoting eltrot1979
Combing the last two daily bars it looks like one big doji. Should we be concerned by this when considering taking a long position of todays pin bar?
I wouldn't go too crazy with combining bars and what not, of course this is up to you. All my goal is to pick high probability trades. They certainly won't all work out nor do I expect that.

I just like the level we formed at, the rest is up to the market

Just my opinion

Mike
  • #12,478
  • Aug 12, 2008 5:30pm Aug 12, 2008 5:30pm
  •  2mas
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Thanks to James 16 family | 89 Posts
Thanks Mike for the quick reply.
I am ok bro, hanging in there, hope you enjoyed your short vacation.
I ditto that saying that for the sake of Psycology and consistency the price action is what we should look for, not what everbody else is saying or thinking.
So a good setup is a good setup.

Thanks again and good luck
  • #12,479
  • Aug 12, 2008 5:50pm Aug 12, 2008 5:50pm
Quoting mbqb11
I wouldn't go too crazy with combining bars and what not, of course this is up to you. All my goal is to pick high probability trades. They certainly won't all work out nor do I expect that.

I just like the level we formed at, the rest is up to the market

Just my opinion

Mike
Thanks for your prompt reply Mike. It is indeed at a nice level. If the pin bar breaks long I'll keep an eye on what happens should it reach the high of yesterdays pin bar.
  • #12,480
  • Edited 6:13pm Aug 12, 2008 5:58pm | Edited 6:13pm
Quoting y.caesar
Actually, I'm thinking more of the incoming news for USD, which are retail and cpi. While on that subject, can I ask how you manage you trade? Let's say you're in a trade based on a 4H or daily signal already, and there are impending big news for that pair. Do you exit before the news or hold through in the hopeI that the result of the news will confirm the technical signal?
Seeking covered it Y.

I don't worry about the news.

I only stay away from NFP Friday. (In fact I don't bother too much with trading Fridays at all. It's beer o'clock /wind down time here in oz by then. )

I've spent hundreds of hours back testing the set ups I'm trading.
I never took news into account then. Why should I now? The success rate was a function of ignoring it.

The news often creates our set up. We enter it by sight though. Don't need to know 'what' caused it.

Overall it comes back to what I said about back testing.
My confidence in my set ups is based around it. I'm not going to sabotage the results by adding news watching.

.
EDIT: To add this quote from mike. Especially the highlighted bit! If a news event causes a fail too...who cares...
Quoting mbqb11
I wouldn't go too crazy with combining bars and what not, of course this is up to you. All my goal is to pick high probability trades. They certainly won't all work out nor do I expect that.

I just like the level we formed at, the rest is up to the market
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
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