No Brainer Trades

Quoting Petea1uk

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BRV,

"Sovereign wealth funds are apparently the ones to blame for the increase in particularly EUR and GBP today; with New York sellers taking them down again later in the day. Japanese exporters have heavily sold USD/JPY, with option barrier protection at 100.50, 111.00, etc. 100.40 has been noted with sell orders".

Dear BRV,
as a newcomer may I first thankyou for such an excellent thread. It is now my first port of call after work!
My question to you is (I am still in the early stages of my education) where do you get such information as that above? How are you privy to such detail?
I am not questioning the authentisity of it, just where do you find it?

Regards,
Pete
PS. I apoligise if you have already answered this question previously.

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Quoting CindyXXXX

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If you're here to just copy poeples trades from the "trade calls" then I think you're letting a valuable resource here go to waste...

With a bit of patience and effort you could learn how to trade this method yourself and not rely on othere poeples calls.

Just my 2 pence

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Quoting Grath

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First, a big thank you to pipeye and others who took the time to respond.

Ahah! I think the light begins to dawn here. Maybe. So right now, gbpusd is on the rise at 1.9238, but the trend is down. I find what I think is a strong previous support at 1.9363 - so I propose this to myself as a resistance and get ready to go short at that level.

Am I getting the plot better now?

Thanks.
David

P.S. It's also right near the 23.6 fib - does that help or should I be thinking 50 fib?

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Reading a lot of this IFR research over the past week has brought some crucial points to my attention that I havent had to think about for a while. This post is going to be about bank flows and what to expect from each crucial area.

Option barriers:

I'm talking about no-touch binary options. How they work:
A trader buys an option on EUR at 1.5000. From the point he buys it until the time it expires, the trader makes money if the option strike (1.5000) IS NOT hit. When there are significant flows at these levels, market makers will avoid these prices from getting hit, and price will reverse. When the strike IS hit, the option is cleared and money switches hands. Price now has the opportunity to grind in the direction of the original option level; to a greater magnitude. If the option expires, then the level is subject to a greater chance of reversal, especially if it is in an area commanding a lot of attention.

Option expirations:

Options bought and sold in the OTC market are private deals between counterparties. They expire all the time, each and every day. The bulk of currency options, (European style traded on exchanges) expire on a specific day of the month, where there is usually a lot of volatility. But every day there is big money flowing into the binaries with specific interest keeping price away from or in favor of these levels. When option levels get taken out its nothing more than oppotunity for price to maintain the current trend.

Stop Loss Orders:

Basic stops on trades. eg I'm long EUR at 1.5500. My stop loss is 1.4950. Lets pretend for a second that my trade is a big one valued at about 300-500mm.
Logically: my stop gets hit on my long order, now decreasing the momentum to the upside. Price continues moving down.
No logic but happens oh so often: Market makers want to take out those stops and keep price moving in their favor. Price reverses.

Limit orders to buy or sell:

By far the most influential, when big money gets stacked up to buy or sell a currency at a specified price and orders essentially advertised to the market to gain momentum and get everyone on board.

Stop buy or sell orders:

Stop buys are above the current price. Stop sells are below the current price. Big stop buy or sell orders can have the same effect as regular limts; they are put around crucial support and resistance areas, so that if a level gets breached, price can continue. These play well in trending environments upon breakouts of support and resistance.

How to know where all these orders are:

Again the listed provider has some input into these areas and have offered the best I have seen to non-institutionalized traders. Psychological impact of people knowing about big selling or buying going on after-the-fact can also move the market. For instance, there was good rumor the other day about a "Swiss Bank" selling EUR at 1.5480; this impact shot the market down on a second approach, and once a crucial 1.5500 option expired at 10am, EUR had no problem using it as a reactionary level.

But the bottom line is that real money buying and selling throughout the day is going to keep price moving along and take out everything I just listed. But when the factors above are larger than life, they turn the market; plain and simple. Again the basics in terms of watching indices, economic indicators and following market sentiment still hold the best, but knowledge of the above definitely helps.

Just the beginning but I'll keep on going throughout the day.....just wanted to shine some light on this stuff as its been on the top of my head the past week in my regular reading. Keep you posted.

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Quoting rogerdoger

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are there still "no-brainer" type trades in a trending market other than strong psychological levels, option barriers, etc?

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Quoting CindyXXXX

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Anyone catch those shorts on EU, AU, GU, EJ, or GJ? Just couldn't bring myself to sell so low - wish I had!

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Quoting CindyXXXX

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Can someone please explain what is meant by a "thin" market?

Cheers

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Quoting Iron-man

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That just means there is less volume. Less buyers and sellers. Which means more volatility in price moves. If the GBPUSD is trading at 1.9000 and there are buyers so it ticks up to 1.9001, if there are no sellers then it ticks up again to 1.9002 and so on until sellers are found and vice versa. That's why news spikes are spikes. You will also hear people use the term illiquid or low liquidity. Just a basic supply and demand issue. The market is yelling, "Currencies over here, get your currencies over here." but no one is listening because we all went to the Olympics.

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Quoting aerio

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EUR/USD Long @ 1.5440

It was a good resistance during last wave up, metatrader does not show a spike on June 15 to 1.5440 because it happened during melbourne trading on sunday. The only thing that I am scared of is that it might be hit during FOMC announcement, that's why I will use 25-30 pips stop.

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Quoting forexpert

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If you are so nervous, I would tighten the gap a little more, like 10 to 20 pips. I know you would not gain that much either way but it is a confidence level.

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Quoting SABTrader

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I'm seeing a lot of things reversing
oil over 115
and gold over 820
so have gone
long EU 1.4931
stop loss @ 40 pips initially
not sure where i should exit as i know this is against the trend
any suggestions
steve

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Quoting SABTrader

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I'm seeing a lot of things reversing
oil over 115
and gold over 820
so have gone
long EU 1.4931
stop loss @ 40 pips initially
not sure where i should exit as i know this is against the trend
any suggestions
steve

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Quoting finswin56

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Very few trades posted here lately, which is understandable.
Here's my try at the pair I can't seem to get a handle on.
Has to be some solid reaction here at 108

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