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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #16,561
  • Aug 11, 2008 5:34am Aug 11, 2008 5:34am
Quoting ira
but in one Russian internet magazine I came across the description of your starategy Phillip, they were testing different setups. So, if you are interested, I can give more information, it maybe interesting for other members too.
We'd appreciate it if you share with us this site .
  • #16,562
  • Aug 11, 2008 9:34am Aug 11, 2008 9:34am
Hello, I am new with this strategy and would be very thankfull if anyone could say if I am right saying that gbp/usd is going to rebound from 8EMA and reach 1,9100 again.
Thanks.
  • #16,563
  • Aug 11, 2008 9:37am Aug 11, 2008 9:37am
Thanks Ira.

Regards/ Krishnan


Quoting ira
I'm sorry Krishnan, I can't give you my view on A/U as I trade onlu E/U and G/U. I sometimes even think to look only at E/U, because it feels so good when you watch one pair, it gives you a feeling of comfort, you are used to its movements and you know its tricks, sometimes you can even say, for sure, where it goes. But I still continue to watch G/U, because it's very like E/U, but more volatile, sometimes there are better signals than on EUR.
I am absolutely convinced that 2 pairs can give you all necessary pips.

Regards, Ira
  • #16,564
  • Aug 11, 2008 10:07am Aug 11, 2008 10:07am
Quoting sarasxxx
Hello, I am new with this strategy and would be very thankfull if anyone could say if I am right saying that gbp/usd is going to rebound from 8EMA and reach 1,9100 again.
Thanks.
hi,
it is possible, but i see support @1.9130, MACD is showing nothing.
  • #16,565
  • Aug 11, 2008 11:03am Aug 11, 2008 11:03am
Quoting Copino
hi,
it is possible, but i see support @1.9130, MACD is showing nothing.
how do you determine that support ?
  • #16,566
  • Aug 11, 2008 11:08am Aug 11, 2008 11:08am
Is anyone familiar with FX AccuCharts ?
  • #16,567
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:56pm Aug 11, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting Shaman
We'd appreciate it if you share with us this site .
I don't want to look it like advertisment, so if anyone wants the address PM me.
  • #16,568
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:15pm Aug 11, 2008 1:15pm
Quoting ira
if anyone wants the address PM me.
You don't need of somebodies PM, just paste "FX AccuCharts" into Google or any other search engine.
Ben
  • #16,569
  • Aug 11, 2008 2:19pm Aug 11, 2008 2:19pm
Hello im relatively new at forex and i liked very much this trade method, but i have the problem that i dont understand very much listening english, there is a written version of the spoken classes ? please i really need it, if there is a spanish version better thank you
  • #16,570
  • Aug 11, 2008 3:00pm Aug 11, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting sarasxxx
how do you determine that support ?
hi,
on friday, last candlestick closed @1.9134 then price bounced off and went up against trend to 8 ema.According to my chart on 0000 GMT and 0400 GMT.
  • #16,571
  • Aug 11, 2008 3:04pm Aug 11, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting Copino
hi,
on friday, last candlestick closed @1.9134 then price bounced off and went up against trend to 8 ema.According to my chart on 0000 GMT and 0400 GMT.
thanks
  • #16,572
  • Edited 5:43pm Aug 11, 2008 5:42pm | Edited 5:43pm
Quoting ira
Hello everyone, long time not to see you!

Here is my take on EUR:

Interesting that on the daily price came to the 200, which it touched only in August of the previous year! But unlike last year, this year it went through 200 in one go. Could that be a signal of the whole trend change or price will start range around it? Anyway it's interesting that price went from 1.60 to the 1.52 in a month - 800 pips. It went down from the huge range channel which was established on the daily from 11/03/08 till yesterday, and may retest this point (1.5300). Price went down haivily without retracment, daily is very oversold. Price now sits on the price level, which is also a support.



Now 4h, beautiful down trend with 4 retracments to the 21, which means 4 positive trades. Price went very far from 8MA, but there is no signal for buy yet, there is a possibility of some retracment, but still it's too early. Here is the first sigh - doji, which is also a pin bar but still too early. MACD is also oversold.



So, I think there is possible long with first target 8MA, will wait fro RB and candles conformation. This is counter trend trade, so risky, that's why b/e must be put as soon as possible. There is always a chance that trend will continue to go on.


My plan:
long if there is RB signal and enough candle conformation, as it's a counter trend trade, so one lot only. 1TP is 8MA, then on trailing, SL below pin + spread + fudge factor.


if long will be too sharp, or there will be no long, I'll look for TC or BOZ to enter the trend.

Hi Ira, good to have you back...I enjoyed your analysis of the EUro, I was wondering did you take the odds for this counter trend trade and bag in the pips. I made a paper trade on the 8 oclock candle this morning which pierced the 8ema, made some good pips but Im dubious whether I would have taken the trade on if I went live.

Chandra
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"Be the change you want to see in the world" - Gandhi
  • #16,573
  • Edited 9:49pm Aug 11, 2008 9:27pm | Edited 9:49pm
Quoting BenStevo
I thought I would post some of my research on a high reliability setup that I really like. I believe Phillip has referred to this one of these setups as a Phillip morning/evening star.
I found it helpful in turning to live trading as I had some solid statistics to work with, knowing that this setup produces around 85% success rate. It also lets me place a tighter stoploss, knowing that if the price reverses to the SL level, it will most likely keep going against me.
I hope this is helpful to others like me! It may be pretty basic to some....Perhaps others have useful research they can share also?

This candle setup also seems quite reliable for CT trades but I haven't tested it out properly yet.
Thanks BenStevo for sharing your testing results with us. Found the article very interesting.
Would be interested in seeing what results you get for CT trades too when you get around to testing it.
  • #16,574
  • Edited 11:08pm Aug 11, 2008 10:29pm | Edited 11:08pm
I wish I noticed the double top on the weekly early I would have known what to expect.

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But I would expect, now, for the EUR/USD have a retracement or consolication before moving down again.
  • #16,575
  • Aug 11, 2008 11:23pm Aug 11, 2008 11:23pm
If the EuroDollar Double Top formation (see Daily & Weekly charts) completes, then we will be in the 1.4675 price area. The formation tends to complete with a drop equivalent to the difference between the base and the high of the formation. This drop is measured down from the base line. I measured about 673 pips as the difference (1.6023 - 1.5350) which, subtracted from the base of 1.5350, yields 1.4677. Do your own analysis as my lines were quickly visually estimated and drawn, and so may be off some pips here and there.
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  • #16,576
  • Aug 12, 2008 2:55am Aug 12, 2008 2:55am
I am anticipating that the euro is going to bounce of the 1.4800 to the 8EMA. This is going to be a counter trend == high risk. Awaiting for signal candle. What are your takes on this.

Many thanks
Chandra
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"Be the change you want to see in the world" - Gandhi
  • #16,577
  • Aug 12, 2008 3:48am Aug 12, 2008 3:48am
Well I have no idea where this pair is going. it fall more then 1100 pips in less then a month. So my guess is that now is a very risky time to trade eur.
1. it is possible that it found support on the 365 on daily chart and bounce back up
2. It can go beyond 365 like it did on 4 hours

So i will stay away from this pair for the moment

Good piping everyone http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #16,578
  • Aug 12, 2008 4:41am Aug 12, 2008 4:41am
Good Morning, I'm back from Holidays,

EURUSD: there was a nice high probability TC down trade yesterday on 4h to take something like 50 pips.
After that, it went up to the 8EMA, it could continue to go up to the 21EMA or maybe show a nice TC down again, I would take it with a trailing stop.
  • #16,579
  • Aug 12, 2008 6:27am Aug 12, 2008 6:27am
Quoting cchoudhu
Hi Ira, good to have you back...I enjoyed your analysis of the EUro, I was wondering did you take the odds for this counter trend trade and bag in the pips. I made a paper trade on the 8 oclock candle this morning which pierced the 8ema, made some good pips but Im dubious whether I would have taken the trade on if I went live.

Chandra
Hi Chandra, no I didn't take this CT. There was a gap, which indicated down mood to me, and a gravestone doji. Nothing here showed me enough to take this VA.
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  • #16,580
  • Edited 7:39am Aug 12, 2008 6:46am | Edited 7:39am
10:00 GMTLong 110.33
s/l 109.81
risky trade, big s/l, reduced position size accordingly

edit 12:30 GMT: USD trade balance better than expected, uj rising 15pips and saving me from being stopped out for now, let's see if price will turn around.....

edit 12:39 GMT: stopped out for -53 pips
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