No Brainer Trades

Quoting The Fxorce

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Oil moves in $10 steps. I would not be interested in buying EU until oil touches $110. Then oil should move to $120 and then back down to $100.

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Quoting manistra

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Hi,

Is there an easy way to have real time spx , oil and gold
data somewhere ? I have alpari live and demo MT4 account
but they do not have it.

Thanks in advance....

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Quoting manistra

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Hi,

Is there an easy way to have real time spx , oil and gold
data somewhere ? I have alpari live and demo MT4 account
but they do not have it.

Thanks in advance....

Ignored

Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Reading a lot of this IFR research over the past week has brought some crucial points to my attention that I havent had to think about for a while. This post is going to be about bank flows and what to expect from each crucial area.

Option barriers:

I'm talking about no-touch binary options. How they work:
A trader buys an option on EUR at 1.5000. From the point he buys it until the time it expires, the trader makes money if the option strike (1.5000) IS NOT hit. When there are significant flows at these levels, market makers will avoid these prices from getting hit, and price will reverse. When the strike IS hit, the option is cleared and money switches hands. Price now has the opportunity to grind in the direction of the original option level; to a greater magnitude. If the option expires, then the level is subject to a greater chance of reversal, especially if it is in an area commanding a lot of attention.

Option expirations:

Options bought and sold in the OTC market are private deals between counterparties. They expire all the time, each and every day. The bulk of currency options, (European style traded on exchanges) expire on a specific day of the month, where there is usually a lot of volatility. But every day there is big money flowing into the binaries with specific interest keeping price away from or in favor of these levels. When option levels get taken out its nothing more than oppotunity for price to maintain the current trend.

Stop Loss Orders:

Basic stops on trades. eg I'm long EUR at 1.5500. My stop loss is 1.4950. Lets pretend for a second that my trade is a big one valued at about 300-500mm.
Logically: my stop gets hit on my long order, now decreasing the momentum to the upside. Price continues moving down.
No logic but happens oh so often: Market makers want to take out those stops and keep price moving in their favor. Price reverses.

Limit orders to buy or sell:

By far the most influential, when big money gets stacked up to buy or sell a currency at a specified price and orders essentially advertised to the market to gain momentum and get everyone on board.

Stop buy or sell orders:

Stop buys are above the current price. Stop sells are below the current price. Big stop buy or sell orders can have the same effect as regular limts; they are put around crucial support and resistance areas, so that if a level gets breached, price can continue. These play well in trending environments upon breakouts of support and resistance.

How to know where all these orders are:

Again the listed provider has some input into these areas and have offered the best I have seen to non-institutionalized traders. Psychological impact of people knowing about big selling or buying going on after-the-fact can also move the market. For instance, there was good rumor the other day about a "Swiss Bank" selling EUR at 1.5480; this impact shot the market down on a second approach, and once a crucial 1.5500 option expired at 10am, EUR had no problem using it as a reactionary level.

But the bottom line is that real money buying and selling throughout the day is going to keep price moving along and take out everything I just listed. But when the factors above are larger than life, they turn the market; plain and simple. Again the basics in terms of watching indices, economic indicators and following market sentiment still hold the best, but knowledge of the above definitely helps.

Just the beginning but I'll keep on going throughout the day.....just wanted to shine some light on this stuff as its been on the top of my head the past week in my regular reading. Keep you posted.

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Quoting finswin56

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Thanks for that post BRV!

EUR just popped through 1.4900. Talk of option barriers at that level. If I'm reading this correctly (probably not the case), and they were there and are cleared now, it should clear the way for price to decline further, right?

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Quoting finswin56

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Thanks for that post BRV!

EUR just popped through 1.4900. Talk of option barriers at that level. If I'm reading this correctly (probably not the case), and they were there and are cleared now, it should clear the way for price to decline further, right?

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Could, yes, but again these are nothing more than barriers. We dont know the significance of these barriers without knowing the size; just that theyre there. Overall we're looking back to the fundamental hysteria. Just guides here to add a little more color.

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Quoting manistra

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Is there any simple way that we can determine if US central bank intervened buying bucks last week. (If they were buying, but not in public )

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

Disliked

Reading a lot of this IFR research over the past week has brought some crucial points to my attention that I havent had to think about for a while. This post is going to be about bank flows and what to expect from each crucial area.

Option barriers:

I'm talking about no-touch binary options. How they work:
A trader buys an option on EUR at 1.5000. From the point he buys it until the time it expires, the trader makes money if the option strike (1.5000) IS NOT hit. When there are significant flows at these levels, market makers will avoid these prices from getting hit, and price will reverse. When the strike IS hit, the option is cleared and money switches hands. Price now has the opportunity to grind in the direction of the original option level; to a greater magnitude. If the option expires, then the level is subject to a greater chance of reversal, especially if it is in an area commanding a lot of attention.

Option expirations:

Options bought and sold in the OTC market are private deals between counterparties. They expire all the time, each and every day. The bulk of currency options, (European style traded on exchanges) expire on a specific day of the month, where there is usually a lot of volatility. But every day there is big money flowing into the binaries with specific interest keeping price away from or in favor of these levels. When option levels get taken out its nothing more than oppotunity for price to maintain the current trend.

Stop Loss Orders:

Basic stops on trades. eg I'm long EUR at 1.5500. My stop loss is 1.4950. Lets pretend for a second that my trade is a big one valued at about 300-500mm.
Logically: my stop gets hit on my long order, now decreasing the momentum to the upside. Price continues moving down.
No logic but happens oh so often: Market makers want to take out those stops and keep price moving in their favor. Price reverses.

Limit orders to buy or sell:

By far the most influential, when big money gets stacked up to buy or sell a currency at a specified price and orders essentially advertised to the market to gain momentum and get everyone on board.

Stop buy or sell orders:

Stop buys are above the current price. Stop sells are below the current price. Big stop buy or sell orders can have the same effect as regular limts; they are put around crucial support and resistance areas, so that if a level gets breached, price can continue. These play well in trending environments upon breakouts of support and resistance.

How to know where all these orders are:

Again the listed provider has some input into these areas and have offered the best I have seen to non-institutionalized traders. Psychological impact of people knowing about big selling or buying going on after-the-fact can also move the market. For instance, there was good rumor the other day about a "Swiss Bank" selling EUR at 1.5480; this impact shot the market down on a second approach, and once a crucial 1.5500 option expired at 10am, EUR had no problem using it as a reactionary level.

But the bottom line is that real money buying and selling throughout the day is going to keep price moving along and take out everything I just listed. But when the factors above are larger than life, they turn the market; plain and simple. Again the basics in terms of watching indices, economic indicators and following market sentiment still hold the best, but knowledge of the above definitely helps.

Just the beginning but I'll keep on going throughout the day.....just wanted to shine some light on this stuff as its been on the top of my head the past week in my regular reading. Keep you posted.

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Quoting finswin56

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The real question is "Now what?"
How far past the previous lows do we need to get before we can eye <1.500?
I held on to a small part of my EUR and GBP shorts because things seem to be shifting fundamentally. I did sell off most of my positions because I don't like thumbing my nose at such strong S/R's though. But now I'm looking to start shorting those pairs on pull backs again.

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