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Tiki Trader Trades

  • #1,141
  • Aug 7, 2008 9:37pm Aug 7, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I hope you are right... I have been looking at that zone for days now.... but I am getting really nervous... with OIL prices falling so much, CAD is just going through the roof.... I hope it stops soon...
Oil has fallen fairly substantially. It just took it longer than I thought for it to catch up and make the dollar stronger. I guess that traders needed to change their longer term outlook on oil and start to close out their long positions as the price retreated. WHEW! can you imagine being long on oil at the top. 145.00
  • #1,142
  • Aug 7, 2008 9:39pm Aug 7, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting KissFan
Oil has fallen fairly substantially. It just took it longer than I thought for it to catch up and make the dollar stronger. I guess that traders needed to change their longer term outlook on oil and start to close out their long positions as the price retreated. WHEW! can you imagine being long on oil at the top. 145.00

I just noticed. That little green guy I just posted. Didn't he used to throw up? I bet somebody complained. WHIMPS! It looked cool when he blew chunks!!!
  • #1,143
  • Aug 10, 2008 6:41am Aug 10, 2008 6:41am
Juuuuuuust when it's needed....

Quote
Source: Reuters

TBILISI, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Russian fighter jets targeted the the major Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline which carries oil to the West from Asia but missed, Georgia's Economic Development Minister Ekaterina Sharashidze said on Saturday.

"This clearly shows that Russia has not just targeted Georgian economic outlets but international economic outlets in Georgia," she said at a news briefing.

There have been no independent verifications of Russian jets targeting the BTC pipeline. (Reporting by Margarita Antidze, writing by James Kilner, editing by Jon Boyle)
It's amazing how often these coincidences have happened the past half year or so.
For now, this time looks as if the crisis is being sorted before markets open.

T-man, on a separate note, I hope your not getting caught out here without stops??

Quoting KissFan
Oil has fallen fairly substantially. It just took it longer than I thought for it to catch up and make the dollar stronger. I guess that traders needed to change their longer term outlook on oil and start to close out their long positions as the price retreated. WHEW! can you imagine being long on oil at the top. 145.00
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #1,144
  • Aug 10, 2008 6:50am Aug 10, 2008 6:50am
Just to point something else out everybody. These few weeks of the year seem to have less respect for even strong support/resistance levels. I remember making good money here last year, but at the same time seeing uncharacteristic disrespects (lol.... disrespects.. ).
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #1,145
  • Aug 10, 2008 9:40am Aug 10, 2008 9:40am
Jesus, I'm wondering how tiki gonna manage his multi loss position now as my estimated figures he's down over 60% at the moment given that each position he risks only 1%.

* USD/CAD @ 1.0230 -----> current (ask) price @1.06715 ~ 441.5 pips loss ~ -14.72%

* USD/CAD @ 1.0354 -----> current (ask) price @1.06715 ~ 317.5 pips loss ~ -10.58%

Both USD/CAD short position he's risking 1% using 30 pips target hence 30 pips loss equivalent to 1% loss.

* GBP/USD LONG @ 1.9654 Target 50 pips to 1.9702 -----> current (bid) price @1.92046 ~ 449.4 pips loss ~ -9%

* GBP/USD LONG @ 1.9618 Target 30 pips to 1.9748.... with double the risk...!! ------> current (bid) price @1.92046 ~ 413.4 pips loss ~ -27.56%

--------> 14.72 + 10.58 + 9 + 27.56 = -61.86%

I hope he actually risked only 1% ( not 2%) per position otherwise his account already got a margin call.
Trading is the game of fear and greed.
  • #1,146
  • Aug 10, 2008 7:34pm Aug 10, 2008 7:34pm
I did not wait THAT LONG to get out..... !!!!


Quoting Fx chartist
Jesus, I'm wondering how tiki gonna manage his multi loss position now as my estimated figures he's down over 60% at the moment given that each position he risks only 1%.

* USD/CAD @ 1.0230 -----> current (ask) price @1.06715 ~ 441.5 pips loss ~ -14.72%

* USD/CAD @ 1.0354 -----> current (ask) price @1.06715 ~ 317.5 pips loss ~ -10.58%

Both USD/CAD short position he's risking 1% using 30 pips target hence 30 pips loss equivalent to 1% loss.

* GBP/USD LONG @ 1.9654 Target 50 pips to 1.9702 -----> current (bid) price @1.92046 ~ 449.4 pips loss ~ -9%

* GBP/USD LONG @ 1.9618 Target 30 pips to 1.9748.... with double the risk...!! ------> current (bid) price @1.92046 ~ 413.4 pips loss ~ -27.56%

--------> 14.72 + 10.58 + 9 + 27.56 = -61.86%

I hope he actually risked only 1% ( not 2%) per position otherwise his account already got a margin call.
  • #1,147
  • Aug 10, 2008 7:35pm Aug 10, 2008 7:35pm
Quoting Fx chartist
Jesus, I'm wondering how tiki gonna manage his multi loss position now as my estimated figures he's down over 60% at the moment given that each position he risks only 1%.

* USD/CAD @ 1.0230 -----> current (ask) price @1.06715 ~ 441.5 pips loss ~ -14.72%

* USD/CAD @ 1.0354 -----> current (ask) price @1.06715 ~ 317.5 pips loss ~ -10.58%

Both USD/CAD short position he's risking 1% using 30 pips target hence 30 pips loss equivalent to 1% loss.

* GBP/USD LONG @ 1.9654 Target 50 pips to 1.9702 -----> current (bid) price @1.92046 ~ 449.4 pips loss ~ -9%

* GBP/USD LONG @ 1.9618 Target 30 pips to 1.9748.... with double the risk...!! ------> current (bid) price @1.92046 ~ 413.4 pips loss ~ -27.56%

--------> 14.72 + 10.58 + 9 + 27.56 = -61.86%

I hope he actually risked only 1% ( not 2%) per position otherwise his account already got a margin call.
What was the intent of this post?
  • #1,148
  • Aug 10, 2008 10:06pm Aug 10, 2008 10:06pm
Quoting Eklavya
What was the intent of this post?
I think the post was with concern, rather than to be negative to TT.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #1,149
  • Aug 11, 2008 4:52am Aug 11, 2008 4:52am
Quoting bundyraider
I think the post was with concern, rather than to be negative to TT.
When we can avoid, it is best to stay away from conjectures and let the poster clarify. I am not presupposing anything here but yes I did have a doubt regarding the intent here. The post for sure did not make things easy for TT.
  • #1,150
  • Aug 11, 2008 6:42am Aug 11, 2008 6:42am
Quoting Eklavya
When we can avoid, it is best to stay away from conjectures and let the poster clarify. I am not presupposing anything here but yes I did have a doubt regarding the intent here. The post for sure did not make things easy for TT.
I was backing up FX Chartist after it was me who started him down that path. It was you that had a thought of doubt, about his intent. (see I can do that too)

Tiki can look after himself mate.

Tiki,

I'm glad all's good. Like a lot of people here, my heart would sink seeing you at -12% or so again. Your confidence appears to have taken large strides these past months.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #1,151
  • Aug 11, 2008 7:47am Aug 11, 2008 7:47am
@Eklavya: take it easy mate, there is no whatsoever conspiracy here, it's merely my curious to see how other trader gonna handle such a dilemma situation like that.Also, I have experienced many of those situation in the past where I cant simply accept the small loss that later lead to mother of loss hence I'm kind of feeling sorry for him.

@bundyraider: thanks for backing me up, mate. that guy was so sensitive to a fresh guy like me. I'm wondering if my post >100 and nickname was > 1 year old, would he still suspect my post?

@Tiki: hope you're feeling better now, I look forward to your journal mate.
Trading is the game of fear and greed.
  • #1,152
  • Aug 11, 2008 9:15am Aug 11, 2008 9:15am
Quoting Fx chartist
@Eklavya: take it easy mate, there is no whatsoever conspiracy here, it's merely my curious to see how other trader gonna handle such a dilemma situation like that.Also, I have experienced many of those situation in the past where I cant simply accept the small loss that later lead to mother of loss hence I'm kind of feeling sorry for him.

@bundyraider: thanks for backing me up, mate. that guy was so sensitive to a fresh guy like me. I'm wondering if my post >100 and nickname was > 1 year old, would he still suspect my post?

@Tiki: hope you're feeling better now, I look forward to your journal mate.
FxChartist...No harm done...I am also a new guy like you. I was just putting myself in Tiki's shoes and ideally I would have liked to explain myself how I managed the situation rather than someone pointing out. But with your post..no harm done buddy..

Regarding accepting small losses..I have gone down that path. The way I manage it is that I don't take any trades without a StopLoss and I don't ever move my StopLoss further away from my entry price hoping price will change course. That is one gospel truth I believe in and follow. I might change systems, try out various techniques..but never will take a trade without a defined StopLoss. Also, my initial StopLoss is based on well defined plan and not ad hoc. Therefore the twitch to move the StopLoss is also less. Earlier I used to keep StopLoss very close so that I could increase my position size.

The other issue with the "mother of all losses" is that in normal back testing, we cannot predict how often we will get them. Therefore when we do get them, we are unprepared to deal with it and that messes everything else up too. So in a trading plan, if you have a very high win rate and very low lose rate, define your maximum loss and be more conservative when estimating how often you will get a loss. This will better prepare you when you do get the loss or losses.
  • #1,153
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:25pm Aug 11, 2008 1:25pm
Just curious... what does Jesus have to do with Tiki's trades?

Quoting Fx chartist
Jesus, I'm wondering how tiki gonna manage his multi loss position now as my estimated figures he's down over 60% at the moment given that each position he risks only 1%.

* USD/CAD @ 1.0230 -----> current (ask) price @1.06715 ~ 441.5 pips loss ~ -14.72%

* USD/CAD @ 1.0354 -----> current (ask) price @1.06715 ~ 317.5 pips loss ~ -10.58%

Both USD/CAD short position he's risking 1% using 30 pips target hence 30 pips loss equivalent to 1% loss.

* GBP/USD LONG @ 1.9654 Target 50 pips to 1.9702 -----> current (bid) price @1.92046 ~ 449.4 pips loss ~ -9%

* GBP/USD LONG @ 1.9618 Target 30 pips to 1.9748.... with double the risk...!! ------> current (bid) price @1.92046 ~ 413.4 pips loss ~ -27.56%

--------> 14.72 + 10.58 + 9 + 27.56 = -61.86%

I hope he actually risked only 1% ( not 2%) per position otherwise his account already got a margin call.
  • #1,154
  • Edited 6:22pm Aug 11, 2008 6:10pm | Edited 6:22pm
OK.... it is time..... I have spent the last three or four days licking my wounds.......

I will make it short and sweet.....

I did not follow my own rules.... and I have paid the price once again....

For those of you who know me... you know it is not the first time.... and this will not be the first time I pick myself up and drag myself out of the hole I dug myself....

ALL four of the last trades went the wrong way as everyone well knows..

If I had followed my own rules.. my account would now be down about 12%... getting out of the trades at no more then 3% loss per trade... and honestly... that would have been great.... !!! Not even a big deal....

I lost 37% of my account..................... because I could not bring myself to close the trades.... HOPING things would turn around...

I do not need the lectures..... I know them already......

I will post here what my signature last said.....

TT5.. 28 live trades. 26 Wins, 2 loss YTD +17.5 % +1109 pips

Then now as of this point.. as far as I am concerned... I start again........

For those of you who want to say this is about not using stops... that is not true.... I watched day after day and could have closed out the trades at any point.... I simply did not do it....

I still believe 100% in TT5... I will continue it... there will be some new rules....

# 1.... no more then 2 trades open at any time...
# 2.... I will take fewer trades and look for better PA set ups....

I still will not use stops....

OK Anyone is free to chime in here.... feel free.....
  • #1,155
  • Aug 11, 2008 6:21pm Aug 11, 2008 6:21pm
TT5 Long @ 1.9094

Target 50 pips to 1.9144
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,156
  • Aug 11, 2008 7:12pm Aug 11, 2008 7:12pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
TT5 Long @ 1.9094

Target 50 pips to 1.9144
i think this is a good one, there is a PB on 4h.


best regards.
  • #1,157
  • Aug 11, 2008 7:13pm Aug 11, 2008 7:13pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I lost 37% of my account..................... because I could not bring myself to close the trades.... HOPING things would turn around...
That's what I was worried might be happening. Wasn't worried about you not using stops. Was worried that you were on a "hope" run.

We've all been there man. That's why we all recognised it so easily!

Gotta train your brain to recognise "I Hope" situations and ambush them.

I doubt anyone's coming to your thread to wait for slip ups to lecture you about. The only regular threads I read are the "James16 Chart Thread" and your journal.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #1,158
  • Aug 11, 2008 7:22pm Aug 11, 2008 7:22pm
I saw the " I hope" situation after the first day..... there was no excuse.... except for my usual stupidity.... NOW I WILL MAKE THOSE PIPS AND THOSE $$$s back.....

Quoting bundyraider
That's what I was worried might be happening. Wasn't worried about you not using stops. Was worried that you were on a "hope" run.

We've all been there man. That's why we all recognised it so easily!

Gotta train your brain to recognise "I Hope" situations and ambush them.

I doubt anyone's coming to your thread to wait for slip ups to lecture you about. The only regular threads I read are the "James16 Chart Thread" and your journal.
  • #1,159
  • Aug 11, 2008 7:24pm Aug 11, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
OK.... it is time..... I have spent the last three or four days licking my wounds.......

I will make it short and sweet.....

I did not follow my own rules.... and I have paid the price once again....

For those of you who know me... you know it is not the first time.... and this will not be the first time I pick myself up and drag myself out of the hole I dug myself....

ALL four of the last trades went the wrong way as everyone well knows..

If I had followed my own rules.. my account would now be down about 12%... getting out of the trades at no more then 3% loss per trade... and honestly... that would have been great.... !!! Not even a big deal....

I lost 37% of my account..................... because I could not bring myself to close the trades.... HOPING things would turn around...

I do not need the lectures..... I know them already......

I will post here what my signature last said.....

TT5.. 28 live trades. 26 Wins, 2 loss YTD +17.5 % +1109 pips

Then now as of this point.. as far as I am concerned... I start again........

For those of you who want to say this is about not using stops... that is not true.... I watched day after day and could have closed out the trades at any point.... I simply did not do it....

I still believe 100% in TT5... I will continue it... there will be some new rules....

# 1.... no more then 2 trades open at any time...
# 2.... I will take fewer trades and look for better PA set ups....

I still will not use stops....

OK Anyone is free to chime in here.... feel free.....
It's been a while since I've written to you Tiki. The only thing I can note about this, because I've done the same thing before, is to keep moving man. I did this recently on one of my friends' accounts and I had to pay him back for it, which sucks- believe me.

The road to success isn't silverlined and it's far from smooth. Bookmark your post and put it on your wall (It doesn't matter how corny that is, I have a lot of them on my wall from my mistakes), it will help when you need the memory of it.

I hope you get back up just like you did last time my man. You went from being at a loss of 13 or 14% to being at an overall gain of 17%. That's something in itself and, if you can do that, you have this down brother and you can definitely do it again. BTW, I've been watching your journal a lot and I like the tt5 style, I think it suits you great. Just keep on truckin'.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #1,160
  • Aug 11, 2008 7:26pm Aug 11, 2008 7:26pm
I don't see a Pin bar on either Alpari or IBFX charts....

The trade really is based on being so far away from the 5 ema... both on daily AND WEEKLY too.......

Quoting giraia_br
i think this is a good one, there is a PB on 4h.


best regards.
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