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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #16,541
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:57pm Aug 8, 2008 11:57pm
Quoting SpiderSystem
Do you think on Monday will open under 1,50?
I never have any idea on what price will the market open on Monday, and friday's euro daily candle is fully red/bearish.. this thing is wicked !!!
  • #16,542
  • Aug 9, 2008 3:52am Aug 9, 2008 3:52am
Thank you Phillip and Nadia! I see that July was a difficult month, so I had chosen right time for my vocation .
  • #16,543
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:48pm Aug 9, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting ira
Thank you Phillip and Nadia! I see that July was a difficult month, so I had chosen right time for my vocation .
It looks like you know something we did not. Please let us know when you take leave again.
  • #16,544
  • Aug 9, 2008 1:35pm Aug 9, 2008 1:35pm
I feel the same about EURUSD. I would be interested in hearing your take on AUDUSD...

Thanks,
Krishnan

quote=ira;2154306]Hello everyone, long time not to see you!

Here is my take on EUR:

Interesting that on the daily price came to the 200, which it touched only in August of the previous year! But unlike last year, this year it went through 200 in one go. Could that be a signal of the whole trend change or price will start range around it? Anyway it's interesting that price went from 1.60 to the 1.52 in a month - 800 pips. It went down from the huge range channel which was established on the daily from 11/03/08 till yesterday, and may retest this point (1.5300). Price went down haivily without retracment, daily is very oversold. Price now sits on the price level, which is also a support.



Now 4h, beautiful down trend with 4 retracments to the 21, which means 4 positive trades. Price went very far from 8MA, but there is no signal for buy yet, there is a possibility of some retracment, but still it's too early. Here is the first sigh - doji, which is also a pin bar but still too early. MACD is also oversold.



So, I think there is possible long with first target 8MA, will wait fro RB and candles conformation. This is counter trend trade, so risky, that's why b/e must be put as soon as possible. There is always a chance that trend will continue to go on.


My plan:
long if there is RB signal and enough candle conformation, as it's a counter trend trade, so one lot only. 1TP is 8MA, then on trailing, SL below pin + spread + fudge factor.



if long will be too sharp, or there will be no long, I'll look for TC or BOZ to enter the trend.

[/quote]
  • #16,545
  • Aug 9, 2008 2:02pm Aug 9, 2008 2:02pm
Quoting SpiderSystem
Do you think on Monday will open under 1,50?
nobody can say it for sure,but i have done some weekly analyse,i think eu can goes down near the blue circle/weekly 89ma next week .and look at the macd on weekly chart ,it breaked the ziro line after almost 2years and i think it will be more bearish during next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #16,546
  • Aug 9, 2008 3:43pm Aug 9, 2008 3:43pm
Hi,
Maybe I’m repeating this info here but still there’re many people who don’t know the meaning of different abbreviations that are commonly used on the forum. That’s why I collected the ones I know in the list below. I hope it can help.

TC – trend continuation
RT – round top
RB – round bottom
VT – V top (aggressive turn around)
VB – V bottom (aggressive turn around)
TP – target profit
RR – risk reward (ratio)
SR – support resistance
SL – stop loss
BE – break even
TL – trend line
TF – time frame
IT – inside top
IB – inside bottom
PM – private message
EA – Expert Adviser
TS – trading system
IM – instant message
BOZ – bounce over zero
ZB – zero break
HD – hidden divergence
PA – price action
b/c – because

There’re also 3 abbreviations I’ve encountered on the thread but I was unable to find out what they were meaning: SA, GU, CT. Maybe someone can finish the list
  • #16,547
  • Aug 9, 2008 3:52pm Aug 9, 2008 3:52pm
Quoting Jacek
Hi,
Maybe I’m repeating this info here but still there’re many people who don’t know the meaning of different abbreviations that are commonly used on the forum. That’s why I collected the ones I know in the list below. I hope it can help.

There’re also 3 abbreviations I’ve encountered on the thread but I was unable to find out what they were meaning: SA, GU, CT. Maybe someone can finish the list
GU is probably cable: GBP/USD
  • #16,548
  • Aug 9, 2008 4:14pm Aug 9, 2008 4:14pm
CT - Counter Trend
  • #16,549
  • Aug 9, 2008 5:54pm Aug 9, 2008 5:54pm
Quoting Rasmus
Hi all , firstly thanks for all the good work here, this method seems very efficient and i am currently working through all the material here. In fact i am trading it live on my tradestation account (with minilots , and i would like to know if there is a MACD colored indicator for TS ? Unfortunatly, the one on FXtrade site is only plotting lines (http://www.fxtradeblog.com/tools.html#tradestation). Thanks Rasmus
Found MACD colored indicator for tradestation here :
http://www.tazatek.com/free-indicato...-ii-indicator/
Hope that'll help tradestation users.
  • #16,550
  • Aug 10, 2008 4:44am Aug 10, 2008 4:44am
Quoting Krishnan
I feel the same about EURUSD. I would be interested in hearing your take on AUDUSD...

Thanks,
Krishnan
I'm sorry Krishnan, I can't give you my view on A/U as I trade onlu E/U and G/U. I sometimes even think to look only at E/U, because it feels so good when you watch one pair, it gives you a feeling of comfort, you are used to its movements and you know its tricks, sometimes you can even say, for sure, where it goes. But I still continue to watch G/U, because it's very like E/U, but more volatile, sometimes there are better signals than on EUR.
I am absolutely convinced that 2 pairs can give you all necessary pips.

Regards, Ira
  • #16,551
  • Edited 4:49am Aug 10, 2008 4:48am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting Phillip Nel
It looks like you know something we did not. Please let us know when you take leave again.
hahahaaa, no problem!

I don't know if this has already been discussed (I haven't read posts in July yet), but in one Russian internet magazine I came across the description of your starategy Phillip, they were testing different setups. So, if you are interested, I can give more information, it maybe interesting for other members too.
  • #16,552
  • Aug 10, 2008 10:29am Aug 10, 2008 10:29am
Quoting Jacek
Hi,
Maybe I’m repeating this info here but still there’re many people who don’t know the meaning of different abbreviations that are commonly used on the forum. That’s why I collected the ones I know in the list below. I hope it can help.

TC – trend continuation
RT – round top
RB – round bottom
VT – V top (aggressive turn around)
VB – V bottom (aggressive turn around)
TP – target profit
RR – risk reward (ratio)
SR – support resistance
SL – stop loss
BE – break even
TL – trend line
TF – time frame
IT – inside top
IB – inside bottom
PM – private message
EA – Expert Adviser
TS – trading system
IM – instant message
BOZ – bounce over zero
ZB – zero break
HD – hidden divergence
PA – price action
b/c – because

There’re also 3 abbreviations I’ve encountered on the thread but I was unable to find out what they were meaning: SA, GU, CT. Maybe someone can finish the list
SA - support area, RA - resistance area
also add E/U - euro/usd , swissie - usd/chf, loonie - usd/cad
nice job Jacek,this abbreviation list could be posted on beginning of this forum
  • #16,553
  • Aug 10, 2008 12:51pm Aug 10, 2008 12:51pm
Hi,
I’d like to share with you my ‘Money Management – Profit or Loss on the Forex Market’ table I worked out on the basis I learned from numerous Phillip and many experienced traders lessons on this thread and Forex literature I’ve read. In this table you can only make calculation of your profit or loss after one month up to one year. For making this computations you need to assume for a month or a day the AVERAGE stop loss, reward, spread, risk (percentage of your capital engaged in one position), amount of trades won and lost, amount of trades with double win or loss and trades put to break even with no reward. You can perform calculation on a monthly or daily basis setting “ 1 “ in the field “Compilation for one month” for monthly calculation or setting the number of average trading days in the same field for daily calculations ( the name of the field will change to “Amount of trading days a month” ). The table computes automatically the following data:
- Maximum amount of lots you can trade
- Average daily profit
- Average monthly profit
- Size of your account at the end of the month
- Average increase at your account at the end of each month
- Average amount of pips gained per month
- Your efficiency
- Maximum of number of consecutive losses
- Number of consecutive losses for 20% draw down
Aside you will find graphical representation of your progress. You can also put the number of maximum lots the broker allows you to trade if there is such a limitation at your broker’s platform.
I’ve tested the table numerous times and seems to me it works good. There’s one really nice conclusion from these computations: Gaining only 83 pips a month on average and risking 2 % of your capital per trade with average 25 pips stop loss you can double your account after 1 year.
Using very safe risk of 1% you still need only 166 pips a month for the same outcome - it means 17 days gaining only 10 pips a day. If you remember about that you'll see that it will be much easier to combat the two biggest enemies: fear and greed. (This figure will change when you assume different average stop loss as then you will be allowed to trade with different amount of lots keeping the same assumed risk). The main purpose of this table is to allow you to run the proper money management system that is very important in this business what Phillip repeated many times. Sorry for the small letters under the table but you should understand, it’s all about money. I’ve created the table with my best knowledge and hope you will find it helpful.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Money Management.jpg Size: 188 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Money Management - Excel 97 - 2003 v. 01.zip   21 KB | 608 downloads
File Type: zip Money Management - Excel 97 - 2003 v. 02.zip   22 KB | 533 downloads
File Type: zip Money Management - Excel 2007 v. 01.zip   31 KB | 731 downloads
  • #16,554
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:37pm Aug 10, 2008 3:37pm
Quoting ira
hahahaaa, no problem!

I don't know if this has already been discussed (I haven't read posts in July yet), but in one Russian internet magazine I came across the description of your starategy Phillip, they were testing different setups. So, if you are interested, I can give more information, it maybe interesting for other members too.
Hi
Yes I will be interested. You can PM me or e-mail me.
Thanks
  • #16,555
  • Aug 10, 2008 6:41pm Aug 10, 2008 6:41pm
Sorry for the delay on this...
Phillips original MP3 and chart is on post 16532
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Daily Wrapup 8 August 2008.doc   24 KB | 584 downloads
  • #16,556
  • Aug 10, 2008 10:05pm Aug 10, 2008 10:05pm
thanks a lot Ben.....for your hard work!!!
  • #16,557
  • Aug 10, 2008 10:30pm Aug 10, 2008 10:30pm
Quoting BenStevo
Sorry for the delay on this...
Phillips original MP3 and chart is on post 16532
  • #16,558
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:53pm Aug 10, 2008 11:53pm
I thought I would post some of my research on a high reliability setup that I really like. I believe Phillip has referred to this one of these setups as a Phillip morning/evening star.
I found it helpful in turning to live trading as I had some solid statistics to work with, knowing that this setup produces around 85% success rate. It also lets me place a tighter stoploss, knowing that if the price reverses to the SL level, it will most likely keep going against me.
I hope this is helpful to others like me! It may be pretty basic to some....Perhaps others have useful research they can share also?

This candle setup also seems quite reliable for CT trades but I haven't tested it out properly yet.

Oh, the backtesting is based on the same candle closing times that Phillip uses (I can't immediately recall where this is placed compared to GMT).
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc multiple doji morning and evening stars.doc   149 KB | 896 downloads
  • #16,559
  • Aug 11, 2008 2:19am Aug 11, 2008 2:19am
Quoting islandtrader
still long on second half, trailed stop manually on 1hour and 15min consolidation areas after breakout of May highs. s/l set to 1.0716
usd/chf trade from Thursday 7th 16pm TC finally stopped out.
long 1.0592, first t/p +18, second t/p 225, total 121.5 pips

Usually I don't hold a position that long and not over the weekend, but this rally didn't retrace conciderably and just kept me in the trade. Very nice.
Attached Image
  • #16,560
  • Aug 11, 2008 3:16am Aug 11, 2008 3:16am
Long CFD Trade EUR/USD date 11/08/2008 at 07:39:16h (local 09:39h)
Timezone: GMT+2:00

Setup for this morning:

Target 1 ema(8) = 1.5049 (Potential Profit = 56 pips)
Price = 1.4993
Stop loss = 1.4943

Chart timeframe 1h indicates Trend Continuation (TC)
Lim Sell order at 1.5040
Stop loss at 1.4944

The trade was closed manually at 1.5035
Profit = +42 pips

Chart TF 4h on left side and next to it the chart with TF 1h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd4h11082008-01a.jpg Size: 297 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1h11082008-01a.jpg Size: 199 KB
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