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  • #2,701
  • Aug 10, 2008 1:39pm Aug 10, 2008 1:39pm
Quoting Grath
First, I'm a real newbie, trying to learn to apply the NB technique. I would appreciate critique on the following from any real trader:

Various press articles have said that 1.5 having been breached, the pair could now go down to 1.47 or 1.46

Chart-gazing, I find there is some support (Feb and Jan) on and around 1.4761, the 76 fib from the last major wave. The 1.476 area has been used as both support and resistance, but I also find support around the 1.49 area.

Applying what I have learned in this thread, I would prepare to set up a long at 1.4765, not the 1.49 area.

Or maybe I should just forget this and focus my chart-gazing at the 1.46 area?

Critique?

Thanks.
To be honest, considering you're a newbie, the first thing you should focus on is the trend. And currently, the intermediate trend is down. Now you should look to broken areas of previous support to act as resistance. When you have established what looks like an appropriate resistance level, then you should look to sell there into the current trend. Once you have a good handle on the technique of "Selling the rallies in the downtrend" and "Buying the dips in the uptrend", then you should consider looking for counter trend bounces. Just my 2 cents.
  • #2,702
  • Aug 10, 2008 6:10pm Aug 10, 2008 6:10pm
What a gap!
  • #2,703
  • Aug 10, 2008 6:22pm Aug 10, 2008 6:22pm
Quoting pipeye
To be honest, considering you're a newbie, the first thing you should focus on is the trend. And currently, the intermediate trend is down. Now you should look to broken areas of previous support to act as resistance. When you have established what looks like an appropriate resistance level, then you should look to sell there into the current trend. Once you have a good handle on the technique of "Selling the rallies in the downtrend" and "Buying the dips in the uptrend", then you should consider looking for counter trend bounces. Just my 2 cents.
Hey, your two cents is straightforward simple and it works for newbies. I like your info, pipeye. Trend is important for every one including experts. Nobody wants to blindly trade away his/her commodities. This is serious business and business is life.
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  • #2,704
  • Aug 10, 2008 10:25pm Aug 10, 2008 10:25pm
Quoting len979
LONG eur/usd 1.5035, stop 1.4820, TP 1.5260 ... small position

and:

LONG eur/usd 1.5005, stop 1.4820, TP 1.5260 ... small position.

I'll average down again at 1.4920, with stop and TP same as above

Just reacting to important levels being hit. If this doesn't work then I'll buy again near next support @ 1.4357
I sold 1/2 the long positions I had in eur/usd @ 1.4971 due to the gap down today (sunday). I decided not to average down. I'll watch the rest closely and might even close them before the stops are hit.

I'll probably stay on the sidelines until these crazy moves die off, or go in small. Either way I would not be shorting eur/usd down here
  • #2,705
  • Aug 10, 2008 10:29pm Aug 10, 2008 10:29pm
Limit Order.... LONG aud/usd 0.8812, stop 0.8746, TP 0.9012 .... small order

Trying to catch a falling knife
  • #2,706
  • Aug 10, 2008 10:30pm Aug 10, 2008 10:30pm
Quoting len979
I sold 1/2 the long positions I had in eur/usd @ 1.4971 due to the gap down today (sunday). I decided not to average down. I'll watch the rest closely and might even close them before the stops are hit.
If you are in for the long swing trade I think you will be profitable. The question is "Do you have the patience?"
History is written by the victors.
  • #2,707
  • Aug 10, 2008 10:41pm Aug 10, 2008 10:41pm
Quoting Money-RX
If you are in for the long swing trade I think you will be profitable. The question is "Do you have the patience?"
I'm patient enough. Do you think eur/usd will go to 1.4350 first before it goes to 1.5280?
  • #2,708
  • Aug 10, 2008 10:55pm Aug 10, 2008 10:55pm
Quoting len979
I sold 1/2 the long positions I had in eur/usd @ 1.4971 due to the gap down today (sunday). I decided not to average down. I'll watch the rest closely and might even close them before the stops are hit.

I'll probably stay on the sidelines until these crazy moves die off, or go in small. Either way I would not be shorting eur/usd down here
Thats the thing here evrything is in either an obvious up trend or down trend but at the same time everything seems either masively overbought or oversold!
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,709
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:00pm Aug 10, 2008 11:00pm
Quoting len979
I'm patient enough. Do you think eur/usd will go to 1.4350 first before it goes to 1.5280?
I would be much more confident with 1.52 instead of 1.43. Everything you read and watch on news seems to favor a weakening dollar at least in the near term. If that pipeline gets bombed I would think that would weaken US with the higher price of oil.
History is written by the victors.
  • #2,710
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:12pm Aug 10, 2008 11:12pm
I dunno Aud looks like 8856 may be where the bulls start taking back some ground. . . . its a pretty strong S&R level historically. I have a buy order in the next time it touches. . .



+ Lemming

p.s with an excruciatingly tight stop
  • #2,711
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:25pm Aug 10, 2008 11:25pm
I don't what the issue is. Weekly 50 ema curling down, Daily 50/100/200 down, hourly EMAs down. down down down. Sell the rallies, sell the rallies. MACD below trigger below water line. I've been short the EUR/USD since the 14th of August. Now let's see what the COT report says about future trend.
  • #2,712
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:27pm Aug 10, 2008 11:27pm
SHORT gbp/jpy 210.94, stop 211.98, TP 209.50 .... small position
  • #2,713
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:53pm Aug 10, 2008 11:53pm
len979,
What about the Quasi-railroad tracks on the hourly at 19:00/20:00 EST?. I'd like to see this pair retreat before short. EMAs show downtrend.
  • #2,714
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:13am Aug 11, 2008 12:13am
Quoting varugger
len979,
What about the Quasi-railroad tracks on the hourly at 19:00/20:00 EST?. I'd like to see this pair retreat before short. EMAs show downtrend.
I went short based on a trendline break (and retest from below) on the daily chart. That's why my stop is so wide.
  • #2,715
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:16am Aug 11, 2008 12:16am
Quoting lemmingboiv2
I dunno Aud looks like 8856 may be where the bulls start taking back some ground. . . . its a pretty strong S&R level historically. I have a buy order in the next time it touches. . .



+ Lemming

p.s with an excruciatingly tight stop
Yes, 1,000 pip drop, and everyone sold all their aussie's last week, and need some now. Maybe a double top at 9850 ?
  • #2,716
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:25am Aug 11, 2008 12:25am
anyone know where Billy has been?
  • #2,717
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:40am Aug 11, 2008 12:40am
Quoting rogerdoger
anyone know where Billy has been?
Billy just got back this second from a trip up to Canada for the weekend. Going to read through some stuff but I have some new ideas which I believe are pretty mandatory at this point; brought to my attention from the one and only Ironman again. Get back to you soon.
  • #2,718
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:41am Aug 11, 2008 12:41am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Billy just got back this second from a trip up to Canada for the weekend. Going to read through some stuff but I have some new ideas which I believe are pretty mandatory at this point; brought to my attention from the one and only Ironman again. Get back to you soon.
nice to have you back!
  • #2,719
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:54am Aug 11, 2008 12:54am
Hello No Brainers Enthusiast,

When a President comes to town people prepare the way, when guest go to a house for dinner people prepare for them, when we get ready to make trades for the week we prepare a gameplan, when the Olympics go to China they "prepare the way." There are probably better examples out there, but here is the point I am trying to make...

This thread really is a privelage to be a part of. Only in this information age with technologically sound charts and platforms....chatrooms forums and threads and everything in between can an aspiring retail trader learn so much in such a short period of time for FREE. Granite nothing is free and this does cost time, but if you enjoy FX as I do then it matters not. This is a top FF thread, with it's root intentions coming from successful FX trading that wants to help others acheive that success. There is alot of muck to weed through on the web especially if you lack even a little discernment and yes even here on FF there is muck. But you know this thread is REALLY helpful and I want more then anything to prepare the way for those with the most knowledge and success. So what can we do to prepare the way.....we could keep to the spirit of the thread and that probably means few indicators, keep it simple, keep our calls as no brainer as possible granite BRV made it clear he prefers people grow their way to success here as well. It means we abide in basic honor and respect and allow those that are successful to speak to us. Understand what is at stake here. This business has MUCH potential to change our lives for the better, and other then the fact that I really enjoy the financial markets anyway is why I am here.....this is a big deal guys....so in the spirit of the No Brainer Thread let us prepare the way!

Best Regards,
Kyle
The way is narrow
  • #2,720
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:42am Aug 11, 2008 1:42am
Quoting Clouds
Yes, 1,000 pip drop, and everyone sold all their aussie's last week, and need some now. Maybe a double top at 9850 ?

I would love to trail to that !!! But am targeting .9378 .....Not too shabby.... So Far Support is holding....trend hasnt reversed......but still holding
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