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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #981
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:21am Aug 8, 2008 11:21am
Quoting lietuve
That was a huge move on eurusd today - 300 pips! and it doesn't show any hesitation to stop here neither there is any support until 1.4900, so it might go down further. Should we pay attention ? asking a little bit too late - I am on my second leg long, but anyways what do you do?
Talking too much...
I was wrong - there was a support here from High of June 26, High of July 11, and Low of July 25 on eur/chf. I know we pay no attention to these, but my old habits die hard. Anyways it was a good quick profitable trade and from now I promise to shut up and trade only.
  • #982
  • Aug 8, 2008 1:10pm Aug 8, 2008 1:10pm
Quoting boeingdriver
So Skyline you still have one open position?

So we should be now waiting for a retracement to close the first position, right?
No I have 2 positions still running , one opened today , the other one opened yesterday

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #983
  • Aug 8, 2008 1:41pm Aug 8, 2008 1:41pm
Below is what I did. Please can anyone explain to me when should I exit (or enter again) based on the strategy explained in this wonderful thread?-

Yesterday it was at 1.6280 (-0.30% from day-before-yesterday's close of 1.6232), So, I enetered long (100K and 150K).
Today it again went down at 1.6233 (-0.29% from yesterdy's close of 1.6280), So, I entered long again (150K and 225K)
  • #984
  • Edited 2:49pm Aug 8, 2008 1:58pm | Edited 2:49pm
Quoting Richard
spieler-

OK, I have incorporated the new entry/ exit rules you have given for coping with big trend. So, ignoring for the moment the rule about taking into account the previous days close, now positions should be managed roughly like this:

1st Entry @ +/- 0.25% Exit on +/- 0.25 pull back. Re-enter +/- 0.50 from entry price
2nd Entry @ +/- 0.50% Exit on +/- 0.25 pull back. Re-enter +/- 0.50 from entry price
3rd Entry @ +/- 0.75% Exit on +/- 0.25 pull back. Re-enter +/- 0.50 from entry price
4th Entry @ +/- 1.25% Exit on +/- 0.25 pull back. Re-enter +/- 0.50 from entry price
If no pull back by now
5th Entry @ +/- 2.25% Exit on 0.50% pull back. Re-enter +/-1.0% from entry price
6th Entry @ +/- 3.75% Exit this entry and 5th Entry at average entry price of both +0.25%
7th Entry @ +/- 5.75% Exit on +/- 1.0% pull back. Re-enter +/- 2.0% from entry price

I hope I have got that right?

Please confirm this is correct or make any corrections needed. Thanks

Richard, this is a great summary of this strategy, and I'm curious to see what Spieler will say about it. One thing I don't really understand is your Re-entry price. I thought that if we have, say, two lots, entered at -25 and -50, we take profit on the first lot when the market moves back to -25 and add another if it moves to -75?
  • #985
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:11pm Aug 8, 2008 10:11pm
I will answer richards questions this week end.

I had to get out yesterday so had somebody trading for me.
i wrotte for him what to do and he followed very sharply.

So he entered a long at -0.25% and get out when back to zero.

NIce quick profit.

I am happy to see that a huge drop in the euro did not generate a mess in our strategy ( i knew that but ..)
300pips down on euros is never happening , there is a non written rule on the 200pips maximum moove on this paire .
So 300pips moove is maximum 2 times per year i think, need to check.

I am cash so far monday will be a new story.

No loss till we started the thread here, only winners , hope it will continue
  • #986
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:30am Aug 9, 2008 12:30am
Quoting pipsalot
Richard, this is a great summary of this strategy, and I'm curious to see what Spieler will say about it. One thing I don't really understand is your Re-entry price. I thought that if we have, say, two lots, entered at -25 and -50, we take profit on the first lot when the market moves back to -25 and add another if it moves to -75?
Pipsalot-

Yes, exit on +/-0.25 pullbacks and enter again after another +/-0.50. The entry/ exit rules for the first few trades made to open a new position are very clear. The problem I am having is getting my head around where to enter/exit when we get caught in a big trend. My schedule is trying to deal more with those extreme entries/ exits.

spieler is a very experienced trader so whilst he is around to give us guidance we won't have a problem should we get caught in a trend. However, that won't always be the case so we need to have as much info about MM as possible. He has always said don't concentrate so much on the entries but more on the management and that is what I have been trying to do.

Quick profits in a ranging market are great but we will get caught in trends (spieler says on average 4/6 times a year) and if we are not clear on how to manage these then say goodbye to your account.

I do think spieler’s system can be traded in a very stress free way but that calmness only comes when you have the confidence of knowing you can handle anything the market throws at you.
  • #987
  • Aug 9, 2008 1:40am Aug 9, 2008 1:40am
spieler-

Thanks, if you have time to answer over the week end that will be great. Sorry to keep asking complicated questions because I know you don’t like long posts but your MM rules really are the key to trading this system well and I so want to learn them the best I can.

Whilst I have your attention could I please also ask another couple of questions.

When we are in a position with many open entries, because de-correlation has gone beyond say 2.00%, our targeted exit point will always no longer be the original 0% line because price may never return there. Lower positions (opened at say between 0.25 and 0.75) will always need to be closed at a loss by offsetting that loss against our externalized profits and profits from positions entered higher up. Therefore would it not be good to open using half lot sizes for the first couple of entries at 0.25 / 0.50, moving to full lot size on first entry over 1%. This would allow for much easier management of any positions caught in extended trend by reducing DD and allowing for a faster closure at overall profit. True, profits on small ranging moves will be less but like you always say, ‘a profit is a profit’, and regular small profits add up quickly. Your opinion on this type of MM system would be much appreciated.

Second question is to do with what you said in your Post 190:

‘at 162.10 i had 4 lots at -1%

Then we get a pull back allowing me to get out of the last lot even, so i had only 3 lots position after that’

Was this exit at BE made using discretion or was it because of a rule in your MM system. If it was due to MM rule please say under which circumstances this should be used.

Sorry again for a long post but I think all students here serious about learning your system and using it always long term stable condition need to address the MM and understand it completely. Thanks as always for your generous time in teaching us all.
  • #988
  • Aug 9, 2008 6:39am Aug 9, 2008 6:39am
Speiler,

What was your 0% line. I suppose it was previous days close (1.6280). If that's the case, it never came back to that level after dropping to -25 to -30%. Can you please post your exact entry and exit point? I am a complete newbie here and trying to understand your trading system. Thank you very much.
  • #989
  • Aug 9, 2008 10:44am Aug 9, 2008 10:44am
SwingMan,

Are you are still working on indicators for this trading strategy? I have not heard from you in a while.

I am using SwingMan's SpielersHedge Divergence_v3 and SpielersHedge DivergenceStdDev_v3 indicators to see what the divergence is for multiple days.

If anyone is using them please let me know how useful they are for you. Which, if either give you more helpful information.

Is there another indicator that anyone is using that is more helpful to trade this system?

Thanks,
pd
  • #990
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:54pm Aug 9, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting Richard
Pipsalot-

Yes, exit on +/-0.25 pullbacks and enter again after another +/-0.50. The entry/ exit rules for the first few trades made to open a new position are very clear. The problem I am having is getting my head around where to enter/exit when we get caught in a big trend. My schedule is trying to deal more with those extreme entries/ exits.

spieler is a very experienced trader so whilst he is around to give us guidance we won't have a problem should we get caught in a trend. However, that won't always be the case so we need to have as much info about MM as possible. He has always said don't concentrate so much on the entries but more on the management and that is what I have been trying to do.

Quick profits in a ranging market are great but we will get caught in trends (spieler says on average 4/6 times a year) and if we are not clear on how to manage these then say goodbye to your account.

I do think spieler’s system can be traded in a very stress free way but that calmness only comes when you have the confidence of knowing you can handle anything the market throws at you.
Richard

I absolutely agree. We should continue learning all we can about managing our positions.
  • #991
  • Aug 9, 2008 2:03pm Aug 9, 2008 2:03pm
hi i'm new to the thread and still reading it. i'd like to see how this is supposed to work via the EA first. does the EA only go on the EURCHF chart or the others too? i searched the thread for my answer before i asked but, haven't found a clear answer and i am still trying to process the method.

Brandon
  • #992
  • Aug 9, 2008 3:22pm Aug 9, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting bshoe24
hi i'm new to the thread and still reading it. i'd like to see how this is supposed to work via the EA first. does the EA only go on the EURCHF chart or the others too? i searched the thread for my answer before i asked but, haven't found a clear answer and i am still trying to process the method.

Brandon
Brandon,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...0&postcount=60
Indicators go on the EURCHF according to the post above...."The divergence indicators (in %) are drawn only for the refference pair! (EURCHF for EURUSD-USDCHF) or (GBPUSD for EURUSD-EURGBP)."

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=63

Take a look at the picture in the above post. You will see it also is the cross pair EURCHF ..... notice it is running on the 1 Hour chart...

Hope this helps...

Bruce
  • #993
  • Aug 9, 2008 4:16pm Aug 9, 2008 4:16pm
thanks for the reply Bruce. I will do some testing. I would have already but, its the weekend.

Brandon
  • #994
  • Aug 9, 2008 5:18pm Aug 9, 2008 5:18pm
i see an error in the experts tab when i apply the EA

"...symbol name for marketinfo function must be a string"

is there setting changes i need to make getting started with the EA?
  • #995
  • Aug 10, 2008 8:15am Aug 10, 2008 8:15am
Richard;
Youre close to the light:
still minors errors

1lot -0.25( or +0.25 of course)
lot 2 -0.25
lot 3 -0.25
lot 4 -0.50 exit 0.25 pull back (pb)
lot 5 -0.50 exit 0.25pb
lot 6 -1 exit 0.50 pb
lot 7 -1 exit 0.50 pb
lot 8 -2 exit 1 pb
lot 9 -2 exit 1 pb
lot10 -3% double lots exit 2pb.


the rule of scaling out 5 and 6 at average +0.25 occurs when you had the
lot 5 closed a first time on a pb and reentered again on the way down.

Important remark : This does not take into account my important rule of conservative approach . You have to take into acount the close of the day or your last entry point to calculate the 0.25 or 0.50 thhe further one from entry point. exemple if long at 162 then market close at 161.90 you have to calculate the -0.25% from 161.90 and not 162.

Then 0.25 , 0.50 etc is not a fixed rule you have to take into account the speed of the trend before entering, Sometime it will make you loss a nice entry but who cares?

I never said huge trends occur 5/6 times per year i said huge trend occur between 0 and 2 times per year ,
Big trends do occur 5/6 times per month but we loved them because they are our big big winners.
  • #996
  • Aug 10, 2008 8:48am Aug 10, 2008 8:48am
as for the friday signal
we closed thursday at 162.70
so entry long was at 162.70*99.75% = 162.29

we went to 162.25 so 162.29 long target was 162.70 we hit 162.71 1 hour after entry
so quick and nice profit
  • #997
  • Aug 10, 2008 9:40am Aug 10, 2008 9:40am
Spieler, thank you very much. I found the following sentence especially important, thank you for explaining it so clearly:

Quoting spieler
You have to take into acount the close of the day or your last entry point to calculate the 0.25 or 0.50 thhe further one from entry point. exemple if long at 162 then market close at 161.90 you have to calculate the -0.25% from 161.90 and not 162.
Regarding re-entries, if I understand correctly, you always re-enter at the spot where you would have entered your next lot: for example, if you had three lots long, the market moves up allowing you to take profit on the last one, and then moves back down, you now have to wait -0.25 plus -0.50 to enter a fourth lot, is that right?

Also, what do you think about this question by Richard:

Quoting Richard
When we are in a position with many open entries, because de-correlation has gone beyond say 2.00%, our targeted exit point will always no longer be the original 0% line because price may never return there. Lower positions (opened at say between 0.25 and 0.75) will always need to be closed at a loss by offsetting that loss against our externalized profits and profits from positions entered higher up. Therefore would it not be good to open using half lot sizes for the first couple of entries at 0.25 / 0.50, moving to full lot size on first entry over 1%. This would allow for much easier management of any positions caught in extended trend by reducing DD and allowing for a faster closure at overall profit. True, profits on small ranging moves will be less but like you always say, ‘a profit is a profit’, and regular small profits add up quickly. Your opinion on this type of MM system would be much appreciated.
And thank you again.
  • #998
  • Aug 10, 2008 9:59am Aug 10, 2008 9:59am
question one only when you are in the -1% entry zone
question 2 i start with low leverage so dont need to take half a lot.
dont forget that the trend you showed us almost never occured. So you need to capitalise before and make profits on normal lot sotherwise when the trend will come if any you will have low profit in your account to handle it.
  • #999
  • Aug 10, 2008 4:29pm Aug 10, 2008 4:29pm
Hi Spieler et all,

I am still learning and was looking at this trade and went through the charts looking at when we might have entered and exited - is this approach as highlighted in the charts to exit/entry correct?

Is this profit minus spreads that might have been realised?

Many thanks for all you help.

Red


Quoting spieler
as for the friday signal
we closed thursday at 162.70
so entry long was at 162.70*99.75% = 162.29

we went to 162.25 so 162.29 long target was 162.70 we hit 162.71 1 hour after entry
so quick and nice profit
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uc long.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,000
  • Aug 10, 2008 7:07pm Aug 10, 2008 7:07pm
Skyline,may i know this system only for intra day only.why i use the indicator ,when next day the divergence start from zero again?
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