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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #12,361
  • Aug 9, 2008 3:20am Aug 9, 2008 3:20am
Quoting mbqb11
I just read this and it made my week seriously.




LOL would you not have a few beers after this could be seen from your house

My apologies for putting non forex in this thread, but usually it is James who gets to post these(We don't get tornadoes where I am from lol- yes the ones in texas are about 4000 times the size but still ), but we still got some mean looking golf ball hail
WOW! Mike that really is a cool pic! hope you're fine and enjoying the stiff beer!
I believe . . .
  • #12,362
  • Aug 9, 2008 3:24am Aug 9, 2008 3:24am
Quoting ghous
i don't see a pin bar there atall, the tail down south is just as long as the tail to the north, plus a good sized bearish body, it's far from a valid pin bar...
But I was refering to an inside bar my freind not a pin..but thanks either way
  • #12,363
  • Aug 9, 2008 5:19am Aug 9, 2008 5:19am
Quoting HipsterPipster
Nice weekly pin, swing high with divergence and ppz. Price needs to break the 2.1200 area.
I've got to ask since I am wondering:
Why did you connect the highs with a TL if you don't know for sure yet it's an established swing high? So far it's lacking at least 1-2 neighboring bars is what I mean. Is it just a visual aid for you or a marker or?

I'm not sure about the PB. It looks really nice shape wise, but agree on s/r coming soon below.
Not exactly rock hard areas established below, but depending on bear enthusiasm plenty of places to use as an excuse
Dunno. Not familiar at all with this pair.
Looks like it has potential, but I feel unqualified and my gut is saying "no idea". All these oddball crosses never gave me any joy I must admit.

That aside - to me this is another indicator for my suspicion that the EUR might suddenly go from strongest to weakest link
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12,364
  • Aug 9, 2008 5:28am Aug 9, 2008 5:28am
Quoting Shermenator
Hey guys let me know if this is a valid inside bar on eurusd...this is my 4 hour chart
Any bar needs to be closed first to be "examined". If it did close like on the picture, highs and lows inside the prior bar, it's an IB.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12,365
  • Aug 9, 2008 6:01am Aug 9, 2008 6:01am
can anyone please post a link to the POST where exits are explained

thanks guys for the previous replies
  • #12,366
  • Aug 9, 2008 8:35am Aug 9, 2008 8:35am
Hi all,

I spy 3 daily pinbars on EURAUD, NZDCHF, AUDCHF.
Limit orders set and waiting to go!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdchf.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audchf.gif Size: 21 KB
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #12,367
  • Aug 9, 2008 10:04am Aug 9, 2008 10:04am
Hi all,

I caught a few pinbars on H4 this week following Jim's methods. Although I have to admit that I took my profit way way too early. As you can guess, I'm new at using this methods. I'm so used to taking a quick 10-15 pips on news trading. So I was quite happy when I caught 35 pips quick rebound on aud/jpy 4H pinbar the other day. There was also a bearish engulfing H4 on gbp/usd that could've netted more than a hundred pips but I settled for 5 pips
I guess I need to change my mentality by not watching minutes chart...It was hard when I saw I could've made a quick 20 pips, but the price retraced to my entry....I pulled the triggered way too early when over the next 4-8 hours I could've pulled in more than 100 pips. Oh well, lessons learned...

One thing I learned this week and starting to build my confidence are the occurence of price action signal at PPZ confluence. There were a total of 4 trades available and 3 were big winners. I just need to learn to take my trades and HOLD. This "lessons" that you guys are teaching here really works. So thank you all, and thank you Jim.

I have one questions regarding taking pinbar with divergence in H4 though. I notice that sometimes Jim takes pinbar trades based on MACD divergence in daily timeframe. Does that method work in shorter time frame, such as H4? If it does, what's the variable that you use? 12,26,9?
  • #12,368
  • Aug 9, 2008 10:52am Aug 9, 2008 10:52am
Quoting SimonK
Hi all,

I spy 3 daily pinbars on EURAUD, NZDCHF, AUDCHF.
Limit orders set and waiting to go!
Hi, SimonK. Im wondering, where will You put your Sell limit order in EUR/AUD?
Look in my attachment, there's a 61.8 fib level above the price. Will the retracement get above it, before making a bearish move?

So, what do you think, make Sell stop order or better to wait the retracement?
Attached Image
  • #12,369
  • Edited 12:28pm Aug 9, 2008 12:04pm | Edited 12:28pm
Quoting y.caesar
Hi all,

I caught a few pinbars on H4 this week following Jim's methods. Although I have to admit that I took my profit way way too early. As you can guess, I'm new at using this methods. I'm so used to taking a quick 10-15 pips on news trading. So I was quite happy when I caught 35 pips quick rebound on aud/jpy 4H pinbar the other day. There was also a bearish engulfing H4 on gbp/usd that could've netted more than a hundred pips but I settled for 5 pips
I guess I need to change my mentality by not watching minutes chart...It was hard when I saw I could've made a quick 20 pips, but the price retraced to my entry....I pulled the triggered way too early when over the next 4-8 hours I could've pulled in more than 100 pips. Oh well, lessons learned...

One thing I learned this week and starting to build my confidence are the occurence of price action signal at PPZ confluence. There were a total of 4 trades available and 3 were big winners. I just need to learn to take my trades and HOLD. This "lessons" that you guys are teaching here really works. So thank you all, and thank you Jim.

I have one questions regarding taking pinbar with divergence in H4 though. I notice that sometimes Jim takes pinbar trades based on MACD divergence in daily timeframe. Does that method work in shorter time frame, such as H4? If it does, what's the variable that you use? 12,26,9?
Hi y.caesar,
it can take some time for you to get settled in a higher tf mode specially when you're coming from a tf as low as the 1 minute, one thing you need to understand is that you need to change your entire mindset and this is easier said than done, i mean it can be extremely difficult to get your emotions right and understand when to enter and when to exit, on the 4H 30 pips against you is no special worry, on the 1 min it can be an account killer for you, so i bet it's gonna be difficult but it sure is managble if you stay determined and take as much of a lesson as possible from traders around here (many of whom are trading 4H and above) and take special note of what techniques they use to enter and exit. you may ofcaorse devise some of your own set of techniques or rules to determine your entries and exits.

if i am on the right track i can bet you'll also feel a tinge of boredom around as you are quite used to taking very short trades, but with time you'll understand that the higher tfs and those long term trades are a great spice in themselves, you'll start enjoying the great feeling of bagging some real pips around and cathcing some real moves along with the big guys on the higher tfs.

anyways it's great to see that you're already anticpating correct moves and have got down to the core of this system i.e looking for trades with confluence/s you sure will go a long way if you contiue like this you just need a bit of grooming around your money managment areas and your trading mindset.

abt your second qs...i am also a great fan of divergences and got into it when the master (i mean Jim) emphasized the signicance it carries, i therefoe started using it and so far it's been great but again as i stay on the higher tfs things become a lot easy and the divergences hold true (in line with techincal analysis) that is on the daily charts although i have found some success with this tool down in the 4H too anything under that is just not my style of trading and obviosuly the divergences too can be weak as we go down breaking the candle periods. So i have 2 advices for you:

1) You need to try and stay atleast on the 4H tf to ensure success with this great tool, besides it's been consistently mentioned that Jim's method and PA indications work best on higher tfs.

2) never trade divergences alone! although divergences can be a great tool you can have in your trading kit it is important to understand that it tells you where pirce is most probably going in the NEAR FUTURE that is there is no guarantee that the pirce is falling/sky rocketing the very next min/hour/day.

let me give you an example:

[OPEN THE ATTACTHED CHART IN A SEPERATE WINDOW]


this is the AUD/NZD daily chart.

the divergence is confirmed as soon as the price makes a higher high and the macd shows a lower high, so let's look at 2 diif traders and how they interpret the situation...

trader 1):
now that's a good sign for bearish move, but uh oh! no PA to confirm it...ahh! forget it! as if nobody ever had any success without trading with PA indications this still is great divergence and i know how good it can be, it gave me +200 pips on the previous trade, GREAT! let's ride another joy ride..now this stupid fellow (as you should have realized by now) wants to depend only on the divergence as soon as it is confirmed, he takes the trade after the second set of green circles drawn on the chart and i think i don't even need to mention the end, now if only he has the guts to see all those -ve pips for weeks to come.

trader 2):
here is another trader who seems more mature from his approach... AH! breaish divergence, that seems a nice way to deal with the steep rising wedge! let's wait for a nice PA indication to confirm a down move, weeks pass on and the trades holds his nerves and waits and waits for a nice setup as he sees price make regular higher highs while the macd disagrees. but finally the time comes, abt 4 weeks into waiting he finds what he is lookng for... AHH! tails telling the way! that's some nice sign of the bears finally getting in, the time is right and i can take it... the trade is taken after PA indications given by those tails...again the end is quite visible...

trader2 has had a great trade while trader1 has lost more than half his nails hoping that the silly price would do as he wished,

the fact is that price works like a snail, leaving behind trails of it's direction in the form of yucky goo! if only there was an art to turm this thing into cash...there is one...think abt it...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd.GIF Size: 13 KB
I believe . . .
  • #12,370
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:17pm Aug 9, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting stopman
Hi, SimonK. Im wondering, where will You put your Sell limit order in EUR/AUD?
Look in my attachment, there's a 61.8 fib level above the price. Will the retracement get above it, before making a bearish move?

So, what do you think, make Sell stop order or better to wait the retracement?
in my opinion your chart actually confirms some nice conflunece around this PA setup i don't see any major reason to hesitate except the fact that it's weekend and i generally don't take trades right off monday start...
I believe . . .
  • #12,371
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:37pm Aug 9, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I've got to ask since I am wondering:
Why did you connect the highs with a TL if you don't know for sure yet it's an established swing high? So far it's lacking at least 1-2 neighboring bars is what I mean. Is it just a visual aid for you or a marker or?

I'm not sure about the PB. It looks really nice shape wise, but agree on s/r coming soon below.
Not exactly rock hard areas established below, but depending on bear enthusiasm plenty of places to use as an excuse
Dunno. Not familiar at all with this pair.
Looks like it has potential, but I feel unqualified and my gut is saying "no idea". All these oddball crosses never gave me any joy I must admit.

That aside - to me this is another indicator for my suspicion that the EUR might suddenly go from strongest to weakest link
Hey SL,
Here are a couple of charts that better explain the situation. Maybe I shouldn’t call it a "swing high" but the top of the pin is right at the shoulders and the close is at near to the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern of 2000-2002. I agree it is difficult to establish cut and dry ppz areas and my solution for this is to use the line chart for pairs like this. I have no hard evidence that the close is respected more, but it at least gives me something to work with. I also tend to use close price for ppz when establishing historically respected price levels, especially going back this far. It actually gives me a consistent "close" line ppz right at the pin close. I drew the line connecting the high of 2006 and this pin only to illustrate the divergence with the MACD for the corresponding time. I invite the thread to comment on this approach as I believe we can all learn from it. And, of course, the pin may never be validated. Dion
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd weekly2.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd weekly3.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #12,372
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:52pm Aug 9, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting stopman
Hi, SimonK. Im wondering, where will You put your Sell limit order in EUR/AUD?
Look in my attachment, there's a 61.8 fib level above the price. Will the retracement get above it, before making a bearish move?

So, what do you think, make Sell stop order or better to wait the retracement?
Hi Stopman, on the weekly chart, price spiked through the 61.8, but closed below, so I'm not too bothered about that fib level.
I'm more concerned about the low on the 4th August at 1.6833, so my limit order is just below that.

Quoting ghous
in my opinion your chart actually confirms some nice conflunece around this PA setup i don't see any major reason to hesitate except the fact that it's weekend and i generally don't take trades right off monday start...
Hi Ghous, yes setting limit orders on the weekend is always a bit risky. I wouldnt be placing any cad or oil trades with the Russians threatening to bomb the Georgian oil pipeline that feeds the west, but I think the pairs I have mentioned are ok as they are not oil related.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #12,373
  • Aug 9, 2008 1:35pm Aug 9, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting SimonK
Hi Stopman, on the weekly chart, price spiked through the 61.8, but closed below, so I'm not too bothered about that fib level.
I'm more concerned about the low on the 4th August at 1.6833, so my limit order is just below that.



Hi Ghous, yes setting limit orders on the weekend is always a bit risky. I wouldnt be placing any cad or oil trades with the Russians threatening to bomb the Georgian oil pipeline that feeds the west, but I think the pairs I have mentioned are ok as they are not oil related.
Thank, You for Your response.
  • #12,374
  • Aug 9, 2008 1:51pm Aug 9, 2008 1:51pm
Quoting ghous
Hi y.caesar,
it can take some time for you to get settled in a higher tf mode specially when you're coming from a tf as low as the 1 minute, one thing you need to understand is that you need to change your entire mindset and this is easier said than done, i mean it can be extremely difficult to get your emotions right and understand when to enter and when to exit, on the 4H 30 pips against you is no special worry, on the 1 min it can be an account killer for you, so i bet it's gonna be difficult but it sure is managble if you stay determined and take as much of a lesson as possible from traders around here (many of whom are trading 4H and above) and take special note of what techniques they use to enter and exit. you may ofcaorse devise some of your own set of techniques or rules to determine your entries and exits.

if i am on the right track i can bet you'll also feel a tinge of boredom around as you are quite used to taking very short trades, but with time you'll understand that the higher tfs and those long term trades are a great spice in themselves, you'll start enjoying the great feeling of bagging some real pips around and cathcing some real moves along with the big guys on the higher tfs.

anyways it's great to see that you're already anticpating correct moves and have got down to the core of this system i.e looking for trades with confluence/s you sure will go a long way if you contiue like this you just need a bit of grooming around your money managment areas and your trading mindset.

Thank you Ghous for your time answering my post. You are right on what you said on your post. It does take a different mentality in trading in higher time frame using Jim's methods. I'm so much used to scalping in 5min, even 1min in trading the news for only up to 1.5hr at a time. Boredom really does its toll after more than 4 hrs straight in front of the computer. Thank God for those trades I was able to take fading the round numbers Those trades were taken also by using scalping techniques good for only up to 20pips. I guess I need to learn to manage my time and my trades in trading the H4 timeframe to get that killer trade. Switch on and off my mentality between scalping trading the news and try to get that killer trade by trading the higher TF is easier said than done.

I will also take your advise by using MACD divergence in daily only. I'll try to put up some charts next week when a potential trade emerges.

Cheers,
  • #12,375
  • Edited Aug 10, 2008 1:45am Aug 9, 2008 2:25pm | Edited Aug 10, 2008 1:45am
Quoting y.caesar
Thank you Ghous for your time answering my post. You are right on what you said on your post. It does take a different mentality in trading in higher time frame using Jim's methods. I'm so much used to scalping in 5min, even 1min in trading the news for only up to 1.5hr at a time. Boredom really does its toll after more than 4 hrs straight in front of the computer. Thank God for those trades I was able to take fading the round numbers Those trades were taken also by using scalping techniques good for only up to 20pips. I guess I need to learn to manage my time and my trades in trading the H4 timeframe to get that killer trade. Switch on and off my mentality between scalping trading the news and try to get that killer trade by trading the higher TF is easier said than done.

I will also take your advise by using MACD divergence in daily only. I'll try to put up some charts next week when a potential trade emerges.

Cheers,
there is no need to sit in front of the pc for hours if you're trading the higher tfs as a general rule you should be around the chart at cadnle close to judge anything, on the 4H this means a look every 4h is enough, on the daily it might mean you look at your chart once every 24 hours to enter/exit/manage a trade...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #12,376
  • Aug 10, 2008 2:05am Aug 10, 2008 2:05am
here is a nice setup on the Eur/Nzd...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd.gif Size: 14 KB
I believe . . .
  • #12,377
  • Aug 10, 2008 6:58am Aug 10, 2008 6:58am
Quoting jarroo
I'll ditto that clueless. A bundy classic.
Thanks guys. I keep heading out on these rants . Hopefully I'm not leading too many people down a different path than where Jim intends to go.

I know I have some different strategies sometimes.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,378
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:16am Aug 10, 2008 11:16am
Quoting HipsterPipster
Hey SL,
I drew the line connecting the high of 2006 and this pin only to illustrate the divergence with the MACD for the corresponding time. Dion
Ah alright, this is what I was wondering about => for visualization.
BTW, to me that nosedive+squeeze looks a lot like what GBPAUD is just beginning to do

You might have a treasure map layout there for the GBPAUD future?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12,379
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:37am Aug 10, 2008 11:37am
Quoting ghous
here is a nice setup on the Eur/Nzd...
Ghous, the daily bar is a bearish outside bar, BEOB, that closes for a weekly pin.
  • #12,380
  • Aug 10, 2008 1:08pm Aug 10, 2008 1:08pm
guys what do u think after getting the signal on the daily placing the enteries based on the 4hr chart

FOR THE SAKE OF MINIMIZING THE RISK

coz some wiseman once said novice traders always try to maximize their profits
while professional traders always try to minimize their loss


okay it wasnt some wizeman it was JAROO
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