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  • #2,661
  • Aug 8, 2008 2:57pm Aug 8, 2008 2:57pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have to conclude that this method is robust since it is working at the 1 tick level. Nice job, BRV.
  • #2,662
  • Aug 8, 2008 3:00pm Aug 8, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting len979
I'm Signing off for the week. I'll be back on Sunday night.

Wish you all a fun weekend
I am taking off as well I'll have an update in my journal early sunday before the market opens, perhaps. Until then I'm out. Have a nice weekend all and enjoy the Olympics!
  • #2,663
  • Aug 8, 2008 3:02pm Aug 8, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting len979
LONG eur/usd 1.5035, stop 1.4820, TP 1.5260 ... small position

and:

LONG eur/usd 1.5005, stop 1.4820, TP 1.5260 ... small position.

I'll average down again at 1.4920, with stop and TP same as above

Just reacting to important levels being hit. If this doesn't work then I'll buy again near next support @ 1.4357
I know EU is way oversold, but this downtrend is so strong, I'd be very careful with longs. Why do you insist on going against this trend? If the trend is your friend, a strong trend is my best buddy.

Do you really think is going to gain > 200 pips now? (I know one thing for sure: anything can happen!) It sure can, but I venture to guess it is more likely to lose these 200 pips first (i.e. go to around 1.48) than gain them. I think we oughta look for resistance levels above us, and target shorts, rather than trying to guess bottoms.

Of course, nothing prevents going both ways; there's pips to be made on the way up, too. I just think they're somewhat more dangerous...

Enjoy your weekend!
  • #2,664
  • Aug 8, 2008 3:24pm Aug 8, 2008 3:24pm
Hello to you all.
I ve been reading through this thread for a couple of days and will continue to do so. As someone who is struggling to get to grips with this FX Beast I find that there is a lot of learning and experience in here and it looks like I'll be among good company for the (bumpy) ride.
I'll be needing a lot of education so go easy on me.
Regards,
Pete

PS. Am I the only one on this planet who went short on E/U today and got hammered. Impossible you might think! Well, I am capable of making a pigs ear out of a silk purse! Making lead out of gold and water out of wine.
e.g
e/u short @ 15010.0 Stopped out 15050.0.......bet you cant beat that
  • #2,665
  • Aug 8, 2008 3:40pm Aug 8, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting Petea1uk
Hello to you all.
I ve been reading through this thread for a couple of days and will continue to do so. As someone who is struggling to get to grips with this FX Beast I find that there is a lot of learning and experience in here and it looks like I'll be among good company for the (bumpy) ride.
I'll be needing a lot of education so go easy on me.
Regards,
Pete

PS. Am I the only one on this planet who went short on E/U today and got hammered. Impossible you might think! Well, I am capable of making a pigs ear out of a silk purse! Making lead out of gold and water out of wine.
e.g
e/u short @ 15010.0 Stopped out 15050.0.......bet you cant beat that
Welcome Pete I'm a newbie myself. Had a lot of really hard lessons too, bro. Don't beat yourself up --enjoy the madness next week
  • #2,666
  • Edited 4:23pm Aug 8, 2008 3:55pm | Edited 4:23pm
Quoting Verto
I think you are in a pretty good position len with your longs.

But wow, this is the biggest daily candle in e/u history I think... or close to it anyway.
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204 pips is the largest in the last 5000 days.

As far as the EURUSD, the price just regressed to the mean on the monthly chart.
  • #2,667
  • Aug 8, 2008 4:26pm Aug 8, 2008 4:26pm
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Compare and contrast the GBPUSD to the EURUSD monthly. Nothing seems to strange now, does it?
  • #2,668
  • Aug 8, 2008 4:28pm Aug 8, 2008 4:28pm
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Finally, the USDJPY is just regressed to the mean.

Remember, the "big boys" look at the weekly and monthly charts. To them, a daily chart is "just noise".
  • #2,669
  • Aug 8, 2008 4:34pm Aug 8, 2008 4:34pm
Quoting CodeMuncher
Attachment

204 pips is the largest in the last 5000 days.

As far as the EURUSD, the price just regressed to the mean on the monthly chart.
I also want to point out to the people who are checking out all of codemuncher's monthly charts that this month just started... hehe it should prove to be interesting, to say the least.

See I never really left.
  • #2,670
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:00pm Aug 8, 2008 5:00pm
Quoting Verto
I also want to point out to the people who are checking out all of codemuncher's monthly charts that this month just started... hehe it should prove to be interesting, to say the least.

See I never really left.
Nothing to check out really. Just used the Linear Regression indicator and I changed the LENGTH to 89.
  • #2,671
  • Aug 8, 2008 7:59pm Aug 8, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting CodeMuncher
Attachment


I wasn't trying to be rude. It's just that so many people do not understand indicators for what they really are - another way of interpreting price/volume/time data.

A 1 tick chart is the purest chart. Anything else becomes interpretation.

The H1 chart above is an interpretation of the tick data appearing in the bottom window. The high and low of the H1 candle changes during that hour, right? But that doesn't mean the candle chart is of no use.
Hi Code muncher,

Where are you getting your tick data from? I didn't think you could get tick data on metatrader.
  • #2,672
  • Aug 8, 2008 8:03pm Aug 8, 2008 8:03pm
do you guys think next week the market will get settled and move with the s/r levels again?

the last time the e/u dropped a bunch, it took ~2 weeks for things to get back to normal
  • #2,673
  • Aug 8, 2008 8:23pm Aug 8, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Code muncher,

Where are you getting your tick data from? I didn't think you could get tick data on metatrader.
It's an indicator called Tick-by-Tick. It streams by so if you change anything, the data starts over. Not really a problem just something to be aware of.
  • #2,674
  • Aug 8, 2008 8:25pm Aug 8, 2008 8:25pm
Quoting rogerdoger
do you guys think next week the market will get settled and move with the s/r levels again?

the last time the e/u dropped a bunch, it took ~2 weeks for things to get back to normal
According the monthly charts things are back to "normal"
  • #2,675
  • Aug 8, 2008 8:47pm Aug 8, 2008 8:47pm
Quoting CodeMuncher
According the monthly charts things are back to "normal"
maybe my s/r levels will finally hold then
  • #2,676
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:41pm Aug 8, 2008 10:41pm
I'm seeing prices move through SR levels with the briefest of pauses

A little off topic i know but consider this:
Yesterday a lot of people who can afford to arrived in Beijing - for ten days of entertainment at the games. How many big players who normally shuffle money around the globe are taking 2 wks holiday right now. I don't know but i suspect that volume is going to be a little lighter than normal in all financial markets for a while and this leaves them wide open to volatile moves. Everyones been short the USD for a long time and now as positions get closed for annual summer holidays there's no one there to say "that looks oversold, lets buy some"

thin markets are also a cheap time for someone to be doing some intervention in OIL and the strong USD policy.

steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #2,677
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:20pm Aug 8, 2008 11:20pm
I know this thread focuses on SR levels and that most price movements are up and down within a range and most breakouts fail but I'd like to discuss where the tipping point is where you can say this move is so strong it's best now to forget the short term SR levels and trade with the breakout only using long term SR levels.

I think if a price moves to a level it hasn't been to in the last 8 weeks we should consider trading with the breakout - but maybe waiting to enter on a pullback.

Also if the price moves moves more than 100 pips in less than 2 hrs don't expect the next closest SR to hold for too long. a very small bounce like <15 pips before continuing through would also confirm the current trend

These figures are only put here for discusion and would probably change with different pairs at different times.

One mistake i make trading is to forget about viewing the longer time frames daily weekly and monthly charts. I'm thinking an indicator that showed how many days its been since last seeing todays high or low would be very useful.

What number of days would you start trading the break at?

steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #2,678
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:22pm Aug 8, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting SABTrader
I know this thread focuses on SR levels and that most price movements are up and down within a range and most breakouts fail but I'd like to discuss where the tipping point is where you can say this move is so strong it's best now to forget the short term SR levels and trade with the breakout only using long term SR levels.

I think if a price moves to a level it hasn't been to in the last 8 weeks we should consider trading with the breakout - but maybe waiting to enter on a pullback.

Also if the price moves moves more than 100 pips in less than 2 hrs don't expect the next closest SR to hold for too long. a very small bounce like <15 pips before continuing through would also confirm the current trend

These figures are only put here for discusion and would probably change with different pairs at different times.

One mistake i make trading is to forget about viewing the longer time frames daily weekly and monthly charts. I'm thinking an indicator that showed how many days its been since last seeing todays high or low would be very useful.

What number of days would you start trading the break at?

steve
What do you mean by seeing?
  • #2,679
  • Aug 9, 2008 1:18am Aug 9, 2008 1:18am
Quoting CodeMuncher
Attachment

I have to conclude that this method is robust since it is working at the 1 tick level. Nice job, BRV.
Hey codemuncher, what are you really upto here. None of your posts in any of the threads have anything to do with the actual topic or theme of the thread. Then you come up with the amazing '3' indicator that cleverly positions itself when a top or bottom is formed, and if a new top or bottom is formed, it changes its position and sneaks over there as if nobody is looking. Many here already know who you are. You are not fooling anybody. So please stick to the theme of the thread.
  • #2,680
  • Aug 9, 2008 3:23am Aug 9, 2008 3:23am
I'm thinking an indicator that showed how many days its been since last seeing todays high or low would be very useful.

Friday the EU low was 1.4997. The last time we saw that price on the EU spot was on 27th Feb 2008 approx 120 trading days ago. Anyone that was trading a breakout system using anywhere from 40 to 120 days would of gone short on Friday if not short already. Basically a lot of people went short on Friday for this reason when price crossed 1.5285. And of course a lot of stops got hit.

As well as price thresholds being hit we had a close below that threshold which many won't respond to until Monday morning. So I'm expecting 1.50 to break on Monday. Some of them will stop trading without a stop after this.

Friday the UY high was 110.36 which was last seen on 10th Jan 2008 - 7 months ago approx 7x22 = 154 trading days ago. What is really significant here is that price didn't explode on Friday like it did with the EU mainly because 2 days prior there was a 150 day breakout when price crossed up through 109.00
Another possible reason for the muted move is that not as many Japanese are choosing to go to China for the olympics when they could be trading forex.

steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
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