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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #481
  • Feb 12, 2007 5:12pm Feb 12, 2007 5:12pm
It is getting very interested on the Gbp. Last three candles have tails pointing up and on them alone is forming a head and shoulder formation. More reason to wait.

EurUsd starts to show nice round bottom prospect. Will see at next candle close.
  • #482
  • Feb 12, 2007 5:15pm Feb 12, 2007 5:15pm
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,

Referring to the chart you attached to this posting on 'counter trend trades:
It is a great chart!
1. If price crosses below the 89 SMA, we are in down trend MOOD.
2. In this down trend, take all short signals given by MACD in nomal way with appropriate s/l and tp using trend lines, MAs and price barriers.
3. If you get a signal in MACD to go long while you are in this down trend situation, make sure your long trade is going to be upto 21EMA area ONLY and, based on that, calculate R:R ratio.
4. If R;R ratio is one or better, take it. Otherwise skip the trade.
5. Same rules apply to up trend. (Of course, in reverse orderhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif).
Please comment.
Thanks.

That is exactly
  • #483
  • Edited 8:05pm Feb 12, 2007 6:46pm | Edited 8:05pm
Now that sums it up. Thank you very much both of you for putting that so "eloquently" Sometimes it takes certain wording or grouping for me to take it all in.

Thanks!

Quoting Phillip Nel
That is exactly
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,

Referring to the chart you attached to this posting on 'counter trend trades:
It is a great chart!
1. If price crosses below the 89 SMA, we are in down trend.
2. In this down trend, take all short signals given by MACD in nomal way with appropriate s/l and tp using trend lines, MAs and price barriers.
3. If you get a signal in MACD to go long while you are in this down trend situation, make sure your long trade is going to be upto 21EMA area ONLY and, based on that, calculate R:R ratio.
4. If R;R ratio is one or better, take it. Otherwise skip the trade.
5. Same rules apply to up trend. (Of course, in reverse orderhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif).
Please comment.
Thanks.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #484
  • Feb 12, 2007 6:50pm Feb 12, 2007 6:50pm
I am really curious when you would pull the trigger for the USD/GDP pair. WHen does a head and shoulders pattern confirm bullish? and when negative?

Thanks.
  • #485
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:14pm Feb 12, 2007 8:14pm
now is cable second chance to breakout.

EDIT: well done, dear! there must be some buy orders above 1.9490.
  • #486
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:28pm Feb 12, 2007 8:28pm
I'm still very new to this method, but it looks as though the EUR/USD is forming a rounded bottom, which would signal a move to the upside. Does anyone agree or am I not reading the chart right?
  • #487
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:46pm Feb 12, 2007 8:46pm
I wana ask about something
if the eur/gbp is going short
is that mean that eur/usd will go short and gbp/usd will go long
or there isn't relative between the move of eur/gbp down and the other tow bairs
?????????????????????????????????????
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #488
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:09pm Feb 12, 2007 10:09pm
Quoting mandoaddam
I wana ask about something
if the eur/gbp is going short
is that mean that eur/usd will go short and gbp/usd will go long
or there isn't relative between the move of eur/gbp down and the other tow bairs
?????????????????????????????????????


They sometimes move together but lately not.
  • #489
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:21pm Feb 12, 2007 10:21pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
That is exactly
Professor Phillip, Thank you for all your valuable teaching and could you explain hows you position the trend line on your graphs. Thanks
O'Zeeke
  • #490
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:22pm Feb 12, 2007 10:22pm
Quoting turk87
I am really curious when you would pull the trigger for the USD/GDP pair. WHen does a head and shoulders pattern confirm bullish? and when negative?

Thanks.
GbpUsd
If the 365EMA was 35+ pips away I would have went long 2 candles ago. It is only the 365EMA and 1.9500 pricelevel that prevents me. It might turn out a true sHs (does not look that well) but I am to aware of the fact that we are going south with the trend.
I like the last candle on Gbp and must force myself not to go long for a couple of pips.

EurUsd
89SMA to close. Wait for a touch of the 89SMA and a turnaround for a trend continuation to go short. Target at trendline 1.2940. Trade balans news might give direction and a break below the trendline is on if it is good news for the Usd


At the moment the MA's are to close to one another so it makes it difficult. There is no smooth movement.
  • #491
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:29pm Feb 12, 2007 10:29pm
Wouldnt you consider going long, EUR/USD??
There seems to be a smooth bottom.
Attached Image
  • #492
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:55pm Feb 12, 2007 10:55pm
Quoting turk87
Wouldnt you consider going long, EUR/USD??
There seems to be a smooth bottom.

May be NOT BEFORE the price crosses upwards the 89 SMA and closes above 89SMA. Remember, price crossing below the 89SMA puts the market in to down trend mood. (So said Phillip. Go a couple postings back and you will see all the important things he has said about 89SMA and 21 EMA).
Good trading.
-Chandra
  • #493
  • Feb 12, 2007 11:36pm Feb 12, 2007 11:36pm
Don't put too much emphasis on the moving averages. Just look at the chart, its trending up and near the lows of the trend, with the round MACD forming. Also its in a choppy pattern, so moving averages are pretty much useless in this case.

Just my opinion.
  • #494
  • Feb 13, 2007 12:47am Feb 13, 2007 12:47am
Thanks for getting back with me Tamkras! Looks like the GBP made it up to test the 9500 area. Now I'll be looking for a short signal to continue the downtrend.

EUR/USD, as Phillip has mentioned, looks ready to do something. Not sure what yet...will have to wait and see on this pair too! But with MACD heading to the zero line on both pairs, Perhaps it will touch and head back down giving a Downtrend continuation signal!

Time will tell!!!

Quoting tamkras
my take on euro and cable at this moment:

1). euro bounced off weekly support line and made a nice 1 hr pin. we need MACD pattern to confirm the bulls power. If solely played on 1 hr pin, my target would be around @1.2983. But I can not initiate long position as there is no MACD signal yet.

2). cable looks promising for the long with MACD unfolding better. The last swing low of the bears has failed to produce similar or longer 4-hr bear candle. Price bounced off swing high of the previous W pattern dated January 8th.

General remark: both pairs, in my view, are forming an ascending triangle on 5-min chart. This is not always a bullish structure. If busted, we can see further downturn. Sorry, as I do not sit at my trading computer, I can not provide some charts. But this is what I see. I am looking at the MACD unfolding for cable and breakout from the triangle.
  • #495
  • Feb 13, 2007 1:04am Feb 13, 2007 1:04am
Long EUR.USD @ 1.2968
  • #496
  • Feb 13, 2007 1:18am Feb 13, 2007 1:18am
Quoting turk87
Long EUR.USD @ 1.2968
good move turk87 ...

btw I read a lot of times in the posts the R:R ratio ... sorry all, I tried to search on google too, but I didn't find anything about it, may someone can explain me what the R:R ratio is ?

thanks in advance !!!
  • #497
  • Feb 13, 2007 1:28am Feb 13, 2007 1:28am


It crossed the 89, there you go, jump on board if you wish.
  • #498
  • Feb 13, 2007 1:28am Feb 13, 2007 1:28am
Quoting siddharta73
good move turk87 ...

btw I read a lot of times in the posts the R:R ratio ... sorry all, I tried to search on google too, but I didn't find anything about it, may someone can explain me what the R:R ratio is ?

thanks in advance !!!
It's Risk:Reward ratio, that is at the end of the trader, if it would go either way, how much would you gain or loose. If the ratio is favourable in gain part, then the risk should be less.
  • #499
  • Edited 5:38am Feb 13, 2007 5:09am | Edited 5:38am
I made some grea pips (48 and 36 a total of 129 if you count the multiple lot trading taechnique like phillip uses)) today on both before the big pullback. It may not have been the ideal setup, but I learned from it again, and will be able to see things develep better in the future. Thanks again for all you advice and teachings!

What in the world is the EUr/usd going to do now?!?!?!? Still looks like a big break out has to happen soon? Maybe break the 200 EMA and continue up? since now over the 89? Spinner candle is currently right under the 200
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #500
  • Edited 5:53am Feb 13, 2007 5:34am | Edited 5:53am
I went long yesterday with cable but my TP was 1 pip apart from the market turnaround point. Since I had a tight stop I lost only 23 pips. I missed this cable move. It bounced off 21SMA in a spectacular manner! Where was I?!
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