Dislikedi am definitely watching it. it's friday so we may have some profit taking after 12pm estIgnored
- #2,642
- Edited 9:26am Aug 8, 2008 9:13am | Edited 9:26am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2008 | 245 Posts
From page 17 in the PDF
This is the reason I have been discussing ticks. The "3" tells me this COULD BE a bottom reversal level. The ticks show me the price action. Looking at the support resistance gauge tells me if any of those prices have been H1 highs or lows over the last 240 H1 bars. I have found that a string of zeros usually means "clear sailing". So from 1.9196 there was clear sailing to the upside.
This is how I am applying what I gleaned from the PDF. Something else to consider is that if there is clear sailing up then that means there is clear sailing back down, too. So it may behoove one to take smaller profits in the current market.
Live Trade Example
So for example USD/JPY today you have two possible levels of reversal. One at around 104.26
and the other at 104.37.
A: Price taps the level and makes a good sized retracement. Already your chances of getting a
good sized bounce on the next level are slim to none.
B: Price comes back up and cant take out the level and starts to decline again. Go short.
Important: during this time, I saw price being shoved down 4 pips at a time, with minor 1 or 2
pip pullbacks. You can tell what's going on. Just watch the ticks in relation to where price is.
Big orders coming on, chances are the rest will follow. I got all this from just looking at the
ticks. Usually these big orders lead to big moves.
C: 104.00 support. Price needs to close below it to go lower.
D: Diagonal trendline. Price needs to close (or open) below it to go lower.
E: Next major area of support/resistance. Target if C and D get met on an hourly basis.
This is the reason I have been discussing ticks. The "3" tells me this COULD BE a bottom reversal level. The ticks show me the price action. Looking at the support resistance gauge tells me if any of those prices have been H1 highs or lows over the last 240 H1 bars. I have found that a string of zeros usually means "clear sailing". So from 1.9196 there was clear sailing to the upside.
This is how I am applying what I gleaned from the PDF. Something else to consider is that if there is clear sailing up then that means there is clear sailing back down, too. So it may behoove one to take smaller profits in the current market.
- #2,645
- Aug 8, 2008 9:26am Aug 8, 2008 9:26am
- | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: shoe shine boy | 1,146 Posts
- #2,647
- Aug 8, 2008 9:32am Aug 8, 2008 9:32am
- Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 6,736 Posts
Time hides Nothing
- #2,654
- Aug 8, 2008 12:03pm Aug 8, 2008 12:03pm
Sorry for the long delay in posting/replying to posts today. I've been busy studying, disecting charts and setting price alerts after yesterday's significant loss. I'm trying to come back slowly... I always do, and then some! 
I also went back and read all the posts from where I signed off last night to get other traders insights of market direction... like I do everyday. I believe you can never learn enough, and many heads are better than one!
Thanks pipeye and Qman for your excellent insights and analysis! I agree with both of you 100%. (Ofcourse the other posts were all useful) This is one of the better threads here on forexfactory.
The stop was a typo as Verto pointed out. It should have been 1.8963, but thanks to the heads up, Qman. I went back and tightened it to 1.9070. I was trading off daily chart, with TP below 1.5280 resistance on daily, but set stop just below 200SMA on weekly (sometimes major moving averages act as magnets) .... had timeframes a little mixed up. Rookie mistake 
So the trade should read (for those who want to track it):
LONG gbp/usd 1.9159, stop 1.9070, TP 1.9345
I also want to add that losses are part of the game. I know most people here took big/small hits last night and this morning, like I did. Hopefuly we have all learned important lessons. Sometimes there's irrational and crazy moves like what we just saw, but they don't happen often. If trading was easy, everyone would be a succesful trader. Try to limit your losses when things act up, and make as many consistent, profitable trades as possible, when things return back to "normal". Just hang in there and follow this support and resistance strategy - it works!
Just my two cents
I also went back and read all the posts from where I signed off last night to get other traders insights of market direction... like I do everyday. I believe you can never learn enough, and many heads are better than one!
Thanks pipeye and Qman for your excellent insights and analysis! I agree with both of you 100%. (Ofcourse the other posts were all useful) This is one of the better threads here on forexfactory.
LONG gbp/usd 1.9159, stop 0.8963, TP 1.9345
So the trade should read (for those who want to track it):
LONG gbp/usd 1.9159, stop 1.9070, TP 1.9345
I also want to add that losses are part of the game. I know most people here took big/small hits last night and this morning, like I did. Hopefuly we have all learned important lessons. Sometimes there's irrational and crazy moves like what we just saw, but they don't happen often. If trading was easy, everyone would be a succesful trader. Try to limit your losses when things act up, and make as many consistent, profitable trades as possible, when things return back to "normal". Just hang in there and follow this support and resistance strategy - it works!
Just my two cents
- #2,659
- Aug 8, 2008 12:52pm Aug 8, 2008 12:52pm
I think you are in a pretty good position len with your longs.
But wow, this is the biggest daily candle in e/u history I think... or close to it anyway.
. If this support is broken, then I'll just change the direction and start shorting on bounces.