Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain | Page 247 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Chicky's House of Pleasure and Pain 11 replies

Carry Backet w/ Jacko's AH 10 replies

Hello Guys is a pleasure to be here. I'm new to MT4 1 reply

Jacko's P&P Trend Trading Method 73 replies

Attachments: Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain
Exit Attachments

Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #4,921
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:52am Aug 8, 2008 10:52am
When I look back at the monthly chart to Jan 2002, I see a HUGE UP trend that is really made of 2 LARGE UP trends and 1 MODERATE DOWN trend that retraced to the 38.2 Fib of the first large UP trend. See my attached chart.

We are obviously in a medium retracement and about halfway to the 38.2 of the latest UP trend fib. Nobody can say whether the larger 6 year trend is over unless you have a crystal ball. We can say that the current environment is not following the HUGE trend.

When the near-term shows no indication of following the HUGE trend, you really only have two choices. Sit on your hands until real resistance is met and the trend is resumed or play the countertrend.

I don't believe that Jacko ever said that all trends last forever or that they go uninterrupted. I think it is time to take some smaller countertrend positions with fairly tight stops until we hit resistance.

Am I offbase? I'm fairly new to this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd jan02-current trends.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #4,922
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:32am Aug 8, 2008 11:32am
Quoting coctostan
We are obviously in a medium retracement and about halfway to the 38.2 of the latest UP trend fib. Nobody can say whether the larger 6 year trend is over unless you have a crystal ball. We can say that the current environment is not following the HUGE trend.

When the near-term shows no indication of following the HUGE trend, you really only have two choices. Sit on your hands until real resistance is met and the trend is resumed or play the countertrend.

I don't believe that Jacko ever said that all trends last forever or that they go uninterrupted. I think it is time to take some smaller countertrend positions with fairly tight stops until we hit resistance.

Am I offbase? I'm fairly new to this.
I'm VERY new to this myself but rereading jacko's oridginal posts on page one yielded this little gem (amongst many):

Quote
Firstly, how do you know what the trend is?

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL

The trend is the BEST friend you will ever have in the Forex market.

When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem....If you make a mistake and you are fighting the trend ...YOU ARE STUFFED, BIG TIME !!!
I trade off of the 4 hour charts. Unfortunately while I don't have access to a 5 y/o I'll just have to make do. Since July 21 on the 4 hour chart, the trend is DOWN. I took long trades during this time and looking back I shouldn't have.

I've chosen the time frame I WANT TO TRADE and then I traded against the trend on that time frame because I was trading "with the bigger trend".

Maybe one of Jacko's turtles (or Jacko) can comment?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Aug. 08 10.21.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #4,923
  • Aug 8, 2008 1:43pm Aug 8, 2008 1:43pm
i'm do not know Jacko nor is his turtle... but yes, you seem quite a confused basta_d... why looking at one time frame while trading another time frame, it's like you're out of touch with the reality, you're in one dimension, and thinking about another dimension which doesn't affect you, like why would you be bothered with the monthly trend when you're trading the 4 hour? Well unless of coz you have to take note of the major rsst/sppt in the time frame above you! You know the answer to your own question anyway..
  • #4,924
  • Aug 8, 2008 3:49pm Aug 8, 2008 3:49pm
Quoting Gerard212
Edge

Clearly you dont understand the concept of a trend so i wont bother trying to explain so my only advice to you is that you stick with your day job.
Your negative thoughts provide nothing of any value.
Hi Gerard212....I think you might have fired off your keyboard a bit quickly here....Edge said he was being a "devil's advocate"...this is defined as:

In common parlance (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlance), a devil's advocate is someone who takes a position, sometimes one he or she disagrees with, for the sake of argument (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logical_argument). This process can be used to test the quality of the original argument and identify weaknesses in its structure.

Being able to look critically at both sides of a position is a crucial requirement for progress to be made...otherwise we'd all end up back in the dark ages, doing rain dances.

Cheers, Motu
  • #4,925
  • Aug 8, 2008 4:20pm Aug 8, 2008 4:20pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: !!jacko.gif Size: 19 KB


From a monthly perspective, price just regressed to the mean. No big deal, right?
  • #4,926
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:03pm Aug 8, 2008 5:03pm
If I remember correctly, back in 04-05 there was a similar fall. At that time it was 10 cents over two weeks or something, and euro was at 1.3. It was a wild ride, too. I can't remember exactly when and how much the fall was but I'm pretty sure it's after Christmas and it was big. Could someone pull up a chart and verify this?
Take a report.
  • #4,927
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:08pm Aug 8, 2008 5:08pm
It's been a long week. But we all made it! So relax a little bit and enjoy your weekend guys and girls!

For the guys, kick off your weekend here:
http://my.break.com/content/view.aspx?ContentID=418284

And for the girls, leave your numbers.
Take a report.
  • #4,928
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:25pm Aug 8, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting CateFul
It's been a long week. But we all made it! So relax a little bit and enjoy your weekend guys and girls!

For the guys, kick off your weekend here:
http://my.break.com/content/view.aspx?ContentID=418284

And for the girls, leave your numbers.

Hi CateFul,

Good video. I see a bit of flak coming your way.

BabeFX.
  • #4,929
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:49pm Aug 8, 2008 5:49pm
Quoting CateFul
If I remember correctly, back in 04-05 there was a similar fall. At that time it was 10 cents over two weeks or something, and euro was at 1.3. It was a wild ride, too. I can't remember exactly when and how much the fall was but I'm pretty sure it's after Christmas and it was big. Could someone pull up a chart and verify this?

CateFul,

A little more than a two week fall me thinks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmthly.gif Size: 49 KB
  • #4,930
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:56pm Aug 8, 2008 5:56pm
Quoting BabeFX
CateFul,

A little more than a two week fall me thinks.
Thanks!
Yes, that was the beginning of the 05 downtrend. the first 2 weeks was a bloodbath.
Take a report.
  • #4,931
  • Aug 8, 2008 6:08pm Aug 8, 2008 6:08pm
Quoting BabeFX
Hi CateFul,

Good video. I see a bit of flak coming your way.

BabeFX.
OK for the ladies,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vasc8ghyu1g
Take a report.
  • #4,932
  • Aug 8, 2008 8:16pm Aug 8, 2008 8:16pm
Motu

I agree with what you said but Edge lost his objectivity when he critizised Wattawatta.If he has a point to make then no problem since we are all in the same boat ie trying to make a buck,yen whatever! But drop the cynicism and be positive !
Happy Trading

Gerard
  • #4,933
  • Aug 9, 2008 3:23am Aug 9, 2008 3:23am
Quoting Gerard212
Motu

I agree with what you said but Edge lost his objectivity when he critizised Wattawatta.If he has a point to make then no problem since we are all in the same boat ie trying to make a buck,yen whatever! But drop the cynicism and be positive !
Happy Trading

Gerard
Yes, it did have a certain element of attack in it; there's devil's advocate and kicking someone when they're down.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #4,934
  • Aug 9, 2008 5:49am Aug 9, 2008 5:49am
same, after 1.6000 I was short... I could be wrong, but I have AH n proper MM. AH is the most important in this strategy IMHO
Quoting dragoncat
with respect for Jacko, not wanting to make this another EUR/USD thread, just briefly: as far as I'm concerned, with the time frame that "I" trade, the trend have been down since end of last month, about 1 week after the 1.6035 new high, and I've been shorting since, and I'm pretty sure that's the same way Jacko thinks as I saw that he's noted the double top of AUD/USD in another thread...
  • #4,935
  • Aug 9, 2008 7:35am Aug 9, 2008 7:35am
You are not off base at all. Many traders, as well as many of Jacko's Turltes ( including myself ) have been taking 'counter trend' positions.

The long term charts, suchs a monthly and weekly clearly show a long term up trend.

The shorter term charts, especially the 4hr and 1hr, clearly show a down trend, which can be successfuly traded. The down trend on the short term charts may be a retracement of the longer term trend, but it is still tradeable.

James


Quoting coctostan
When I look back at the monthly chart to Jan 2002, I see a HUGE UP trend that is really made of 2 LARGE UP trends and 1 MODERATE DOWN trend that retraced to the 38.2 Fib of the first large UP trend. See my attached chart.

We are obviously in a medium retracement and about halfway to the 38.2 of the latest UP trend fib. Nobody can say whether the larger 6 year trend is over unless you have a crystal ball. We can say that the current environment is not following the HUGE trend.

When the near-term shows no indication of following the HUGE trend, you really only have two choices. Sit on your hands until real resistance is met and the trend is resumed or play the countertrend.

I don't believe that Jacko ever said that all trends last forever or that they go uninterrupted. I think it is time to take some smaller countertrend positions with fairly tight stops until we hit resistance.

Am I offbase? I'm fairly new to this.
  • #4,936
  • Aug 9, 2008 10:51am Aug 9, 2008 10:51am
Quoting Blue@Heart
I'm VERY new to this myself but rereading jacko's oridginal posts on page one yielded this little gem (amongst many):

I trade off of the 4 hour charts. Unfortunately while I don't have access to a 5 y/o I'll just have to make do. Since July 21 on the 4 hour chart, the trend is DOWN. I took long trades during this time and looking back I shouldn't have.

I've chosen the time frame I WANT TO TRADE and then I traded against the trend on that time frame because I was trading "with the bigger trend".
That's the problem with this system. It is only good during trending periods. During ranging periods or during corrections you have no choice but keep losing if you are not shrewd enough to stay away. And it's difficult to be shrewd in this business. Open the daily chart and look at 2005 and 2006. It was up trending market that's why this system worked.

BTW, I have info on trades Jacko's group is taking. It's loss after loss, they are barely (if) at break even this year.
  • #4,937
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:29pm Aug 9, 2008 12:29pm
I disagree with those that post with intent to cast doubt on the method.
I actually believe your post are misguided to some extent.

The reason being is it is jmo that many currently on this thread have not learned enough of actually using this method and depend far too much on jacko himself and round numbers for the sake of round numbers.
Round numbers can help when used in the correct context. Simply putting on a trade because one is hit is not in the correct context.
jacko has stated many many times that he is only putting his own calls out (now in the private blog) to show what he is thinking and NOT as a signal service.
IMO his intention is to help others develop their own skills & method while using medium to longer term charts and using the trend with only basic tools, s/r, fib.

This is simply an alternative to the hundreds of approaches posted here using 1min to 60min charts that tend to eat newbies, (and others) for lunch. Teaching some to s l o w down and excercise a bit of control in their trading possibly allowing them to survive to trade another day.
Frankly I have been in disagreement for some time now with calls for long positions, but that is just me going on what I perceive from various charts. However because I might disagree with others for the time being does not mean I am throwing the whole approach out the window. I just see a little different point of view than some for now.
I do not believe the "Method" is at any fault here.

This past month should serve as a lesson to some that it is up to each individual trader to become proficient enough to depend on their own analysis of the current situation. That is all you will ever have unless you spend your entire time dependent on other's opinions.
man that would suck...

have a nice weekend all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #4,938
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:35pm Aug 9, 2008 12:35pm
Quoting aerio
That's the problem with this system. It is only good during trending periods. During ranging periods or during corrections you have no choice but keep losing if you are not shrewd enough to stay away. And it's difficult to be shrewd in this business. Open the daily chart and look at 2005 and 2006. It was up trending market that's why this system worked.

BTW, I have info on trades Jacko's group is taking. It's loss after loss, they are barely (if) at break even this year.

Correct me if I'm wrong please but the beauty of this method is in it's simplicity. If I look at a 4 hour chart and the entire chart is a downward trend then should I not trade with that trend?

Maybe I'm a crazy new trader but on the daily charts a trend can last for weeks. Jacko said that you pick the time frame you want to trade and then trade with the trend. I agree that you should always be aware of the larger trend. But the trend on the 4 hour is down (THE TIME FRAME I CHOSE TO TRADE)....and then I traded against it.....

So the question for either Jacko or his turtles is: "Is 'THE TREND' that you follow on the time frame you choose to trade? Or is it the longest term chart?"
  • #4,939
  • Aug 9, 2008 1:04pm Aug 9, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting Blue@Heart
But the trend on the 4 hour is down (THE TIME FRAME I CHOSE TO TRADE)....and then I traded against it.....
When did you determine the trend to be down on 4hr chart? When it broke 1.5280 and it is almost always too late to join the trend? Otherwise, 4hr chart was showing ranging market that could have easily broken out to the upside.
  • #4,940
  • Aug 9, 2008 1:38pm Aug 9, 2008 1:38pm
Blueheart,
your 4 hr chart was saying down,
looking at the weekly chart posted above your post.
click it & zoom it in.
over the last 3 weeks I would be hard pressed to find any bias for up there.
Did I think it might at least bounce off the 5300 area? yes.
Was I wrong about that? yes (well it paused momentarily, very weakly which foretold what happened next.)
Will .4950 area hold? Heck if I know.
Normally I would expect it to bounce but is this Normal??
I think there could be some abnormal action to come yet.

Make a plan for either event,
If someone has no plan then they will either miss the opportunity or shoot from the hip and maybe lose a bundle.(sure they may get lucky but who wants to depend on luck for more than 5 minutes??)
A plan will let you execute a thought out trade with proper risk concerns addressed in a calm manner.
Sometimes a good plan is to do nothing (yet).

jmo.
0 traders viewing now