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  • #2,621
  • Aug 8, 2008 8:59am Aug 8, 2008 8:59am
Quoting pipeye
Although, 1.5000 seems like a logical spot for a bounce, the irrationality of the current price moves coincident with the happenings on the dollar index, leads me to believe that this sucker has some juice left.

There is a nice confluence of support in the 1.4744-1.4775 area - Yearly M3 pivot, 76.4% of current run (12/07 - 07/08) and the fulfillment of the Double Top price projection. Seems like a nice area for some sanity to creep back into the market!
I sure would think so. Oil is breaking under $117 though, and could literally free fall another 10-15 dollars.
I'm eyeing the same level as you. It's as big of a No Brainer as I can think of. I just don't know about that oil deal. I'll still go long, but I don't know if I'll take a very big position. Highest I see it going under current conditions is 1.5280, which would still be a nice run.
I mean, it has to correct soon right?!? lol

That said, the next No Brainer would be to short at 1.5280 if it does bounce up to there.
  • #2,622
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:05am Aug 8, 2008 9:05am
eur/jpy hitting support at 165.31 level. small bounce so far. But since it is Friday there might not be much follow thru.
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  • #2,623
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:12am Aug 8, 2008 9:12am
Quoting finswin56
I sure would think so. Oil is breaking under $117 though, and could literally free fall another 10-15 dollars.
I'm eyeing the same level as you. It's as big of a No Brainer as I can think of. I just don't know about that oil deal. I'll still go long, but I don't know if I'll take a very big position. Highest I see it going under current conditions is 1.5280, which would still be a nice run.
I mean, it has to correct soon right?!? lol

That said, the next No Brainer would be to short at 1.5280 if it does bounce up to there.
A long term long position in the current environment does sound a little risky. But, given that we are in August, and the dollar and oil were long overdue for a serious correction, once September rolls around and the reality of the situation with the US economy sets back in, Oil will begin it's rise to 150 again and the Euro to 1.70 (IMHO).

p.s. Watch the demand for oil increase significantly after the Beijing Olympics, when the pollution restrictions are removed and consumption in China returns to it's previous levels.
  • #2,624
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:13am Aug 8, 2008 9:13am
Quoting Hensby
Does your "big 3" stay still. Tried using that on larger t/frames but it doesnt offer any advantage at all. If a new high or low is made it just moves to that, so whats the point?
Most people do NOT understand that is more than one way to use an indicator. They think that every indicator is a buy/sell trigger when that is not the case at all.

Does price stay still? Of course not. Neither should an indicator. Does the fact that a price chart moves up and down mean that it doesn't offer any advantage? An indicator displays the current situation and may show historical data and a price chart does the same.

I use the big "3" as a HEADS UP call. It means to watch for a reversal. Then next step is to wait for one or more of my trade trigger indicators to fire.

A hammer can be used to create or destroy. Don't blame the hammer.
  • #2,625
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:15am Aug 8, 2008 9:15am
Quoting Sainz4Pips
What is the Big 3?
That's what I call the "3" that the 3 Level ZZ Semafor indicator plots.
  • #2,626
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:15am Aug 8, 2008 9:15am
Short 162.71
  • #2,627
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:19am Aug 8, 2008 9:19am
Quoting Hensby
On codemunchers charts the yellow dot with a 3. Its an indicator which signals potential tops & bottoms but dont bother it changes like the wind.
By your logic then one shouldn't look at the daily high/low because, that too, "changes like the wind".

If you have a horizontal plot of the daily high/low that will change. Does that invalidate the usefulness of the indicator? The problem lies not with the indicator. One must look in the mirror for the solution.
  • #2,628
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:23am Aug 8, 2008 9:23am
hmmmm.......hoping for 4980 wonder if we r done tanking for the day?
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #2,629
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:40am Aug 8, 2008 9:40am
Quoting moneymagnet
hmmmm.......hoping for 4980 wonder if we r done tanking for the day?
Well it had a close look at 1.5000 - do you think it might come back for a second look?
  • #2,630
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:45am Aug 8, 2008 9:45am
Quoting Grath
Well it had a close look at 1.5000 - do you think it might come back for a second look?
i am definitely watching it. it's friday so we may have some profit taking after 12pm est
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #2,631
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:50am Aug 8, 2008 9:50am
Quoting CodeMuncher
By your logic then one shouldn't look at the daily high/low because, that too, "changes like the wind".

If you have a horizontal plot of the daily high/low that will change. Does that invalidate the usefulness of the indicator? The problem lies not with the indicator. One must look in the mirror for the solution.
Point taken. I`ll go look in the mirror, but it will probably break. I`m bloody ugly.
  • #2,632
  • Aug 8, 2008 9:56am Aug 8, 2008 9:56am
Quoting pipeye
A long term long position in the current environment does sound a little risky. But, given that we are in August, and the dollar and oil were long overdue for a serious correction, once September rolls around and the reality of the situation with the US economy sets back in, Oil will begin it's rise to 150 again and the Euro to 1.70 (IMHO).

p.s. Watch the demand for oil increase significantly after the Beijing Olympics, when the pollution restrictions are removed and consumption in China returns to it's previous levels.
Could be, but I'm not sure I agree about the "reality of the situation". The US economy is by no means good, but the Euro and UK are just beginning to realize the downturn in their respective economies. Meanwhile, the data out of the US is beginning to stabilize. Employment hasn't yet, but it's always the last to do so. I'm not calling a US recovery any time this year, but vs. the Euro it's improving.
  • #2,633
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:08am Aug 8, 2008 10:08am
LONG gbp/usd 1.9159, stop 0.8963, TP 1.9345

And the madness continues. This is the wildest action I've seen in forex
  • #2,634
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:14am Aug 8, 2008 10:14am
Quoting pipeye
A long term long position in the current environment does sound a little risky. But, given that we are in August, and the dollar and oil were long overdue for a serious correction, once September rolls around and the reality of the situation with the US economy sets back in, Oil will begin it's rise to 150 again and the Euro to 1.70 (IMHO).

p.s. Watch the demand for oil increase significantly after the Beijing Olympics, when the pollution restrictions are removed and consumption in China returns to it's previous levels.
I find that when the conclusions I draw from my analysis are completely contrary to what I am seeing happening, I usually have put myself on a stake and lit the fire.

Any rational person knows that someday oil will almost certainly reach $150 because it is a limited commodity. Knowing WHEN it will reach that is much trickier. Expecting it to get there while it is tumbling away seems like folly to me. Better to consider what is in the immediate future. If I WANT or EXPECT oil to go to $150 I could easily miss that oil WANTS to go to $102, then $110, then 98, 112, 109, 117, 110, 126,104... before someday getting to 150.

As for the Euro, we are not talking about a limited commodity, so the inevitability of reaching 1.7 is much more debatable. Consider this: Governments, no matter how much you agree or disagree with their reasoning, are not completely predictable entities. They are very much able to make policy changes and take other actions, diplomatic, military or other that we are very likely to NOT properly anticipate or NOT properly understand ALL of the interactive consequences. So to decide you know that a currency is going to go to a level that it has never reached before is pretty bold. But it is also very easy to say. The problem I have had with that in the past has been the same as what I describe for predicting the price journeys of oil.

In the end, the objective here is to make money doing whatever the market does. As soon as I start making predictions I know my ego is getting too engaged, and I need to remember, what I WANT or think MUST happen is completely irrelevent in the face of what IS happening. Because survival in the IS is far more important than being right. Little losses if I understand the market incorrectly so that I can thrive when I understand it correctly. Doing so otherwise will surely slay your account.

If the Euro does go to 1.7, there is certainly money to be made. If it goes to 1.3, there is money to be made. If it bounces around any significant amount between, below, or above those numbers... there is significant money to be made. Betting on 1.7 right now would be a Hail Mary pass in my book, and even more so with each succeeding tick down. Sometimes those passes are caught, and boy do we remember them. Often they are not. The teams that depend on them to win are usually losers. The teams that can grind out their wins more weeks than they lose are winning teams. Trade like that. They don't have goals like, Win every game by 30 points. They have goals like, Win as many games as possible... Figure out what your opponent does, AND watch how he reacts and changes, and work that to your advantage.

So, you might be right on all accounts in your analysis, but I'm trying really hard not to listen to it, with all due respect, because it is likely to make me dinner for one of the big banks out there. Actually, that isn't fair to you. MY BELIEF in what you are saying might cause me to act counter to what will make me a winner. That isn't YOUR fault. And there is nothing wrong with your sharing. But I know I'm not the only one that needs to hear what I'm saying here. Good luck with your goals, and good fortune in all your endeavors.
  • #2,635
  • Edited 10:38am Aug 8, 2008 10:17am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting Hensby
Point taken. I`ll go look in the mirror, but it will probably break. I`m bloody ugly.
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I wasn't trying to be rude. It's just that so many people do not understand indicators for what they really are - another way of interpreting price/volume/time data.

A 1 tick chart is the purest chart. Anything else becomes interpretation.

The H1 chart above is an interpretation of the tick data appearing in the bottom window. The high and low of the H1 candle changes during that hour, right? But that doesn't mean the candle chart is of no use.
  • #2,636
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:39am Aug 8, 2008 10:39am
There's a little support here on eur/jpy. Double bottom and sitting on 100SMA on daily, although with these crazy moves nothing is certain
  • #2,637
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:43am Aug 8, 2008 10:43am
Quoting CodeMuncher
I wasn't trying to be rude. It's just that so many people do not understand indicators for what they really are - another way of interpreting price/volume/time data.

A 1 tick chart is the purest chart. Anything else becomes interpretation.
unless you have psychic powers, everything is interpretation
  • #2,638
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:46am Aug 8, 2008 10:46am
gbp/jpy also on support... rising trendline on daily

usd/chf tested 1.0845 which is 61.8% fib and previous support on daily
  • #2,639
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:02am Aug 8, 2008 11:02am
Quoting c-note
unless you have psychic powers, everything is interpretation
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Perhaps I was not clear and you didn't understand.

A 1 tick chart is pure. It shows what the price was at a certain time. The display is pure. There is nothing to dissect. It is price and time. Nothing more.

A H1 candle is an interpretive display of what occurred during that hour. It tells you the open, the high, the low and the close price for that hour. It "condenses" the 1 tick data for that hour into a H1 candle.

There is nothing "psychic" about this. It's not predicative, it is representative. It represents what happened.

Does that help explain?

If you look at the chart above and the chart from my previous post, you'll see how the tick data streamed by. The price went sideways and then took off. Very easy to see. It's the same as looking at time/sales but as a chart.
  • #2,640
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:03am Aug 8, 2008 11:03am
Quoting len979
LONG gbp/usd 1.9159, stop 0.8963, TP 1.9345

And the madness continues. This is the wildest action I've seen in forex
I blame the Olympics.
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