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  • #2,601
  • Aug 8, 2008 3:36am Aug 8, 2008 3:36am
Quoting loudoniii
Euro (EUR/USD) Short @ 1.5193.

Last mini-Support level on the crash down.

Looking now for a weak recovery attempt before shorting off again around 1.5193.

This is just above its Weekly Fibo 50% level @ 1.5173.

Not a lot of historical confirmation at this level, but there was a congestion area around this mark back in late February / early March timeframe.

Tight stop above the double zero, maybe 1.5218.
Hi Loudonii - guess we still think the same on S&R, although I also like using the 50s and 100s too....From a post I made earlier elsewhere:

"LOL - I'm also looking at the 50% retrace of the Dec 20 low to July 15 high - I actually have it at 1.5173, so was working with 5150 as a more likely level....I've taken a small long from there....

Edit: also long cable as it only dropped 14 in the euro's last 70 pip drop"

PS Both long scalps closed for profit, time for a coffee break http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
  • #2,602
  • Aug 8, 2008 3:39am Aug 8, 2008 3:39am
Any take or analysis on EJ 4HTF??

sonic
  • #2,603
  • Edited 3:54am Aug 8, 2008 3:52am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting Jono
Hi Loudonii - guess we still think the same on S&R, although I also like using the 50s and 100s too....From a post I made earlier elsewhere:

"LOL - I'm also looking at the 50% retrace of the Dec 20 low to July 15 high - I actually have it at 1.5173, so was working with 5150 as a more likely level....I've taken a small long from there....

Edit: also long cable as it only dropped 14 in the euro's last 70 pip drop"

PS Both long scalps closed for profit, time for a coffee break http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Good call Jono !

I notice that all our favourite pairs respond with respect to all the Weekly Fibo levels, not just the stronger ones (50% + 76.4%).

As a matter of routine, I mark all the Weekly Fibo levels on all my charts.

I find that there is almost always a good S+R level nearby, that triggers some significant reaction when hit.

For example, Euro is slowly bouncing around its 50% Weekly Fibo level of 1.5173 right now.

This is the 1st stopping point after a precipitate drop in the last 20+ hours.
  • #2,604
  • Aug 8, 2008 4:03am Aug 8, 2008 4:03am
Can anyone share some thought on current chfjpy? I picked support region 102.45-102.32 from the daily.

cheers!

Rafa.
  • #2,605
  • Aug 8, 2008 4:24am Aug 8, 2008 4:24am
Quoting metalorn
Can anyone share some thought on current chfjpy? I picked support region 102.45-102.32 from the daily.

cheers!

Rafa.
Just gave it a quick look (don't trade this pair) and here's what I see:
Blue 50% fib area around 101.65-101.80, and then 101.30
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  • #2,606
  • Aug 8, 2008 4:28am Aug 8, 2008 4:28am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Any take or analysis on EJ 4HTF??

sonic

Looking for a bounce off 166.00/165.30
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  • #2,607
  • Aug 8, 2008 4:54am Aug 8, 2008 4:54am
thank you NowAndLater,

this one is about to margin me out.

rafa.

Quoting NowAndLater
Just gave it a quick look (don't trade this pair) and here's what I see:
Blue 50% fib area around 101.65-101.80, and then 101.30
  • #2,608
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:00am Aug 8, 2008 5:00am
Quoting metalorn
thank you NowAndLater,

this one is about to margin me out.

rafa.
I wouldn't be picking any bottoms for now - it's totally crazy out there. i would wait for retracement to go with trend. I'm happy to be in longterm dollarlongs though. But both EU and GU has moved 220 pips today, and there doesn't seem to be an end to the madness...
Will be interesting to see what the US session brings
  • #2,609
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:07am Aug 8, 2008 5:07am
Quoting loudoniii
Euro (EUR/USD) Short @ 1.5193.

Last mini-Support level on the crash down.

Looking now for a weak recovery attempt before shorting off again around 1.5193.

This is just above its Weekly Fibo 50% level @ 1.5173, its last tiny bounce-up point before the continuing drop.

Not a lot of historical confirmation at this level, but there was a congestion area around this mark back in late February / early March timeframe.

Tight stop above the double zero, maybe 1.5218.
This pair has been so good to me this week. The only issue is trying to get back in. The bounces have been so small, and rarely back to a nice support turned resistance spot. It's gone so far already today, I think I'm going to sit tight and just ride out the rest with the small position I still have open. If I were to sell again, it looks like 1.5140-5130 might be it right now. This thing just hasn't retraced since the Trichet's conference.
  • #2,610
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:33am Aug 8, 2008 5:33am
Quoting finswin56
This pair has been so good to me this week. The only issue is trying to get back in. The bounces have been so small, and rarely back to a nice support turned resistance spot. It's gone so far already today, I think I'm going to sit tight and just ride out the rest with the small position I still have open. If I were to sell again, it looks like 1.5140-5130 might be it right now. This thing just hasn't retraced since the Trichet's conference.

A month ago I read a Freshpips.com article saying USD/ CAD will reach 1.08 and EUR willgo down to 1.52. I laughed at the idea but not laughing now. I still think, with weakness in CAD, going long USD/ CAD seems like a wise move. Still..
  • #2,611
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:44am Aug 8, 2008 5:44am
Quoting seesaw
A month ago I read a Freshpips.com article saying USD/ CAD will reach 1.08 and EUR willgo down to 1.52. I laughed at the idea but not laughing now. I still think, with weakness in CAD, going long USD/ CAD seems like a wise move. Still..
It just broke through pretty important resistance. I think I'll start buying on pull backs
.
  • #2,612
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:53am Aug 8, 2008 5:53am
i am holding until they come out ...to decide
  • #2,613
  • Aug 8, 2008 6:02am Aug 8, 2008 6:02am
Quoting demeo
i am holding until they come out ...to decide
Looks like you got your answer! Buy on all dips
  • #2,614
  • Aug 8, 2008 6:06am Aug 8, 2008 6:06am
its easy to say when you are on the right side of the money , i am sitting out the market is all over the place .. sanity may return soon.. good luck ..
  • #2,615
  • Aug 8, 2008 6:47am Aug 8, 2008 6:47am
Quoting loudoniii
Good call Jono !

I notice that all our favourite pairs respond with respect to all the Weekly Fibo levels, not just the stronger ones (50% + 76.4%).

As a matter of routine, I mark all the Weekly Fibo levels on all my charts.

I find that there is almost always a good S+R level nearby, that triggers some significant reaction when hit.

For example, Euro is slowly bouncing around its 50% Weekly Fibo level of 1.5173 right now.

This is the 1st stopping point after a precipitate drop in the last 20+ hours.
Hi i was just wondering about the weekly fibo levels. I can see that you are talking about the lowest level on 12/07 and the highest level on july 08. But what are the rules to decide that I'll take 12/07 as the lowest? Just looking at the weekly it makes sense to pick low in dec and high in july but am I missing something else?
Thanks for your great posts
Max
  • #2,616
  • Aug 8, 2008 7:14am Aug 8, 2008 7:14am
EUR/USD down to 1.4967-21. I'd leave a larger stop here, but I don't see anything to stop it on the way down.
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  • #2,617
  • Edited 7:52am Aug 8, 2008 7:40am | Edited 7:52am
Quoting dorellino
Hi i was just wondering about the weekly fibo levels. I can see that you are talking about the lowest level on 12/07 and the highest level on july 08. But what are the rules to decide that I'll take 12/07 as the lowest? Just looking at the weekly it makes sense to pick low in dec and high in july but am I missing something else?
Thanks for your great posts
Max
Hi Max !

No magic science to picking the best Weekly Fibo To / From levels really.

All I do is to try to take the last decent run up / down on the Weekly chart, that encompasses all the action to the right of it, up to date.

By preference, I try to choose the run in the opposite direction to current action.

So if the most recent minor swing has been up, then I try to choose the last major swing down on which to put the Fibo.

If it fits well, which it often does, I try to choose the run High and Low that mean that current price lands in an interesting Fibo level, eg 50%-ish or 76.4%-ish.

I don't draw the Weekly Fibo where all the last recent action is in the 0 - 23.6% zone, because that doesn't tell me anything.

Neither do I choose the run High and Low so that all the current action is in the 90 - 95% zone area, as it is too tight to tell me anything meaningful.

These are just my own ideas on it, and I'm very open to suggestions.

If you draw the Weekly Fibo as above, almost all the times each individual Fibo level is a significant S+R level in its own right, or adds extra weight to the nearest BRV S+R level, if you prefer to look at it this way.

As my 1st action in marking up a new chart, I now draw the Weekly Fibo as above.

I find this gives me a great starting point to start looking for BRV S+R levels, either at or within key Fibo zones.

Cheers, Loudoniii
  • #2,618
  • Aug 8, 2008 7:46am Aug 8, 2008 7:46am
Looks like USD/ CAD 1.08 might be around the corner..
  • #2,619
  • Aug 8, 2008 7:57am Aug 8, 2008 7:57am
Sell USD/JPY 110.49 for a 38 pip scalp

Then Buy @110.11 And build a position all the way up to 112.76
  • #2,620
  • Edited 8:58am Aug 8, 2008 8:40am | Edited 8:58am
Although, 1.5000 seems like a logical spot for a bounce, the irrationality of the current price moves coincident with the happenings on the dollar index, leads me to believe that this sucker has some juice left.

There is a nice confluence of support in the 1.4744-1.4775 area - Yearly M3 pivot, 76.4% of current run (12/07 - 07/08) and the fulfillment of the Double Top price projection. Seems like a nice area for some sanity to creep back into the market!

One caveat, I do intend to have a pretty wide stop - one wide enough to allow me to enter a postion around 1.4700, as I intend on holding this for a possible run-up to 1.7000
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