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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #461
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:30am Feb 12, 2007 10:30am
I find it difficult to follow MACD signals at times of good strong trend.
MACD gives clear signals against the trend which are often dangerous, and almost none against the trend. So it seems that during the trend one can enter using 5-min strategy. enter into trade at pullback between 8 and 21 mas and then enter with small s/l under 21 ma hoping that trend continues.

What would be the best technique entering into the trend?

anyway here is improved MACD (I hope). It shows 2 colors for up movement and down movement. This will allow to clearly see change in direction. It also scaled in pips. This way all currencies will have the same levels regardless of decimal point. It is preset for H4-300pips strategy 5-13-1 with levels set at 45,30,15,-15,-30,-45.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MACD_H4_300_v100.mq4   3 KB | 6,558 downloads
  • #462
  • Edited 10:52am Feb 12, 2007 10:32am | Edited 10:52am
Watch the 89SMA and 200SMA getting closer to one another with all the other MA's inbetween. We are in for something.

Sorry. The EurUsd and with lesser extend the Gbp
  • #463
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:46am Feb 12, 2007 10:46am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Watch the 89SMA and 200SMA getting closer to one another with all the other MA's inbetween. We are in for something.
For which pair Phillip?
  • #464
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:51am Feb 12, 2007 10:51am
Quoting irusoh
I find it difficult to follow MACD signals at times of good strong trend.
MACD gives clear signals against the trend which are often dangerous, and almost none against the trend. So it seems that during the trend one can enter using 5-min strategy. enter into trade at pullback between 8 and 21 mas and then enter with small s/l under 21 ma hoping that trend continues.

What would be the best technique entering into the trend?

anyway here is improved MACD (I hope). It shows 2 colors for up movement and down movement. This will allow to clearly see change in direction. It also scaled in pips. This way all currencies will have the same levels regardless of decimal point. It is preset for H4-300pips strategy 5-13-1 with levels set at 45,30,15,-15,-30,-45.


The 89SMA is the indicator for a trend. If price is below then the mood is bearish and visa versa. If the price is below the 89SMA and it pulls back to the 21EMA and gives a MACD trend continue signal that is when you enter and as long as the price stays below the 21EMA you sit and collect pips.
  • #465
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:53am Feb 12, 2007 10:53am
Quoting alcastro
For which pair Phillip?
Sorry. The EurUsd and the Gbp also but with lesser extend.
  • #466
  • Feb 12, 2007 11:01am Feb 12, 2007 11:01am
Is this a good setup coming up on GBP?
Though it shows tails and didn't break thru 365ma
Attached Image
  • #467
  • Feb 12, 2007 11:19am Feb 12, 2007 11:19am
Quoting JArbuckle
If you want to have charts that are exactly like the MACD examples, you can open a demo acct from MIG forex at: www.migfx.ch. Use the demo account to identify the MACD entry points and use your cuurent broker to manage your trades.
Thanks. I will do that.
  • #468
  • Feb 12, 2007 11:24am Feb 12, 2007 11:24am
Look at the chart and work out the amount of pips gained or lossed in total over all the signals. Remember that countertrend trades are to the 21EMA area only. Check the R:R ratio.

See where the trades are made with a trend.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Trend trading with MACD.pdf   35 KB | 9,034 downloads
  • #469
  • Edited 11:48am Feb 12, 2007 11:29am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting irusoh
Is this a good setup coming up on GBP?
Though it shows tails and didn't break thru 365ma

Wait for 4hour candle to close. Could be a head and shoulder on the MACD. Only then decide. 365EMA and 1.9500 price level barriers in the way. Wait,,,wait,,,wait..


Remember that we are in a downtrend on the Gbp. It broke the 89SMA downwards and pulled back twice towards the 21EMA.
  • #470
  • Feb 12, 2007 11:34am Feb 12, 2007 11:34am
Quoting tamkras
Hi Tw0eleven, we shall need to see some form of bulls' consolidation to make a long call. Let me get back to you with what I think later day. Just busy right now...
my take on euro and cable at this moment:

1). euro bounced off weekly support line and made a nice 1 hr pin. we need MACD pattern to confirm the bulls power. If solely played on 1 hr pin, my target would be around @1.2983. But I can not initiate long position as there is no MACD signal yet.

2). cable looks promising for the long with MACD unfolding better. The last swing low of the bears has failed to produce similar or longer 4-hr bear candle. Price bounced off swing high of the previous W pattern dated January 8th.

General remark: both pairs, in my view, are forming an ascending triangle on 5-min chart. This is not always a bullish structure. If busted, we can see further downturn. Sorry, as I do not sit at my trading computer, I can not provide some charts. But this is what I see. I am looking at the MACD unfolding for cable and breakout from the triangle.
  • #471
  • Feb 12, 2007 1:24pm Feb 12, 2007 1:24pm
EurUsd have not shown anything yet.
1. No action

GbpUsd shows a tiny round bottom backed by a not so perfect MACD inverted head and sholder.
1. Signal long
2. Target 365EMA and 1.9500 = +20 pips (Have already been tested-previous candle)
3. Stoploss = 25+ pips.(Below 2 candles back)
4. R:R < 0.9 NOT GOOD
5. I will pass this one.
6. Wait for further MACD guidance at 0:00 GMT
  • #472
  • Feb 12, 2007 1:26pm Feb 12, 2007 1:26pm
dear phillip
I ask u if u plz stay with us till the end of this candle
I'm looking for gbpusd
i think it's gona be good lesson to me

I see a divergance >>> and also could be head and shoulders
but it also could drop down again.. if it close low near 1.9430
so I need your opinion when the candle close


meny thanks
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #473
  • Feb 12, 2007 2:04pm Feb 12, 2007 2:04pm
so any one can see any thing new ... ???
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #474
  • Feb 12, 2007 2:22pm Feb 12, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting mandoaddam
so any one can see any thing new ... ???
There is Phillip update just above. No new positions so far.

Cable's recent 4HR candle is bearish and the new one is just testing its previous low. Let's have lunch, folks.
  • #475
  • Edited 4:07pm Feb 12, 2007 3:08pm | Edited 4:07pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The MACD made a run towards zero and then turn up giving a signal for long.
1. Signal was turnaround above zero
2. Direction = long
3. Where is resistance = ±20 pips away to trendline
4. Stoploss to below 200SMA or 1.3000 = ± 20 pips
5. R:R OK
6. Go long with profit target trendline = 15-20 pips
7. Not very much room to trendline so set breakeven after 10+ pips.


That would have been my way


The Gbp I said that it broke through the 89SMA and pulled back to the 21EMA so a trend is on. The scenario was a pullback to the 21EMA and then trend continue. Unfortenately the down move was sudden. Did not give MACD signal.
Phillip,
With regards to Gbp, don't you consider the MACD gave a 'Round Bottom' as well as a 'Lower High' signals on 207-02-08, 0:00 GMT? These signals told to go short! Please comment. It is important for me to clear some confusion.
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #476
  • Feb 12, 2007 3:53pm Feb 12, 2007 3:53pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Wait for 4hour candle to close. Could be a head and shoulder on the MACD. Only then decide. 365EMA and 1.9500 price level barriers in the way. Wait,,,wait,,,wait..


Remember that we are in a downtrend on the Gbp. It broke the 89SMA downwards and pulled back twice towards the 21EMA.
Hi Phillip,,
In the case of GBP chart posted by Irusoh (#466) I agree that the price should break the 365 MA and the 1.9500 price barrier to be considered for a long. Regarding the H&S formation, even if the MACD is make H&S, it is going to be a long trade. So, what is the significance of waiting to confirm whether it is a H&S or not. I appreciate your observation and comment on this
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #477
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:05pm Feb 12, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
EurUsd have not shown anything yet.
1. No action

GbpUsd shows a tiny round bottom backed by a not so perfect MACD inverted head and sholder.
1. Signal long
2. Target 365EMA and 1.9500 = +20 pips (Have already been tested-previous candle)
3. Stoploss = 25+ pips.(Below 2 candles back)
4. R:R < 0.9 NOT GOOD
5. I will pass this one.
6. Wait for further MACD guidance at 0:00 GMT
Phillip,
What an observation!!! My God!!!

You are so much into your system and have so much confidence in you and in your method!! I don't think you will have any second thought about your observations! So much convinced of your method and so much committed to it in your intellect.

I love your committment to teach us too! Can we come up to your conviction and committment, Do you think we can raise up to your expections? ? I wish we all can reach that level of yours!
But, but....... we are getting at it though, slowly but steadily. We understand you and THAT IS A GREAT ACHIEVEMENT TO MANY OF US!!. In few days or weeks or months (or years?) we will be able to think like you!!
Thanks for your intellectual ability and willingness and determination to pull us all up to your level (inspite of many moving average resistances and trendline resistances and price barriershttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif)
-Chandra.
  • #478
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:10pm Feb 12, 2007 4:10pm
Oops!,
In my posting #475 I said 'Round Top' instead of 'Round Bottom'. I immediately edited it though.
Sorry.
-Chandra
  • #479
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:41pm Feb 12, 2007 4:41pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Look at the chart and work out the amount of pips gained or lossed in total over all the signals. Remember that countertrend trades are to the 21EMA area only. Check the R:R ratio.

See where the trades are made with a trend.
Phillip,

Referring to the chart you attached to this posting on 'counter trend trades:
It is a great chart!
1. If price crosses below the 89 SMA, we are in down trend.
2. In this down trend, take all short signals given by MACD in nomal way with appropriate s/l and tp using trend lines, MAs and price barriers.
3. If you get a signal in MACD to go long while you are in this down trend situation, make sure your long trade is going to be upto 21EMA area ONLY and, based on that, calculate R:R ratio.
4. If R;R ratio is one or better, take it. Otherwise skip the trade.
5. Same rules apply to up trend. (Of course, in reverse orderhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif).
Please comment.
Thanks.
  • #480
  • Feb 12, 2007 5:04pm Feb 12, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,
With regards to Gbp, don't you consider the MACD gave a 'Round Bottom' as well as a 'Lower High' signals on 207-02-08, 0:00 GMT? These signals told to go short! Please comment. It is important for me to clear some confusion.
Thanks.
-Chandra
The first part refered to the EurUsd to go long to trendline
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