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  • #2,461
  • Aug 7, 2008 12:40am Aug 7, 2008 12:40am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
No I mean there are plenty of intraday trades that are high probability as well. I post the bigger ones expecting the bigger bang out of them; that's pretty much it; but many of the smaller levels, if coinciding with trend continuation, could lead to just as many/or more pips.
hi billy did you take the u/cad trade? or did you disregard that due to the falling oil prices.
  • #2,462
  • Aug 7, 2008 12:45am Aug 7, 2008 12:45am
tight consolidation in the gbp/usd is somethin to watch we may see a breakout
  • #2,463
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:13am Aug 7, 2008 1:13am
USD/CHF scalp long from 557 - 552 maybe?
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,464
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:38am Aug 7, 2008 1:38am
Quoting CindyXXXX
USD/CHF scalp long from 557 - 552 maybe?
Cindy - Yeah, I've been looking at that one too.

I'm a bit nervous about putting it in, as it is both Pound + Euro rate announcement around Noontime today.

Then the dreaded Trichet Press Conference @ 12:30 GMT ... always a bit unpredictable, able to tip the market one way or another depending on whether the tone is dovish or hawkish.

See BRV notes on this earlier: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2451 .

Some funny things can happen, with market volatility.

And London doesn't open for another 20 mins or so - London Open usually always brings some sense of direction.

Around the 1.504 area, 50% Fibo of last runup, looks to me to be a safer level to go long on the Swissie.

Let's see how it plays out.

Cheers, Loudoniii
  • #2,465
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:59am Aug 7, 2008 1:59am
Good call loudinii

THeres a bit of confluence around the 0540 - -520 area with the 4 hr trendline and 61 fib level But I think your right about the safest entry down at 504

cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,466
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:17am Aug 7, 2008 2:17am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Good call loudinii

THeres a bit of confluence around the 0540 - -520 area with the 4 hr trendline and 61 fib level But I think your right about the safest entry down at 504

cheers
If in doubt, I'd always go for the S+R level closest to one of our trusted Fibo levels, usually 50% or 76.4%, on the 4-hr chart.

50% on a relatively sedate pair, say the Euro or Swissie.

76.4% on the more volatile beasts, eg Cable, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, etc.

Always subject to the "body language" of the candles, of course.

Worst thing that can happen normally is that you miss the odd trade or two - no prob - there's another one coming along real soon.

Better to choose the good S+R levels in keeping with our No Brainer principles, I reckon.
  • #2,467
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:25am Aug 7, 2008 2:25am
Quoting loudoniii
If in doubt, I'd always go for the S+R level closest to one of our trusted Fibo levels, usually 50% or 76.4%, on the 4-hr chart.

50% on a relatively sedate pair, say the Euro or Swissie.

76.4% on the more volatile beasts, eg Cable, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, etc.

Always subject to the "body language" of the candles, of course.

Worst thing that can happen normally is that you miss the odd trade or two - no prob - there's another one coming along real soon.

Better to choose the good S+R levels in keeping with our No Brainer principles, I reckon.
Good advice thanks again Loudoniii -
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,468
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:41am Aug 7, 2008 2:41am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I like this...thanks for the tip!
You're welcome BRV !
I'm still short on USDCAD from 1.0459 but I see that 1.0447 could be a strong support level, will see how it develop. My sl is set to -40 pips , tp set at lower support at 1.0394
Are you still in this trade ?

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #2,469
  • Aug 7, 2008 3:09am Aug 7, 2008 3:09am
Afternoon

Gbp/usd long @ 1.9360 -50

Not sure how bad the news could be but if it does get down there in the next couple of days there should be a few buy orders at this level IMHO.
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  • #2,470
  • Edited 3:32am Aug 7, 2008 3:27am | Edited 3:32am
Quoting Siam
Afternoon

Gbp/usd long @ 1.9360 -50

Not sure how bad the news could be but if it does get down there in the next couple of days there should be a few buy orders at this level IMHO.
1.9360 looks good to me too, Siam.

Prior to that level, I also see some intermediate support in the 1.9391 - 1.9407 zone.

Thanks for the call.
  • #2,471
  • Aug 7, 2008 3:51am Aug 7, 2008 3:51am
Have to see how the IRS on GBP is today but good levels to watch IMO:

Long: 2.0478-2.0496
Short: 2.0786-2.0804

We have already seen price rejected off a very nice level of 2.0658 late yesterday, which would have been a nice short point. We have support at 2.0530, which has held price well recently but i think the lower levels would be a better long attempt. This is very rangebound at the moment and this could be a nice long off the base of the smaller upper range.
Need to see how strong the moves are after the IRS

Steve
  • #2,472
  • Aug 7, 2008 3:56am Aug 7, 2008 3:56am
Quoting Td3
First time contributor, long time watcher.

I watch EURCHF a lot and it loves to play off of psychological s/r levels such as 1.6350, 1.6300, 1.6400, 1.6250, etc... You can usually catch a couple of pips off those levels a bunch of times before it breaks through. Do some back testing on a 5 minute chart and take a look.
Dear Td3

You make some very very interesting comments on the EUR/CHF pair.

I hadn't taken any interest in the EUR/CHF pair until you wrote this, but I've now gone and analysed the charts.

I attach my 1st thoughts on S+R levels on the EUR/CHF, on the 4-hr chart; I've included a JPG version of it as a quick review, and a BMP version which is much better quality.

As you say, it seems to have an uncanny propensity to seek out the so-called "psychological" levels: 0, 50, 100.

I note also how strongly it responds to the Weekly Fibo levels, show in Red on this chart - see how it bounces off the 61.8% Weekly Fibo level, for example.

I found it easy to see the S+R levels and have now added the EUR/CHF to my list of pairs to trade whenever good opportunities present themselves.

Happy to swap ideas on EUR/CHF trades, anytime.

Thanks again !

Best wishes, Loudoniii
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  • #2,473
  • Aug 7, 2008 4:03am Aug 7, 2008 4:03am
Quoting steveshutts
Have to see how the IRS on GBP is today but good levels to watch IMO:

Long: 2.0478-2.0496
Short: 2.0786-2.0804
Steve
Steve - Good call.

I have precisely the same levels on GBP/CHF, except that my Short could start a fraction earlier, @ 2.0782, to accomodate the 30 May candle upspike.

Also a possible intermediate S+R zone around 2.0657 - 2.0664, as I see it, although this has been hit once already, with a strong bounce-back.

If we catch the right turning points on this beast, some great PIPs to be made.

Thanks again - Loudoniii
  • #2,474
  • Aug 7, 2008 4:05am Aug 7, 2008 4:05am
Hi Guys,

Just a heads up on the EUR. The last trough of the down trend has been broken to the up side and we have a close above the magenta line @ 1.5444. This is an early warning sign that we may start an upside corrective move today. If price goes south after news today look for a short below 1.5395.
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  • #2,475
  • Aug 7, 2008 4:16am Aug 7, 2008 4:16am
Quoting rogerdoger
hi billy did you take the u/cad trade? or did you disregard that due to the falling oil prices.
No I'm still in it looking for a break of that 1.0450 level for continuation....right now its fading it. Initial target is about 50 pips lower at 1.0400. 1.0500 hold significance so it might get tapped yet but overall still short bias near-term. I sold again at a push higher so I have a little comfort level here but still monitoring it carefully in the event of any pushes today.
  • #2,476
  • Edited 6:39am Aug 7, 2008 4:20am | Edited 6:39am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Awesome call......by the way I was just reading and apparently there are a slew of option orders above 110.00 and maybe higher....but 110.00 looks to be a big area to get taken out......I just got enlightened on some new data from tonester today and Im loving it. Buy dips is the strategy.

Also in regards to EUR, there is apparenlty a rumor going around about a hawkish tone in the ECB statement tonight - the "overall" market consensus sees no change in rates with a mixed tone coming from Trechet, just listen in for that reaction.

Trechet needs to address rising oil and bad numbers recently - if the economy is in bad enough shape, no increase in rates seen near-term.

Hawkish = Initially targeting 1.5500
Not Hawkish = look for 1.5400 to get taken out down to the 1.5300 area

This is all coming from articles published through Oanda/Thompson Reuters - I think you can get access to them on a demo. They cover barrier option levels and stop order areas quite frequently - its very useful info.
Per these guys a "swiss banker" shorted at 1.5483 with a big order pushing price down; however, stops heavy up to 1.5495 and into the 55's, with the higher range 5510-5515 holding the heaviest weight.

So shorting around the 5500-15 level pre-ECB could work out well. 1.5500 is also a key barrier option level. Just a heads up. IFR Markets is the info provider.
  • #2,477
  • Aug 7, 2008 4:22am Aug 7, 2008 4:22am
Quoting Siam
Afternoon

Gbp/usd long @ 1.9360 -50

Not sure how bad the news could be but if it does get down there in the next couple of days there should be a few buy orders at this level IMHO.
Aaaaahhh the magic level we know so well now . Banks are recognizing strong support at the 1.9410 low by the way, also, and could be good for a trade......a move below it and this level is the next stop.
  • #2,478
  • Aug 7, 2008 4:27am Aug 7, 2008 4:27am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Guys,

Just a heads up on the EUR. The last trough of the down trend has been broken to the up side and we have a close above the magenta line @ 1.5444. This is an early warning sign that we may start an upside corrective move today. If price goes south after news today look for a short below 1.5395.
Yet another unnamed swiss bank went long EUR at 1.5414 targeting 1.5700 with hawkish rhetoric expecting to drive price up there. We're at the bottom of the channel, or close to it, that EUR is trading in. Would expect a lift up (bigger retracement than the ones weve been getting) from here but move lower still on the radar just in case.
  • #2,479
  • Aug 7, 2008 4:35am Aug 7, 2008 4:35am
Quoting CindyXXXX
USD/CHF scalp long from 557 - 552 maybe?
Look for a break/confirmed move/close below 1.0550 for continued downward movement targeting 1.0500.
  • #2,480
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:17am Aug 7, 2008 5:17am
Looking for a retest of broken TL and support in the 1.5440 area. This would result in a beautiful Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern with a profit target of around 1.5600.
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