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NZDUSD Discussion

  • #141
  • Aug 5, 2008 11:05pm Aug 5, 2008 11:05pm
Quoting Pirin
You guys expect from a land in which the government announced they may already be in a recession and the GDP is negative to enhance its currency value ?

Bullish : Monthly Fibo & Monthly Channel Bottom - both build a strong support
Bearish : Recession & Falling Interest Rates -> If we have another negative GDP that would mean technical recession and there is no support line on a chart that can hold such pressure

I'm targeting 0.6650 - 0.6700. Join the Short Side
Maybe, but first .7600 Btw, it's a great country, only 4 million people, and nzd dollars are limited. I agree it could fall more, but long-term the up trend is in tact. Even if it fell to .65
  • #142
  • Aug 5, 2008 11:26pm Aug 5, 2008 11:26pm
Quoting Clouds
Maybe, but first .7600 Btw, it's a great country, only 4 million people, and nzd dollars are limited. I agree it could fall more, but long-term the up trend is in tact. Even if it fell to .65
Agree. I have no doubt towards the long term trend. But a recession will surely cause an outflow in the capital markets and the floating currency will decline. I will be watching for a bottom at ~0.65 (or even 0.60) to buy long term.
  • #143
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:43am Aug 6, 2008 2:43am
Hey folks.

This is my first month trading live, and I just so happened to enter the NZD/USD LONG right before the rate cut. Needless to say, I'm sort of drowning in drawdown, and getting some invaluable trading experience to say the least

I got in at .7518, and my t/p is now .7520, but will be lowered as the rollover allows me to lower it in order to break even. I have made money hedging along the way, but the fact is, I'm still a newbie as far as hedging / emergency money management is concerned.

I'm just posting because from here on out I'll be monitoring this thread, and taking the general flow of it into consideration when making trades along the way. I'm happy that some of you seem to think that the trek back up to .7600 isn't impossible - that gives me some hope. I'm a patient man, and I'm not too overleveraged, so as long as it heads up there eventually I think I'll be ok.

What I'm really interested in now is finding good support / resistance numbers for this currency to help me get in and out of my hedge in order to minimize losses. I'm gonna really study this stuff in the near future, and I really look forward to hearing your thoughts.

If any of you have any advice or tips for me, I would greatly appreciate it, as I said this is my first live month and it's been a doozy! Happy trades!
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #144
  • Aug 6, 2008 3:09am Aug 6, 2008 3:09am
Quoting ddblue
Hey folks.

This is my first month trading live, and I just so happened to enter the NZD/USD LONG right before the rate cut. Needless to say, I'm sort of drowning in drawdown, and getting some invaluable trading experience to say the least

I got in at .7518, and my t/p is now .7520, but will be lowered as the rollover allows me to lower it in order to break even. I have made money hedging along the way, but the fact is, I'm still a newbie as far as hedging / emergency money management is concerned.

I'm just posting because from here on out I'll be monitoring this thread, and taking the general flow of it into consideration when making trades along the way. I'm happy that some of you seem to think that the trek back up to .7600 isn't impossible - that gives me some hope. I'm a patient man, and I'm not too overleveraged, so as long as it heads up there eventually I think I'll be ok.

What I'm really interested in now is finding good support / resistance numbers for this currency to help me get in and out of my hedge in order to minimize losses. I'm gonna really study this stuff in the near future, and I really look forward to hearing your thoughts.

If any of you have any advice or tips for me, I would greatly appreciate it, as I said this is my first live month and it's been a doozy! Happy trades!
Hi DDBlue, I am watching this pair and am looking to get long around 0.72-0.7150. Whenever you take a trade, you must pay attention to the news. If you are trading into a major news event, stay out and let the market settle down first. You'll almost always get a better entry. Do you have a plan in place in case the market does dip lower before heading up?
  • #145
  • Aug 6, 2008 3:48am Aug 6, 2008 3:48am
hi phoenix..... so what is ur prediction/analysis.....??? its going up or down ??
  • #146
  • Aug 6, 2008 5:38am Aug 6, 2008 5:38am
Quoting srekcah24
hi phoenix..... so what is ur prediction/analysis.....??? its going up or down ??
From the daily, I am a short fan. We will soon see.

Cheers
  • #147
  • Aug 6, 2008 6:58am Aug 6, 2008 6:58am
Broke a long term fib, kinda hoping its gonna come back up to form another pin on the daily, cos I'm long, anyone got an opinion on the NZD news later?
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #148
  • Aug 6, 2008 7:14am Aug 6, 2008 7:14am
Quoting nwsuccess
Hi DDBlue, I am watching this pair and am looking to get long around 0.72-0.7150. Whenever you take a trade, you must pay attention to the news. If you are trading into a major news event, stay out and let the market settle down first. You'll almost always get a better entry. Do you have a plan in place in case the market does dip lower before heading up?
My plan is just to hedge and wait for the dust to settle =-/ I'm not sure what else to do.

Also, about the news - yeah, that's a mistake I'll never make again.
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #149
  • Aug 6, 2008 11:42am Aug 6, 2008 11:42am
Quoting toyboy tramp
Broke a long term fib, kinda hoping its gonna come back up to form another pin on the daily, cos I'm long, anyone got an opinion on the NZD news later?

Lets see ... Employment Figures 3.8% forecast is aggresive in my mind. They cut rates last month and have forecasted additional rate cuts. I am almost certain they will cut rates yet again .25.

Bottom line this looks to me just as Risky as the Aussie .... All Technicals aside the impending additional rate cuts are almost a certainty. that will drive the price down despite the good news (if so)

Tonight will be a good trade if your on the right side. Im gonna hedge just before the release because if the numbers are bad then 68-69 will come with ease.

My 2 cents.
  • #150
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:01pm Aug 6, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting peaches
agreed.

we have a hammer above a weekly trendline, this one goes up IMHO.

I was defenitly wrong with this

But god gives us SL for this alternative.

after break of this major trendline, and this bullish dollar
it will go down more IMHO.

I marked my longterm targets.
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  • #151
  • Edited 5:18pm Aug 6, 2008 4:52pm | Edited 5:18pm
Bounce from fibo projection 161.8 which is 5th(or middle of 3rd) wave extension.
Now we are entering ABC correction stage (hope so) to test upper trendline.

Downfall will be contiue to target area around 0.65 or lower.
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  • #152
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:23am Aug 7, 2008 2:23am
coming from NZ i can say this much: The economic situation here continues to worsen. The official interest rate was lowered from 8.25% to 8%, and there is the ever-increasing possibility of further cuts by the RBNZ in coming months. The housing market is entering a massive slump after many years of exponential growth. The NZX is one of the worst performing stock markets - there has even been recent speculation in the national newspapers that it may simply be joined with the ASX (Australia) because of its continued poor performance. A strong NZD is widely considered detrimental to the nations economy.
  • #153
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:46am Aug 7, 2008 2:46am
Well I closed my long for a staggering loss. Lesson learned.
I am now short NZD/USD from .7188. I have a modest t/p, and a wide s/l, so hopefully I made the right decision.
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #154
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:48am Aug 7, 2008 2:48am
Quoting ddblue
Well I closed my long for a staggering loss. Lesson learned.
I am now short NZD/USD from .7188. I have a modest t/p, and a wide s/l, so hopefully I made the right decision.
sucks man, but oh well. I guess its always easier to trade the currency of the country you live in. I think your trade is going to prove to be a good long-term one.
  • #155
  • Aug 7, 2008 3:04am Aug 7, 2008 3:04am
Quoting ddblue
Well I closed my long for a staggering loss. Lesson learned.
I am now short NZD/USD from .7188. I have a modest t/p, and a wide s/l, so hopefully I made the right decision.
Why did you close your long now and take a new short position now? I hate to say it but you most likely just closed out near the low and sold into the hole. I wouldn't let your short position hold very much heat if it starts to head north.
  • #156
  • Aug 7, 2008 7:21am Aug 7, 2008 7:21am
I was wrong on this
Yesterday bounce was only good news influence wchich was treated like very good opportunity to add more short position.
There will be no correction at all just straight down to the hell.
  • #157
  • Aug 7, 2008 11:06pm Aug 7, 2008 11:06pm
Quoting ddblue
Well I closed my long for a staggering loss. Lesson learned.
I am now short NZD/USD from .7188. I have a modest t/p, and a wide s/l, so hopefully I made the right decision.
It was the right decision Welcome on the short side
  • #158
  • Aug 7, 2008 11:12pm Aug 7, 2008 11:12pm
Approaching Monthly TL, and notice how much it respected .60, and .80 and now we are at .70
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  • #159
  • Edited Aug 8, 2008 2:35am Aug 7, 2008 11:24pm | Edited Aug 8, 2008 2:35am
Quoting Clouds
Approaching Monthly TL, and notice how much it respected .60, and .80 and now we are at .70
And not only. NZD/USD is also very fibo-friendly. However i closed most of my shorts now, because it has been some 650 pips drop, without having a decent retrace... so i expect that, and if it happens i will short it again. My target for the rest opened positions is 0.6820.
  • #160
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:39am Aug 8, 2008 5:39am
Shorts hit their t/p. Not quite enough to recoup the loss I took from the long, but I'm gonna keep at it.

So what is everybody doing now? Waiting for retrace, then going short again?
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
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