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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #441
  • Feb 11, 2007 3:37pm Feb 11, 2007 3:37pm
Quoting turk87
How does the GDP/USD look to everyone?
Personally, I think it's too early to tell. It could go up a little and then down to form the right shoulder(of inverted Head&Shoulder pattern) on MACD. Any thoughts?
  • #442
  • Feb 11, 2007 3:55pm Feb 11, 2007 3:55pm
12"00 GMT

That is my feeling too for what it's worth. I am waiting to see if the other shoulder appears.


Quoting Tw0eleven
Personally, I think it's too early to tell. It could go up a little and then down to form the right shoulder(of inverted Head&Shoulder pattern) on MACD. Any thoughts?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #443
  • Feb 11, 2007 4:13pm Feb 11, 2007 4:13pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Personally, I think it's too early to tell. It could go up a little and then down to form the right shoulder(of inverted Head&Shoulder pattern) on MACD. Any thoughts?
looks like it is in the making. Cable might be testing 365SMA level at this moment - only 10 pips apart. I would wait for the close of this new candle and see what happens.
  • #444
  • Feb 11, 2007 4:29pm Feb 11, 2007 4:29pm
Looks like it retraced to the 8EMA. Perhaps back down to the 365 and if that holds I think a Long trade is on the table. But only time will tell!!! Time to be patient.
  • #445
  • Edited 5:45pm Feb 11, 2007 4:42pm | Edited 5:45pm
when I look at how many critical support levels of the cable were breached within the last week - 89, 200 and 365, I want to take sides with the strongest when MACD confirms it.

ATTENTION: Cable is forming a straight line right now on the MACD. There is Phillip's warning about this sign in post 122. We probably should wait for the close of this candle. I would not be able to wait more - God of Sleep will want me.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=14630&page=9
  • #446
  • Feb 11, 2007 4:46pm Feb 11, 2007 4:46pm
Anyone else looking at the EUR/USD? MACD starting to show a Buy signal. Also looks like price is being supported buy the 200, 21 and 8 ma's. Anyone see the same or something else?
  • #447
  • Edited 5:52pm Feb 11, 2007 5:41pm | Edited 5:52pm
I took it alreay to try a zero bounce since I also saw the support forming. We'll see how it plays out. down a few pips now.... but expecting to see that support and bounce up again.

GBP/USD - Looks like it may make it to the 365 again. If that happens, and another shoulder forms. That would be a very high probability trade no?

Quoting Tw0eleven
Anyone else looking at the EUR/USD? MACD starting to show a Buy signal. Also looks like price is being supported buy the 200, 21 and 8 ma's. Anyone see the same or something else?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #448
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:05pm Feb 11, 2007 6:05pm
Quoting DireXiv
I took it alreay to try a zero bounce since I also saw the support forming. We'll see how it plays out. down a few pips now.... but expecting to see that support and bounce up again.

GBP/USD - Looks like it may make it to the 365 again. If that happens, and another shoulder forms. That would be a very high probability trade no?
I will take it as high probability short trade.
  • #449
  • Feb 11, 2007 7:56pm Feb 11, 2007 7:56pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Anyone else looking at the EUR/USD? MACD starting to show a Buy signal. Also looks like price is being supported buy the 200, 21 and 8 ma's. Anyone see the same or something else?
I am waiting for the next candle close for euro or subsequent one (more likely). It seems euro is on 200 SMA support now but this close gave a flat (indecisive) line on my MACD chart.
  • #450
  • Feb 11, 2007 9:57pm Feb 11, 2007 9:57pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Look at this uptrend and see how many signals were given and why the ones marked with a puprle dot was not made. Remember the rule is that when the price goes through the 89SMA and it pulls back to the 21EMA and then continue the trend it is normally trending for some time. If a counter trend trade is made the profit target is around the 21EMA. Dont work on the exact pip as it sometimes does not goes exactly to the 21EMA. Give a couple of pips for slippage.

The green rectangle is the open of the candle next to the signal candle.
Pillip,
With this chart, you have answered my repeated question "Why some trades are taken and some other are not?". You taught me (in this chart) how to view MACD signals in conjunction with the position of the price with respect to 9 MA, 21 MA and 8 MA. It is a very signifiant piece of knowledge for me. Thank you.
You have also answered my request to give white background to charts to save us printing ink. Thanks again

I have a few questions posted here and in the 5-minute thread, if you find time please respond. I appreciate it very much.
Thanks again.
-Chandra
  • #451
  • Feb 12, 2007 3:20am Feb 12, 2007 3:20am
Quoting tamkras
since euro is caught again between two SMA's - 89 & 200, let me share my thoughts on the possible continuation scenarios.

Scenario 1:

This is bearish indicator because price did not find support @ 200SMA but was pushed under it. Four consecutive candles could not drive it up enough. We might expect bounce from this resistance line towards 89SMA.

Scenario 2:

This is incomplete head-and-shoulders pattern where price may pull out slightly again above 200SMA towards 1.3025 but then retrace sharply to the level of 1.2935-45. Two previous heads bounced (sorry for the unintended pun!) from 365SMA. This head failed to reach 365SMA and we may see further decline. Again, bearish indicator.

Scenario 3:

Last week was a busted breakout towards 365SMA. Magical level 1.3050 is still intact with all the news hype around euro. All busted patterns are fairly reliable. Again, bearish signal.

These are just the thoughts and only the market (read MACD strategy) will point us to the right direction next week. Any ideas on what the future of euro holds for us?
Scenario 2 is completed.
  • #452
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:49am Feb 12, 2007 4:49am
Quoting tamkras
Scenario 2 is completed.
Excellent prediction, Tamkras, If i may ask in your scenerio 2, how did you arrive at 1.2937 - 1.2945? Did you use the previous low of the 21 EMa? This is where i has trouble setting TP. Thanks Tamkras

O,Zeeke
  • #453
  • Feb 12, 2007 5:13am Feb 12, 2007 5:13am
Quoting O'Zeeke
Excellent prediction, Tamkras, If i may ask in your scenerio 2, how did you arrive at 1.2937 - 1.2945? Did you use the previous low of the 21 EMa? This is where i has trouble setting TP. Thanks Tamkras

O,Zeeke
thanks, O,Zeeke. we all are trying for the best of Phillip's MACD strategy. If you read my previous posts, my analysis was based on mere price action last week and Phillip's lessons on critical SMA's 1.2937-1.2945 was arrived by drawing a support line from the previous two lows of the head/shoulders. Quite simple.

Last night I took a high probability short trade on cable as I confirmed 2 posts before. 72 pips gain. I will post a trade later to confirm it.
  • #454
  • Feb 12, 2007 5:29am Feb 12, 2007 5:29am
Quoting tamkras
thanks, O,Zeeke. we all are trying for the best of Phillip's MACD strategy. If you read my previous posts, my analysis was based on mere price action last week and Phillip's lessons on critical SMA's 1.2937-1.2945 was arrived by drawing a support line from the previous two lows of the head/shoulders. Quite simple.

Last night I took a high probability short trade on cable as I confirmed 2 posts before. 72 pips gain. I will post a trade later to confirm it.
Nice call Tamkras! I see exactly how that trade unfolded. Unfortunately I sleep during the London session due to my time zone and wasn't able to trade. Looking ahead, any ideas what we can look for now? Of course we need to wait for confirmation...but I'm seeing a that price bounced off a trendline down around 1.2940 and price is well below the MA's. So would I be correct in thinking that price will tend to go back to re-test the MA's? Possibly the 1.2980 to 1.3000 area? That's also if we get a "rounded bottom" on the MACD for a signal! Anyone else have any comments?
  • #455
  • Feb 12, 2007 5:41am Feb 12, 2007 5:41am
13:00 GMt

That is exactly what I'm seeing. I actually put in a small 'test" trade a little bit ago, and it's going well.



Quoting Tw0eleven
Nice call Tamkras! I see exactly how that trade unfolded. Unfortunately I sleep during the London session due to my time zone and wasn't able to trade. Looking ahead, any ideas what we can look for now? Of course we need to wait for confirmation...but I'm seeing a that price bounced off a trendline down around 1.2940 and price is well below the MA's. So would I be correct in thinking that price will tend to go back to re-test the MA's? Possibly the 1.2980 to 1.3000 area? That's also if we get a "rounded bottom" on the MACD for a signal! Anyone else have any comments?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #456
  • Feb 12, 2007 5:51am Feb 12, 2007 5:51am
Quoting DireXiv
13:00 GMt

That is exactly what I'm seeing. I actually put in a small 'test" trade a little bit ago, and it's going well.

I'm doing the same thing on a demo account. Just to see how it goes. I'm liking the inverted Head&Shoulders pattern forming on the MACD of the GBP/USD pair too. Just need to wait for confirmation.
  • #457
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:09am Feb 12, 2007 7:09am
The MACD made a run towards zero and then turn up giving a signal for long.
1. Signal was turnaround above zero
2. Direction = long
3. Where is resistance = ±20 pips away to trendline
4. Stoploss to below 200SMA or 1.3000 = ± 20 pips
5. R:R OK
6. Go long with profit target trendline = 15-20 pips
7. Not very much room to trendline so set breakeven after 10+ pips.


That would have been my way


The Gbp I said that it broke through the 89SMA and pulled back to the 21EMA so a trend is on. The scenario was a pullback to the 21EMA and then trend continue. Unfortenately the down move was sudden. Did not give MACD signal.
Attached Image
  • #458
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:16am Feb 12, 2007 7:16am
Thanks for the feedback Phillip. That's exactly what I did and pulled out 13 pips before major downtrend. So, it was a little dangerous, but setup properly it worked out!



Quoting Phillip Nel
The MACD made a run towards zero and then turn up giving a signal for long.
1. Signal was turnaround above zero
2. Direction = long
3. Where is resistance = ±20 pips away to trendline
4. Stoploss to below 200SMA or 1.3000 = ± 20 pips
5. R:R OK
6. Go long with profit target trendline = 15-20 pips
7. Not very much room to trendline so set breakeven after 10+ pips.


That would have been my way


The Gbp I said that it broke through the 89SMA and pulled back to the 21EMA so a trend is on. The scenario was a pullback to the 21EMA and then trend continue. Unfortenately the down move was sudden. Did not give MACD signal.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #459
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:01am Feb 12, 2007 8:01am
Quoting DireXiv
Thanks for the feedback Phillip. That's exactly what I did and pulled out 13 pips before major downtrend. So, it was a little dangerous, but setup properly it worked out!

Well done. It was not that dangerous as you could have set your stoploss just below 200SMA at around 15 pips. If it broke through the trendline up you would have been in for a ride. It is not just to make 10-15 pips but to have an oppertunity should it break through. At least you had a chance if it did.
  • #460
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:02am Feb 12, 2007 8:02am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Nice call Tamkras! I see exactly how that trade unfolded. Unfortunately I sleep during the London session due to my time zone and wasn't able to trade. Looking ahead, any ideas what we can look for now? Of course we need to wait for confirmation...but I'm seeing a that price bounced off a trendline down around 1.2940 and price is well below the MA's. So would I be correct in thinking that price will tend to go back to re-test the MA's? Possibly the 1.2980 to 1.3000 area? That's also if we get a "rounded bottom" on the MACD for a signal! Anyone else have any comments?
Hi Tw0eleven, we shall need to see some form of bulls' consolidation to make a long call. Let me get back to you with what I think later day. Just busy right now...
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