1) I never trade between 24th december and 03 th january NEVER whatever the marker specially between 24 and 31th december.
This is time for adjustement of countries balance and window dressing and no rules seems to exist anymore.
So your first 3 trades still remaining today will have never take place.
But let us imagine this happen starting after the 04th of january here are the calculations and we pass the period with acceptable but big DD.
To make things understandable i did same as you with trade on eur/chf but a ratio 1/1.5 mio on the paires eur/usd and usd/chf for the swap.
Note that i will not take into account speed of trend neither end of day as i explained in this thread to keep a conservative approach . So we are in the worst case scenario that i will not managed the way i do for the purpose of this interessant study.
28th 12 07 Long 166.21 -0.25 lot 1
28 12 07 long 165.79 -0.25 lot 2
31 12 07 long 165.37 -0.25 lot 3
02nd 01 08 long 164.54 -0.50 lot 4
04 01 08 long 163.71 -0.50%lot 5
Lot 5 out at 16412 ( entry price +0.25%) remain 4 lots profit 41pips
15th 01 08 long 162.07 -1% lot 5 again
21th 01 08 long 160.45 -1% lot 6
Having 6 lots and becoming dangerous the exit rule changes . The 2 last lots ( 6 and 5) will be exit at their average price +0.25% ( 160.45+162.07)/2*100.25%= 161.66
exit at 161.66 profit 80pips remain 4 lots
02 nd 03 08 long 157.24 -2% ( new rule after having 6 lots at one moment) lot 5 again
out lot 5 at +1% which is 15881, we only hit 15879 and went down. In real i will have cut at around 15870 after target missed.
profit 146 pips remain 4lots
17th 03 08 long 15409 -2% lot 05 again
We hit this day 153.26 which is the lowest point of the 28th12/07 till today.
At this point we have 5 lots long with
lot 1 = loss of 1295 pips
lot 2 = los of 1253 pips
lot 3= loss of 1211 pip s
lot 4= loss of 1128 pips
lot 5 = loss of 83 pips
same day we close the lot 5 at 155.63 ( +1%) with +154 pips.
So the max dd is 1295+1253+1211+1128+83=4970pips -41-80-146 =
4703 pips = close to 47030 usd 47% of the account
swap interest with a 1/1.5 ratios and my leverage of *2.5 to start building a position with 100k you will have 1 lot = 166k eur/usd vs 250k usd/chf
this represents 15 usd interest per day per lot
so we have as of 17th 03 08 458 pips of interests so that the max dd becomes 4245 pips ( 42%)
That is big but bearable
As of today the position is winning taking into account 5 more months of interests and that the price is at 163
Conclusion ; If this kind of amazing trend takes place the DD can be huge and not supportable if you are over leveraged.
Dont forget that at the end of the year we are supposed to have a profit so the -42% is not really 42% of the starting capital .
You can of course decide to put a stop loss if you loose for exemple 20% of your K on a serie of trades against a trend.
THis was the worst case scenario, In real this kind of trend should be managed differently waiting more to go in ( i can see some long red candles triggering an entry, i will have waited of course more than 0.25 or 0.50)
And you need to be conservative with the end of day stuff i explained.
This trend i was in but started after the 04th and i managed it well with a very bearable DD.
If this trend occurs on the short side, the interests are against you so i will cut my positions after 2 weeks ( 10 trading days) whatever the result and start again building a position.
This is time for adjustement of countries balance and window dressing and no rules seems to exist anymore.
So your first 3 trades still remaining today will have never take place.
But let us imagine this happen starting after the 04th of january here are the calculations and we pass the period with acceptable but big DD.
To make things understandable i did same as you with trade on eur/chf but a ratio 1/1.5 mio on the paires eur/usd and usd/chf for the swap.
Note that i will not take into account speed of trend neither end of day as i explained in this thread to keep a conservative approach . So we are in the worst case scenario that i will not managed the way i do for the purpose of this interessant study.
28th 12 07 Long 166.21 -0.25 lot 1
28 12 07 long 165.79 -0.25 lot 2
31 12 07 long 165.37 -0.25 lot 3
02nd 01 08 long 164.54 -0.50 lot 4
04 01 08 long 163.71 -0.50%lot 5
Lot 5 out at 16412 ( entry price +0.25%) remain 4 lots profit 41pips
15th 01 08 long 162.07 -1% lot 5 again
21th 01 08 long 160.45 -1% lot 6
Having 6 lots and becoming dangerous the exit rule changes . The 2 last lots ( 6 and 5) will be exit at their average price +0.25% ( 160.45+162.07)/2*100.25%= 161.66
exit at 161.66 profit 80pips remain 4 lots
02 nd 03 08 long 157.24 -2% ( new rule after having 6 lots at one moment) lot 5 again
out lot 5 at +1% which is 15881, we only hit 15879 and went down. In real i will have cut at around 15870 after target missed.
profit 146 pips remain 4lots
17th 03 08 long 15409 -2% lot 05 again
We hit this day 153.26 which is the lowest point of the 28th12/07 till today.
At this point we have 5 lots long with
lot 1 = loss of 1295 pips
lot 2 = los of 1253 pips
lot 3= loss of 1211 pip s
lot 4= loss of 1128 pips
lot 5 = loss of 83 pips
same day we close the lot 5 at 155.63 ( +1%) with +154 pips.
So the max dd is 1295+1253+1211+1128+83=4970pips -41-80-146 =
4703 pips = close to 47030 usd 47% of the account
swap interest with a 1/1.5 ratios and my leverage of *2.5 to start building a position with 100k you will have 1 lot = 166k eur/usd vs 250k usd/chf
this represents 15 usd interest per day per lot
so we have as of 17th 03 08 458 pips of interests so that the max dd becomes 4245 pips ( 42%)
That is big but bearable
As of today the position is winning taking into account 5 more months of interests and that the price is at 163
Conclusion ; If this kind of amazing trend takes place the DD can be huge and not supportable if you are over leveraged.
Dont forget that at the end of the year we are supposed to have a profit so the -42% is not really 42% of the starting capital .
You can of course decide to put a stop loss if you loose for exemple 20% of your K on a serie of trades against a trend.
THis was the worst case scenario, In real this kind of trend should be managed differently waiting more to go in ( i can see some long red candles triggering an entry, i will have waited of course more than 0.25 or 0.50)
And you need to be conservative with the end of day stuff i explained.
This trend i was in but started after the 04th and i managed it well with a very bearable DD.
If this trend occurs on the short side, the interests are against you so i will cut my positions after 2 weeks ( 10 trading days) whatever the result and start again building a position.