Dislikedexcept water. When farmers realise that they'll never be able to irrigate a desert, that will eventually change.Ignored
4 odd % inflation is nothing. India's 9 odd % is what you would call over-inflated.
We don't have a bad housing crisis, my construction company is doing quite well and has not dropped off with new home starts in over 8 years. Higher interest rates are what's hurting our industry.
I agree with Neal and then some, US has not hit rock bottom yet. We are in relatively good shape for a piss ant country with a fly fart economy.
The bigger they are, the harder they fall
Economies that are now on the precipice of rate cuts are unwinding. This will have a positive effect for the aus economy as our terms of trade improve.
In short (no pun intended) it is a great trading opportunity and one that will continue for the short to medium term.
- #386
- Aug 5, 2008 4:44am Aug 5, 2008 4:44am
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Nudist | 1,098 Posts
What you've said is very true in a macro sense. However, the here and now is that the carry is dead and unwinding rapidly. And it is not limited to AUD, GBP has been in free fall.
Economies that are now on the precipice of rate cuts are unwinding. This will have a positive effect for the aus economy as our terms of trade improve.
In short (no pun intended) it is a great trading opportunity and one that will continue for the short to medium term.
The more it drops, the more I pocket when I bring the funds back home
It is actually painful to see it so high at the moment.
This is why I rarely trade this pair. I am too bias for it to sink like the titanic.
- #387
- Aug 5, 2008 4:49am Aug 5, 2008 4:49am
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Nudist | 1,098 Posts
but if the fed stumbles which i believe it will investors will see the reality that the fed can not raise rates anytime soon. the parity mark is a major phychological level and it's possible that once broken the aud could surge much higher than it especially with the fed in a similar condition of deflation that happened in japan which they still haven't recovered from. the more the fed tries to interviene with the corporations that are going under the more debt it will create for Americans whose spending is already crimped.
as it is the price each american has to pay is 30k to pay off the national debt.
http://www.citizenceo.com/index.php/...national-debt/
When the average person has that much debt with very little promise of earnings growth it kills an economy probably for decades to come.
there are 3 times as many people in China that need goods from Australia. you tell me who is going to be the beneficiary with those huge capital flows and a trade surplus.
Yes, that is the other side of the coin that can't be ignored. I do believe that we'll see parity and possibly beyond before I see my 0.50 again
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
