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  • #2,381
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:26pm Jul 31, 2008 1:26pm
Hey Guys,

Spotted another divergence. This time on USDCAD monthly.

I guess divergences are easier to be spotted under longer TFs.

Each day I find my self transfering the knowledge observed in textbooks to our daily applied "science".

I see that you, Aediaz, is experiencing new ideas and "testing" them. I am trying the same, only with different tools.

Could you elaborate on the works of the MA you have applied to your charts? How did you come to experiment them? What's the "idea" behind them.

I find it so COOL that we exchange knowledge and ideas everyone being in a different part of the World? Have u though about this already!?!?! So cool!!

Best,
JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_cad_mn_31_07_2008_divergence.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #2,382
  • Jul 31, 2008 2:10pm Jul 31, 2008 2:10pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hi Aediaz,

Thanks for the reply.

Maybe I am not the only one making this "mistake":

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1168

Longer TFs provide more pips for those who are able to trade them. This could be very possible in a very, very long run.

That's not my case. I only trade intra-day.

I am taking this example for educational purposes only.

I am not saying that this is a mistake or not. I am just saying it's my observation.

Fact of matter, I have made a few pips already out of that break. That's what counts for me at the end of the day.

Only time will tell if it's indeed a mistake or not.

Cheers.
JP.
Hi JP. "will work no matter what". I'm amazed to see such an experienced trader use those words. But I guess, with he's experience, he understand something I don't. That's the fun part with trading, it's always new stuff to learn

I must admit that nothing would be better if price hit that area within some months over even weeks. Might keep an tight eye to oil as well ! A weekly close at this area (or even lower) would be 1 pip closer, that's for sure.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,383
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:09am Aug 1, 2008 9:09am
Quoting aediaz1
Hi JP. "will work no matter what". I'm amazed to see such an experienced trader use those words. But I guess, with he's experience, he understand something I don't. That's the fun part with trading, it's always new stuff to learn

I must admit that nothing would be better if price hit that area within some months over even weeks. Might keep an tight eye to oil as well ! A weekly close at this area (or even lower) would be 1 pip closer, that's for sure.
Indeed, I made a huge mistake in target observation. I believed it had to do with possible Fib levels. I was very wrong.

After further research and being in touch with Igrok, I understand now why/how he finds these target levels.

Two examples below.

More on this later on...

Cheers.

JP.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_usd_mn_01_08_2008_divergence_target_valley.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_usd_wk_01_08_2008_divergence_target_valley.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #2,384
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:26pm Aug 1, 2008 1:26pm
Hi Guy's
Seems DownFall start's as this pair already breaks the supportline...Let's see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.usd weekly.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #2,385
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:39pm Aug 1, 2008 10:39pm
I am 159 pages late and finally found the thread...here have alot of expert chartist here and I forsee I can learn alot from you guys....

Here I attached my AUD/USD,,,pls correct me if i assume anything wrongly....

PA view: It was such a bearish engulfing signal.
The trend is Down and I expect to lil bit rebound in coming week,,,which I will try to add my short more...or if the fall persist..I will add my short once 0.925x breaks....

Any suggestion??
sonic
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.PNG Size: 23 KB
  • #2,386
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:13am Aug 2, 2008 9:13am
Quoting sonicdeejay
I am 159 pages late and finally found the thread...here have alot of expert chartist here and I forsee I can learn alot from you guys....

Here I attached my AUD/USD,,,pls correct me if i assume anything wrongly....

PA view: It was such a bearish engulfing signal.
The trend is Down and I expect to lil bit rebound in coming week,,,which I will try to add my short more...or if the fall persist..I will add my short once 0.925x breaks....

Any suggestion??
sonic

Hey Sonic,

Nice to see ya around.

Like I had posted above and earlier this week, AUDUSD presented an eminent divergence spotted using MACD on the weekly chart.

As you can see at the attached chart, it's my personal belief, after doing some thorough research on divergences, that price is well headed towards 0.8513.

I had a support (@weekly chart) around the 0.9380 area. I personally added another short below that level with an SL above it.

It was a nice break indeed.

Hope you keep posting around.

Cheers,
JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_usd_wk_01_08_2008_divergence_target_valley.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #2,387
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:36am Aug 2, 2008 9:36am
Quote
JP; I see that daily TL's is about to be broken too. But we shall not forget that price made an fake breakout. Brian Marber call TL broken (in fx) when price have made 3 closing-bar 1% below/above a TL.


Hey Aediaz,

I knew I had read that somewhere before.

I read that on John J Murphy's book "Technical Analysis of The Financial Markets". Only that he states that for longer term trendlines (ie above daily) he states that a 3% should confirm it. For shorter terms, he says that 1% would do it. Also, he says that this rule is not "ideal" for all the markets.

But come to think about it, you can miss a whole lot on it if you follow the 3% rule.

Example: If gold prices break a major up trendline at $400.00, prices would have to close below that line by 3% In this case, price would have to close $12.00 below the break level. Therefore we would only have a confirmation @ $388.00. So we possibly have missed avery $ in between 1.00-12.00....

On the other hand, another rule/filter would be the time filter. By that, Murphy means that in case of the Daily TF or the weekly TF, once price has closed two consecutive days below the break, price level, than it's a valid break.

So I guess that we have to adapt these ideas to intra-day trading.

I personally would combine the 1% rule with some timing filter. For adapting time filter to hourly charts, require some more research that would involve some level of statistics.

Hopes the above text makes sense to you.

Best,
JP.
  • #2,388
  • Aug 4, 2008 2:37pm Aug 4, 2008 2:37pm
Quoting Umairs2004
Hi Guy's
Seems DownFall start's as this pair already breaks the supportline...Let's see...
Hi Umairs !

Yeah, a lot of talk about this pair even. Had an healthy discussion with JP which continued in another thread (Igrok's cave) also. But with all the news we're facing this week, its hard to tell what's next. No signs of bulls so far.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,389
  • Aug 4, 2008 2:39pm Aug 4, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
I am 159 pages late and finally found the thread...here have alot of expert chartist here and I forsee I can learn alot from you guys....

Here I attached my AUD/USD,,,pls correct me if i assume anything wrongly....

PA view: It was such a bearish engulfing signal.
The trend is Down and I expect to lil bit rebound in coming week,,,which I will try to add my short more...or if the fall persist..I will add my short once 0.925x breaks....

Any suggestion??
sonic
Continue to post your charts, we are all here to learn
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,390
  • Aug 4, 2008 2:51pm Aug 4, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hey Aediaz,

I knew I had read that somewhere before.

I read that on John J Murphy's book "Technical Analysis of The Financial Markets". Only that he states that for longer term trendlines (ie above daily) he states that a 3% should confirm it. For shorter terms, he says that 1% would do it. Also, he says that this rule is not "ideal" for all the markets.

But come to think about it, you can miss a whole lot on it if you follow the 3% rule.

Example: If gold prices break a major up trendline at $400.00, prices would have to close below that line by 3% In this case, price would have to close $12.00 below the break level. Therefore we would only have a confirmation @ $388.00. So we possibly have missed avery $ in between 1.00-12.00....

On the other hand, another rule/filter would be the time filter. By that, Murphy means that in case of the Daily TF or the weekly TF, once price has closed two consecutive days below the break, price level, than it's a valid break.

So I guess that we have to adapt these ideas to intra-day trading.

I personally would combine the 1% rule with some timing filter. For adapting time filter to hourly charts, require some more research that would involve some level of statistics.

Hopes the above text makes sense to you.

Best,
JP.
Hi, Brian Marber read it from a book with almost the same title, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. He called it the Chartist's Bible but it didn't cover FX, so the 1% rule did Marber applied himself into this market.

My research is limited compared to Marbers, of course, but those few I have done, it seems like price (sometimes to the pip) will pull back (if its a fake breakout) 1% from the breakout-level.

If he have traded this way for 51 years, I found it worthy an small research which I'm doing right now. As fun as trading if you ask me Searching, trying, failing, improving and then sucess ! Although this is he's way, I'm not adopting anything until it fits me very well, too.


Regarding eur/chf, if someone remember that chart. I'm still long and I'm looking to add more around 1.6400. I just hope those news don't screw this beautiful technical trade.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,391
  • Aug 4, 2008 3:49pm Aug 4, 2008 3:49pm
Quoting aediaz1
Hi, Brian Marber read it from a book with almost the same title, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. He called it the Chartist's Bible but it didn't cover FX, so the 1% rule did Marber applied himself into this market.

My research is limited compared to Marbers, of course, but those few I have done, it seems like price (sometimes to the pip) will pull back (if its a fake breakout) 1% from the breakout-level.

If he have traded this way for 51 years, I found it worthy an small research which I'm doing right now. As fun as trading if you ask me Searching, trying, failing, improving and then sucess ! Although this is he's way, I'm not adopting anything until it fits me very well, too.


Regarding eur/chf, if someone remember that chart. I'm still long and I'm looking to add more around 1.6400. I just hope those news don't screw this beautiful technical trade.

I am doing some research on that too. So far, the combination of the 1% rule + time confirmation (two daily closes) has worked terrific for longer TFs.

Now, for lower TFs, I am doing some research as well. If anyone find something about this (breakout filters % + time), regarding lower TFs, please publish it here. I am doing my own experiments on that too.

Regarding your trade, I have not forgotten.

Here is the daily chart for it. I see what you mean about going long around 1.6400.

Nice trade by the way!!

Cheers,

JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_chf_d1_04_08_2008_flag_tl_res.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,392
  • Aug 4, 2008 5:00pm Aug 4, 2008 5:00pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
I am doing some research on that too. So far, the combination of the 1% rule + time confirmation (two daily closes) has worked terrific for longer TFs.

Now, for lower TFs, I am doing some research as well. If anyone find something about this (breakout filters % + time), regarding lower TFs, please publish it here. I am doing my own experiments on that too.

Regarding your trade, I have not forgotten.

Here is the daily chart for it. I see what you mean about going long around 1.6400.

Nice trade by the way!!



Cheers,

JP.
Nice, I just love discussions like this, sharing different research. Keep up the good work, JP. Too bad Marber didn't trade intraday, that would provide us with some free knowledge. Sentence of a real free-loader? lol

Cheers, time will tell regarding that trade but so far it have worked out great. I will hold it as long as I have the same confidence as I have now.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,393
  • Aug 5, 2008 1:12am Aug 5, 2008 1:12am
what do you think...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #2,394
  • Aug 5, 2008 10:44am Aug 5, 2008 10:44am
Meanwhile...

That divrgence on AUSSIE... Price keeps free falling.

I am sorry to say this, but I am in for a real PIP frenzy riding with it south.

I believe Igrok wasn't wrong after all...

Cheers,

JP.
  • #2,395
  • Aug 5, 2008 11:44am Aug 5, 2008 11:44am
Absolutely. That discussion made me realize how big potential that trade had/still have.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,396
  • Aug 5, 2008 11:46am Aug 5, 2008 11:46am
Quick look on usd/cad. Shall we see a new trend here ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.jpg Size: 103 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,397
  • Aug 5, 2008 11:56am Aug 5, 2008 11:56am
Quoting aediaz1
Hi Umairs !

Yeah, a lot of talk about this pair even. Had an healthy discussion with JP which continued in another thread (Igrok's cave) also. But with all the news we're facing this week, its hard to tell what's next. No signs of bulls so far.
Hammm...
Well See it's weekly chart, So Far Aud/Usd already drops for +150 Pip's since from the the start of this week and same as i was expecting... Let's see what will happened Next...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.usd weekly2.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #2,398
  • Aug 5, 2008 12:00pm Aug 5, 2008 12:00pm
Hey Aediaz I Just noticed your thread got, Infact our thread got 5-Star rating ...Many Cong. Specially to you For that Buddy...
  • #2,399
  • Aug 5, 2008 12:53pm Aug 5, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting aediaz1
Quick look on usd/cad. Shall we see a new trend here ?
Hi Aediaz,

USDCAD was another of those divergences I had previously posted here.

Actually 3 divergences caught my attention: aussie, cable and loonie.

I have been long on loonie since the triangle break.

Also being short on cable and aussie too. I am keeping an eye for a potential break on cable to the downside perhaps targeting 1.70 or so.

Cheers,
JP.
  • #2,400
  • Edited 8:59pm Aug 5, 2008 6:40pm | Edited 8:59pm
I see a consolidation pattern on EURCHF H4 right now. Not sure if it's a desc. channel or a desc. broadening triangle.

Price is "trapped" between support and resistance.

Price failed to reach the UTL of the asc. channel which always is a strong indication of a correction/trend change.

I might be observing a divergence on H4 and another possibly developing on daily.

If price fails to reach the LTL of this desc. formation, than it's just a consolidation which indicates trend continuation. Kind of doubtful right now.

In other words, indication of a reversal (diverence) X continuation (consolidation pattern).

Notice how price bounced of from a desc. tentative tendline observed on daily.

I am not very sure about this one... kind of undecided?????

Potential down trend/correction target is 1.6225.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_chf_h4_05_08_2008_desc_channel_flag.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_chf_d1_05_08_2008_down_trendline.gif Size: 20 KB
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