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AUD/USD

  • #261
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:46pm Aug 3, 2008 9:46pm
Quoting 5ysfx
Probably you are comparing bad trendlines.
Check my chart

I see you failed to add a trade acceleration trendline, which pretty much is a more vertical trendline you are missing on your drawing and which makes up for that asc. channel. Whenever a commodity/pair have an acceleration trendline, the greater the odds of a break down. This is just what happened to OIL and Aussie.

Your trendline that you added looks to me as a SPEEDLINE. You add a second SPEEDLINE, you get the minimum target one is looking for.

One more thing, I don't see any basis for the desc. channel you have drawn other than the S/Rs involved that could "hold" price for a while.

I observe that you enjoy the EW theory very much. I just recommend that you be very carefull and know exactly what you are doing.

Like I said before, price doesn't always return to "check" back at the broken line.
  • #262
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:55pm Aug 3, 2008 9:55pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
I see you failed to add a trade acceleration trendline, which pretty much is a more vertical trendline you are missing on your drawing and which makes up for that asc. channel. Whenever a commodity/pair have an acceleration trendline, the greater the odds of a break down. This is just what happened to OIL and Aussie.

Your trendline that you added looks to me as a SPEEDLINE. You add a second SPEEDLINE, you get the minimum target one is looking for.

One more thing, I don't see any basis for the desc. channel you have draw other than the S/Rs involved that could "hold" price for a while.

I observe that you enjoy the EW theory very much. I just recommend that you be vry carefull and know exactly what you are doing.

Like I said before, price doesn't always return to "check" back at the broken line.
Not always but mostly, mostly mean more than 50% odds and this mean is worth to try.U should be happy with that because u get oppotunity to add more to short
  • #263
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:55pm Aug 3, 2008 9:55pm
.93 just brings back too many memories , was always good place go long when it was stuck between .93-.95. It reminds me of 1.5300 and EU.
  • #264
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:07pm Aug 3, 2008 10:07pm
Quoting 5ysfx
Not always but mostly, mostly mean more than 50% odds and this mean is worth to try.U should be happy with that because u get oppotunity to add more to short

By no means I am not saying I am not happy. U know we all can be right or wrong.

I just make my decisions based on technical levels. Personally, I would not have entered a long at the current level. Above 0.9338 would be a technical level on intra-day that would make sense for a LONG to me...

Cheers and good luck!
  • #265
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:14pm Aug 3, 2008 10:14pm
aud/jpy is approaching back to solid support around 100.25, nzd/jpy strongly held at 78.25. aud/usd and nzd/usd squeezing strongly tonight. with eur and jpy strength against usd looks like we are due for short covering going into RBA meeting.
Skype: heliosphan187
  • #266
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:19pm Aug 3, 2008 10:19pm
Quoting Dirtybrown
aud/jpy is approaching back to solid support around 100.25, nzd/jpy strongly held at 78.25. aud/usd and nzd/usd squeezing strongly tonight. with eur and jpy strength against usd looks like we are due for short covering going into RBA meeting.
now support became a resistance
  • #267
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:19pm Aug 3, 2008 10:19pm
Quoting Dirtybrown
aud/jpy is approaching back to solid support around 100.25, nzd/jpy strongly held at 78.25. aud/usd and nzd/usd squeezing strongly tonight. with eur and jpy strength against usd looks like we are due for short covering going into RBA meeting.
About NZD, on monthly, here is possible channel.
Attached Image
  • #268
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:23pm Aug 3, 2008 10:23pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
By no means I am not saying I am not happy. U know we all can be right or wrong.

I just make my decisions based on technical levels. Personally, I would not have entered a long at the current level. Above 0.9338 would be a technical level on intra-day that would make sense for a LONG to me...

Cheers and good luck!

So 9300 no good but a break of 9338 is good. Why are you buying as the market is going up. 9300 is a great area to get long.
  • #269
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:26pm Aug 3, 2008 10:26pm
i am newbie in Elliot waves

can any expert tell me if my drawing is right ?
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  • #270
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:26pm Aug 3, 2008 10:26pm
Quoting steelhead
So 9300 no good but a break of 9338 is good. Why are you buying as the market is going up. 9300 is a great area to get long.

Are u asking a question or making a statement???
  • #271
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:26pm Aug 3, 2008 10:26pm
Quoting steelhead
So 9300 no good but a break of 9338 is good. Why are you buying as the market is going up. 9300 is a great area to get long.
Maybe it's his system, and it's successful. All that counts is positive pips.
  • #272
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:34pm Aug 3, 2008 10:34pm
Quoting msniper
i am newbie in Elliot waves

can any expert tell me if my drawing is right ?
I am not an expert but will drew it in same way
  • #273
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:36pm Aug 3, 2008 10:36pm
Quoting 5ysfx
I am not an expert but will drew it in same way

  • #274
  • Aug 4, 2008 3:12am Aug 4, 2008 3:12am
go aussie!
it's ya birthday!!
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #275
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:39pm Aug 4, 2008 12:39pm
My room for aussie in coming days
Only one condition green line must hold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #276
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:42pm Aug 4, 2008 12:42pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
I have technical reasons to believe oil is headed down.

I see price under consolidation, channeling slightly upwards. Consolidations (patterns) after trend moves, either up/down, generally are an indication that the trend will resume the previous direction.

Also, so far, price failed to reach the UTL of the channel observed in OIL H4 which is another indication of reversal.

Hope this makes sense to you all.

Best,
JP.
As expected OIL did go down a bit more. Next stop would be @116.30 or 38.2 retracement.

As mentioned before, price failed to touch the UTL of the asc. channel observed in H4. This is ALWAYS a strong indication of pattern break. Also, patterns like channels are usually consolidation and therefore trend continuation patterns.

I expect it to retrace 100%. Lets see how it plays out.

Lower price oils = stronger USD.

Cheers.
JP.
  • #277
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:45pm Aug 4, 2008 12:45pm
"If this count is correct (in which wave iv is extended), then a rally all the way back to .96 is possible. .9475 is expected at minimum."
source: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx...857089607.html
  • #278
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:46pm Aug 4, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
I just make my decisions based on technical levels. Personally, I would not have entered a long at the current level. Above 0.9338 would be a technical level on intra-day that would make sense for a LONG to me...

Cheers and good luck!

Technical level @ 0.9338 still holding tuff.

Watch out for this level as it is a resistance level. Soon enough we should see a confluence between Res. and a down trendline. Price to "bounce" downwards from this confluence.

Cheers to all.

JP.
  • #279
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:53pm Aug 4, 2008 12:53pm
One more hour and we will be know everything
Atm seems like wont survive at 93c much time.
  • #280
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:56pm Aug 4, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting 5ysfx
One more hour and we will be know everything
Atm seems like wont survive at 93c much time.
One more hour?
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