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No Brainer Trades

  • #2,021
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:01pm Aug 1, 2008 3:01pm
Quoting Gregus83
Hi folks,

I took a couple of long AUD trades today (one of which was called in this thread, although my trade wasn't based on the particular call). Anybody have any input as to why the AUD is taking such a bashing? Is it AUD weakness or other currencies' strength?

Had a look for news that might enlighten me but can't really see anything.

Thanks
AUD is directly correlated to Gold. Also, Australia's economy is slowing, and I believe there is talk of interest rates being cut. NZD just cut their rates and have been clear that more cuts are to come. The two economies are closely tied. Also, the Dollar has had very good strength.

That's the jist, plus the AUD/USD pair has recently fallen out of a long held up trend line, so that can accelerate losses.

That's my take anyway.
  • #2,022
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:33pm Aug 1, 2008 10:33pm
Quoting Gregus83
Hi folks,

I took a couple of long AUD trades today (one of which was called in this thread, although my trade wasn't based on the particular call). Anybody have any input as to why the AUD is taking such a bashing? Is it AUD weakness or other currencies' strength?

Had a look for news that might enlighten me but can't really see anything.

Thanks
Hi Gregus an @all
im still very new to the no brainer, im still reading the pdf and charts.
So i wonder if it is that important to know why a pair is moving.
I like billy's post about "the importance of the hourly close" very very much and im going thru the charts , looking for those situations and i found a lot.

So my question to all of you: should we not wait for an hourly close before getting into a trade?
If so, there was no reason to take a long on AUD, all significat closes pointing to shorts, no close for a long trade
Attached Image
  • #2,023
  • Aug 2, 2008 11:34am Aug 2, 2008 11:34am
Long 106.06 - 106

Short-term support + 50% fib

Next medium-term sup at 105.75
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  • #2,024
  • Aug 2, 2008 11:46am Aug 2, 2008 11:46am
Long GBP/USD 1.9585
Medium-term sup and 76.4% fib
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  • #2,025
  • Aug 2, 2008 1:29pm Aug 2, 2008 1:29pm
Thanks for the input MJurban and finswin. News is a tricky one for me in that I am otherwise emplyed during the day (live in the UK), so any news that comes out can adversely affect my trades without me knowing anything about it! The AUD on Friday hit me quite hard. At my first opportunity of checking, I was pretty well in the red and it didn't look like there was any chance of recovery which basically turned out to be true.

Once I have placed my orders the night before I guess I am at the mercy of the announcements, although I do get the opportunity to check how things are going during lunch). I guess this is the same for many people though.

Anyone have any comments on ways to use this strategy bearing in mind I can't sit looking at the markets all day? Would you say it's (not) suited to my kind of situation?

Thanks
  • #2,026
  • Aug 2, 2008 3:55pm Aug 2, 2008 3:55pm
nice question, since you work i think you should take only high probability trades and set your stoploss the brv way maximum 40pips,and set your take profit 5 pips to the closest support or resistance which sometimes is 20-30pips away,you have to take a small profit cos you would not be there to manage the trade which is very important and get more pips,during your lunch you could monitor and reset parameters.
Quoting Gregus83
Thanks for the input MJurban and finswin. News is a tricky one for me in that I am otherwise emplyed during the day (live in the UK), so any news that comes out can adversely affect my trades without me knowing anything about it! The AUD on Friday hit me quite hard. At my first opportunity of checking, I was pretty well in the red and it didn't look like there was any chance of recovery which basically turned out to be true.

Once I have placed my orders the night before I guess I am at the mercy of the announcements, although I do get the opportunity to check how things are going during lunch). I guess this is the same for many people though.

Anyone have any comments on ways to use this strategy bearing in mind I can't sit looking at the markets all day? Would you say it's (not) suited to my kind of situation?

Thanks
  • #2,027
  • Aug 2, 2008 4:27pm Aug 2, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting pastork
nice question, since you work i think you should take only high probability trades and set your stoploss the brv way maximum 40pips,and set your take profit 5 pips to the closest support or resistance which sometimes is 20-30pips away,you have to take a small profit cos you would not be there to manage the trade which is very important and get more pips,during your lunch you could monitor and reset parameters.
Hi pastork,

Thanks for the comments. I agree with what you're saying. I have been using the strategy in the normal sense i.e. as if I was able to keep myself updated throughout the day, which is not the case.

Thinking about it, you're right in that I am not able to manage the trades in a way that will provide consistent success for me. Too often I have logged on to find the trade has reached a position at which I would have moved to break even only to end up making a loss on that trade.

It's food for thought and I'll have to alter my style to suit my situation. I have generally been using the 40-pip stop rule, maybe just have to lower my targets. Profit is profit after all.
  • #2,028
  • Aug 2, 2008 4:46pm Aug 2, 2008 4:46pm
Been thinking about a "No Brainer" checklist - an overview that basically sums up the process of identifying and executing the no brainer trade. Here's what I've come up with:

  1. Identify previous tried and tested, obvious support/resistance points and mark what your ideal entry range would be while noting those areas of s/r that may prove to be showstoppers for the proposed trade(s).
  2. Identify any confluence of targeted entry point with other factors: fibs, trendlines etc that may be add further evidence to the validity of the trade.
  3. Confirm the sentiment currently being experienced in the chosen market - alter targets/stops accordingly to reduce risk, or be that bit more ambitious. Does the market sentiment further validate the trade?
  4. Check the imminent news releases that may affect the chosen market - what potential effect can they have, thinking more about the negative side of things.
  5. Once satisfied, place order.
  6. Be patient.
  7. Once the trade is live, be alert and manage the trade effectively.

Bear in mind, this is supposed to be a quick overview of the strategy. Have I missed anything or conveyed anything incorrectly?

Greg

  • #2,029
  • Aug 2, 2008 7:25pm Aug 2, 2008 7:25pm
Quoting Gregus83
Been thinking about a "No Brainer" checklist - an overview that basically sums up the process of identifying and executing the no brainer trade. Here's what I've come up with:

  1. Identify previous tried and tested, obvious support/resistance points and mark what your ideal entry range would be while noting those areas of s/r that may prove to be showstoppers for the proposed trade(s).
  2. Identify any confluence of targeted entry point with other factors: fibs, trendlines etc that may be add further evidence to the validity of the trade.
  3. Confirm the sentiment currently being experienced in the chosen market - alter targets/stops accordingly to reduce risk, or be that bit more ambitious. Does the market sentiment further validate the trade?
  4. Check the imminent news releases that may affect the chosen market - what potential effect can they have, thinking more about the negative side of things.
  5. Once satisfied, place order.
  6. Be patient.
  7. Once the trade is live, be alert and manage the trade effectively.

Bear in mind, this is supposed to be a quick overview of the strategy. Have I missed anything or conveyed anything incorrectly?

Greg

Hi Greg. I'm in similar situation like yours , I'm not able to check my trades all day so i'm mostly looking for entrys on daily , sometimes h4 timeframe. It is easier to manage trade like that when you dont have access to your computer. In my case it works most of the time but i have ability to erase all profits from no brainer trades with one 'no brain entry'.
  • #2,030
  • Aug 2, 2008 7:30pm Aug 2, 2008 7:30pm
I married my first wife in 1975.
Shortly after we married we bought a set of Ginsu knives.

I still have the knives...
  • #2,031
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:46pm Aug 2, 2008 9:46pm
Well, here we are, the month of August. This could be the single most dangerous month in the whole year for currency trading. Thin markets = violent swings across the board. Doubt what I say? By all means look at the past history yourself. It will thrill the amateur trader as they count all the retrospective pips they might have made and it will chill the professional trader to the bone as they picture their account going down in flames like a Japenese Zero in a WW II movie. Make no mistake, there is opportunity and there is peril. No, August is not for the faint of heart. Now that you have been summarily warned I will give my thoughts on the market for August.

NFP proved to be a raging disappointment, as the numbers just weren’t bad enough to fuel doom and gloom sentiment for the greenback.

The USDCHF is currently topping out @ 1.0510 area. 1.0520 has been a descent sell level in the past and while this area holds opportunity for 10-20 pip gains in the short term, beware of the range that lulls you to sleep. I see more upside for this pair. 106 and beyond are not out of reach.

EURUSD…. Oh, how I love to sell thee. Can it rise? Should it rise? Sure, but the trend is down. I’m watching levels to find spots to sell with the trend. Remember, countertrend bounces off levels give up 10-20 pips, (except for the rare occasion that you catch a bottom or a top.) but a reaction with the trend can be 100-200+ run.

GBPUSD, I know what you did last summer. 1,000 pip dive from 7/25 until 8/17 followed by a 700 pip recovery from 8/17 to 9/12. This eventually lead us to a new high above 2.10 that culminated in the most lovely pin bar ever seen on Nov 4th (weekly chart) before selling off again. But I’m not sentimental. With a break of 1.9735 there is more downside to be had. I don’t expect a break above 1.9900 for the month but we will see where the currency currents take us.

USDCAD, The CAD moves like the syrup they so proudly export most of the time, but after forming a double bottom on the 4hr from 7/15 to 7/17 it has climbed 280+ pips. It is currently finding a home from 1.0295 to the 1.0220 area. I’m looking for more upside above 103 but that usually means a pullback to get us there. So I’m watching lower levels for a buy.

So there you have it. Tread lightly and guard your equity, because at the end of the day it is all you have!


***Disclaimer***


The comments noted here are for educational purposes only and should not be substituted for the advice of a professional broker, who needs your money more than you do. No warranties, expressed or implied. Batteries not included. Women who are nursing, pregnant, or may become pregnant should use extreme caution.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #2,032
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:47pm Aug 2, 2008 9:47pm
Quoting WNW
I married my first wife in 1975.
Shortly after we married we bought a set of Ginsu knives.

I still have the knives...
See, I knew it wasn't all hype!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #2,033
  • Aug 2, 2008 11:13pm Aug 2, 2008 11:13pm
Quoting Greenhaze
Hi Greg. I'm in similar situation like yours , I'm not able to check my trades all day so i'm mostly looking for entrys on daily , sometimes h4 timeframe. It is easier to manage trade like that when you dont have access to your computer. In my case it works most of the time but i have ability to erase all profits from no brainer trades with one 'no brain entry'.
Greenhaze and Gregus83

Beginning this Monday my hours shepherding my trades will be cut back to just before the NY session to just after its close. Then a few hours of the Asian session. Maybe we could compare notes regarding our trades. Please PM me if you are interested.
  • #2,034
  • Aug 2, 2008 11:16pm Aug 2, 2008 11:16pm
Quoting WNW
I married my first wife in 1975.
Shortly after we married we bought a set of Ginsu knives.

I still have the knives...

Yes, I Know ... !!! Same here !!!! I only have 1 Ginsu, true, its a nice butcher knife.. but where is the rest of the set? I have no idea !!
  • #2,035
  • Aug 2, 2008 11:45pm Aug 2, 2008 11:45pm
I came here to look for trade calls and all I got was this huge bill for the deluxe Ginsu set.
  • #2,036
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:26am Aug 3, 2008 1:26am
Quoting Verto
I came here to look for trade calls and all I got was this huge bill for the deluxe Ginsu set.
It all started here. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=324

Don't worry there's plenty of info to trade on here as well as the occassional product validation.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #2,037
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:29am Aug 3, 2008 1:29am
Quoting Iron-man
It all started here. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=324

Don't worry there's plenty of info to trade on here as well as the occassional product validation.
Oh, I know I'm just being a joker. This is a wonderful thread and contains a countless amount of valuable info. Anyone just joining... don't think its all about Ginsu knives.
  • #2,038
  • Aug 3, 2008 8:30am Aug 3, 2008 8:30am
Does anyone find intraday, daily or weekly pivot points useful?
  • #2,039
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:26am Aug 3, 2008 9:26am
Quoting Lou
Greenhaze and Gregus83

Beginning this Monday my hours shepherding my trades will be cut back to just before the NY session to just after its close. Then a few hours of the Asian session. Maybe we could compare notes regarding our trades. Please PM me if you are interested.
I`m in. I can monitor the whole US session since I use mobile trading at work and my boss is really cool with the idea of me neglecting my duties to trade pm/skype is fine with me
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #2,040
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:01am Aug 3, 2008 10:01am
Thanks Ironman for your intro to August I've been nervous about it myself cause I've heard a lot of talk about the dreaded month but haven't really known exactly what to expect - I'm glad to learn the market still moves!!!

Just a quick question on how you determine important levels....

It seems if you draw a random horizontal line anywhere on the chart you can scroll back and find countless times it has been used as both support and resistance so my question is this..

When is a s/r point (turning range) not a s/r (turning range) point>?

Sound like a stupid question but I think an answer here will clarify my understanding of how you go about finding these points.

I've attached a chart of GBP/USD of what I think are potential turning points - Any comments would be much appreciated cheers

The thick lines are Major points the normal lines are minor ones and the dotted line is a weaker one (In my interpretation)

Also... How many pairs do you guys watch at once?

Cheers
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