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No Brainer Trades

  • #1,981
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:27am Aug 1, 2008 8:27am
Quoting finswin56
Personally, I think the No Brainer of the day is to buy the dollar on pullbacks (JPY excluded, as I can't get a handle on that one this week).
I wouldn't sell the dollar at all today, JMO though.
Its so mixed right now so difficult to judge...I took a couple scalps and was in and out. The index is all over the place. Anyway, some good levels held up well already though, good for some good cash to end the week.
  • #1,982
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:29am Aug 1, 2008 8:29am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I'm thinking CHF or GBP might be the most whacky...Swiss are on holiday today as well. I feel like EUR has a pretty hard ceiling above it right now thats overall going to be hard to follow through on, but I could be wrong.

Only thing I have on nonfarm is another estimate from Goldman - theyre expecting only -50k, but then again they were way off on yesterday's GDP (they expected 2.5 - actual was 1.9). And also, yesterday's initial jobless claims were much higher than expected, so if that's any reflection of what's coming today the forecasted number could be closer in line. But I've learned not to try to predict these things and wait and see, just like everyone else.
So it looks like we're trusting Goldman on nonfarm, but NOT GDP . They were only off by 4k....thats pretty good.
  • #1,983
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:30am Aug 1, 2008 8:30am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Its so mixed right now so difficult to judge...I took a couple scalps and was in and out. The index is all over the place. Anyway, some good levels held up well already though, good for some good change to end the week.
Yeah, we're definitely range bound for the moment. I just think there's a much stronger possibility for the Dollar to rally hard than vice versa. I'm not comfortable playing ranges both ways yet, so I stick with the overall direction I see the market moving in.
It's pretty clear the Dollar has been strong for a solid week now, and the overall data supports that move vs the data for most other currencies.
  • #1,984
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:32am Aug 1, 2008 8:32am
Quoting sivaji
dear BRV .... I had long GBP/USD from 1.9742.... Looks like the 1.9735 - 1.9745 is a good support level.. pls comment and correct me if i'm wrong..

Yeah this kind of trade can work out from time to time, but I would use a little caution in trades like this as the level was just used as support only a couple days ago. Finding double bottoms/tops on smaller timeframes are usually less likely to hold than resistance turned support, or the other way around - like the examples in the posts on scalping.
  • #1,985
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:34am Aug 1, 2008 8:34am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yeah this kind of trade can work out from time to time, but I would use a little caution in trades like this as the level was just used as support only a couple days ago. Finding double bottoms/tops on smaller timeframes are usually less likely to hold than resistance turned support, or the other way around - like the examples in the posts on scalping.
Half hour from the ISM report. Normally it probably wouldn't mean as much on NFP day, but if it beats expectations, those levels should break on Dollar rallies.
  • #1,986
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:42am Aug 1, 2008 8:42am
Quoting finswin56
Half hour from the ISM report. Normally it probably wouldn't mean as much on NFP day, but if it beats expectations, those levels should break on Dollar rallies.
SPX is tanking flat on its face as we speak.....this ought to be interesting.
  • #1,987
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:44am Aug 1, 2008 8:44am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
SPX is tanking flat on its face as we speak.....this ought to be interesting.
Man, this thing is so goofy.
I feel like everyone got so worked up for NFP, but didn't get a sexy enough number to really move the market. So now it seems like another calm before the storm, except this time ISM seems like it's going to get a LOT of attention.
  • #1,988
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:55am Aug 1, 2008 8:55am
LONG aud/jpy 100.30, stop 99.64, TP 101.34

aud/jpy is at 100.30 as I post this, so the call is valid

edit... I just saw I had actually called this trade yesterday to go long at 100.22 - 100.00. 100.30 is still a good place to go long
  • #1,989
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:57am Aug 1, 2008 8:57am
Quoting len979
LONG aud/jpy 100.30, stop 99.64, TP 101.34

aud/jpy is at 100.30 as I post this, so the call is valid
Len youre taking my trades man ....I didnt post it here but Im in it dude....again.
  • #1,990
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:00am Aug 1, 2008 9:00am
Just went long aud/jpy @ 100.34. woke up a few mins ago
  • #1,991
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:02am Aug 1, 2008 9:02am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Len youre taking my trades man ....I didnt post it here but Im in it dude....again.
hahaaa ... i must be a mind reader or a psychic lol, or we just think alike

I missed the whole NFP thing, but again I was never much of a news trader, nor payed much attention to news
  • #1,992
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:02am Aug 1, 2008 9:02am
ISM 50 on the nose. IDK if that's enough to break the levels, but it should limit any dollar weakness, UNLESS Oil keeps its legs.
  • #1,993
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:06am Aug 1, 2008 9:06am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Len youre taking my trades man ....I didnt post it here but Im in it dude....again.
Hey BRV, where did you buy aud/jpy, and where's your stop and TP?
  • #1,994
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:08am Aug 1, 2008 9:08am
Quoting len979
Hey BRV, where did you buy aud/jpy, and where's your stop and TP?
I got in later than I wanted to around 30, with a 40 pip sl, take profit a little over 100 pips away at the first resistance level; problem with this pair long is these carry pairs are still selling off.....I dont know if its going to get seen.
  • #1,995
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:09am Aug 1, 2008 9:09am
I'm also long aud/usd @ 0.9322. Limit order got hit at 8.34am this morning
  • #1,996
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:12am Aug 1, 2008 9:12am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I got in later than I wanted to around 30, with a 40 pip sl, take profit a little over 100 pips away at the first resistance level; problem with this pair long is these carry pairs are still selling off.....I dont know if its going to get seen.
Your right on these carry pairs... they've got a mind of their own. I usually buy a smaller amount than usuall with a slightly wider stop, although I think there's very good support on this one... on 4hr, daily and weekly charts.

But like I've said before, anything is possible in forex. Always place a stop to protect your $$$
  • #1,997
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:16am Aug 1, 2008 9:16am
Quoting len979
I'm also long aud/usd @ 0.9322. Limit order got hit at 8.34am this morning

len i`m with ya on that one one pip worse than you

also long nzd/usd @ .7255


p.s. how would you go about your TP levels. would you hold this over weekend I`m pretty excited over the mid term life cycle of these two. Could be a gold mine if we picked some short/mid-term bottom
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,998
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:20am Aug 1, 2008 9:20am
Quoting djambazov84
len i`m with ya on that one one pip worse than you

also long nzd/usd @ .7255
Excellent trade! Missed that one. Had set an alarm on it.... alarm went off at 2.50am.... didn't even hear it.

I'll short a little at 0.7390
  • #1,999
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:21am Aug 1, 2008 9:21am
Quoting len979
Your right on these carry pairs... they've got a mind of their own. I usually buy a smaller amount than usuall with a slightly wider stop, although I think there's very good support on this one... on 4hr, daily and weekly charts.

But like I've said before, anything is possible in forex. Always place a stop to protect your $$$
Bingo. Either way we've got 100.00 just lower. Its acted as good resistance in the past not to mention the psych value. So from a technical edge all is well....but markets declining heavily next week could get nasty on this pair. Overall Im still looking for good pullbacks for sells.
  • #2,000
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:26am Aug 1, 2008 9:26am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Bingo. Either way we've got 100.00 just lower. Its acted as good resistance in the past not to mention the psych value. So from a technical edge all is well....but markets declining heavily next week could get nasty on this pair. Overall Im still looking for good pullbacks on sells.
On Friday's, when you're in on a pair that isn't really moving, like this one, would you dump it at the end of the day, or carry it through the weekend?
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