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  • #1,961
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:42am Aug 1, 2008 2:42am
Quoting rogerdoger
You are still considering posting your trades in this thread correct? I'm sure all of us would appreciate that and many of us are probably willing to help pitch in to give you a hand. All you have to do is just ask
oh yeah for sure.
  • #1,962
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:43am Aug 1, 2008 2:43am
Hi BRV,

I've noticed that you talk about different markets (stocks, oil, gold) and their effect on the forex market. I must admit I am a complete dunce when it comes to knowing much about these markets and how they effect the currency world. Are there some easy to follow guidlines (not rules but guidlines) that you look for in other markets that can be applied to specific currency pairs? For instance, gold goes up look for the Aussie dollar to be strong.

If this is a too complicated or time consuming subject to address I'll understand.
  • #1,963
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:00am Aug 1, 2008 3:00am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi BRV,

I've noticed that you talk about different markets (stocks, oil, gold) and their effect on the forex market. I must admit I am a complete dunce when it comes to knowing much about these markets and how they effect the currency world. Are there some easy to follow guidlines (not rules but guidlines) that you look for in other markets that can be applied to specific currency pairs? For instance, gold goes up look for the Aussie dollar to be strong.

If this is a too complicated or time consuming subject to address I'll understand.
Hi there no sweat...actually we were talking about it earlier in this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1311
Keep in mind though that sometimes the correlations can be worked out logically, and sometimes they cant. In this market there are a ton of tendencies for the two to disconnect with one another.....thats why we pretty much always go back to trading the levels, becuase they are the price reactionary point, and you pretty much wait for market hysteria to keep driving price in the direction you want to go.
  • #1,964
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:03am Aug 1, 2008 3:03am
Quoting pastork
nice to hear from you, pls keep speakn to us,pls wat is a wick and how do i identify them.would be glad to see your response
This should help. Wicks are also referred to as shadows. http://www.babypips.com/school/what_...ndlestick.html
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #1,965
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:55am Aug 1, 2008 3:55am
I hear this question asked alot in the thread. Since I live in the US I wish the answer was different but here it is. There are three time frames I have found good to trade and they are London, London and London. London (along with the Eurozone) handles the bulk of the worlds volume. The US session is second. 2-3 hours into the London session things tend to settle down for an hour or two and picks up again in the hour before the US session. By trading the London session start to finish you will get the greatest portion of trading volume.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #1,966
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:27am Aug 1, 2008 4:27am
I must admit I will not be taking this trade, but here is definitely something worth noticing....

Stochs are oversold on this long-term chart, and obviously we all notice the trendline dating back from Late June of 2006. However I personally do not like taking trades just based on TL's, so if you feel this is inappropriate I apologize, I just felt that this was something to be watched out for.
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  • #1,967
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:35am Aug 1, 2008 4:35am
Quoting ssteiner87
I must admit I will not be taking this trade, but here is definitely something worth noticing....

Stochs are oversold on this long-term chart, and obviously we all notice the trendline dating back from Late June of 2006. However I personally do not like taking trades just based on TL's, so if you feel this is inappropriate I apologize, I just felt that this was something to be watched out for.
Hi ssteiner, laughing here a little bit Im sorry because I might not have been too clear as to what I posted about earlier. When I said inappropriate I was talking about some other things being said recently that weren't so nice, but I wasn't referring to trading itself. Trading is what we SHOULD be talking about . That was just me seeking a little maturity from some certain members.

Anyway I see what you mean and there's definitely some significance here. At about .7273, there's some good horizontal support, followed by about .7242 area, so its possible we might get a bounce on this in combination with the diagonal trendline. Some bank research I got this morning was pointing out the same thing. Thank you for the input!
  • #1,968
  • Aug 1, 2008 5:52am Aug 1, 2008 5:52am
Hi all ..............How are ya all? I wanted a bit of advice/insight if possible..........if NFP comes negative which cross you plan to trade.......EU/USD.....GBP/USD.......USD/CHF.....or AUD/$ ....I personally thought of going long on AUD/$ or EU/$. Could anybody advice me how to post VT charts to this thread.....I tried still can't figure out........silly me...........lol
any input will be highly appreciated........
Happy piping gang!
BANDA333
  • #1,969
  • Aug 1, 2008 5:58am Aug 1, 2008 5:58am
Hi sorry if this has been answered a thousand times already haven't had the time to get through 100 pages of this great thread yet.....

Just wondering how you would approach NFD days - I have heard a million times before people saying there isn't a system in hell that can stop you losing money on these days but just wanted your personal opinion.

Cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,970
  • Aug 1, 2008 6:14am Aug 1, 2008 6:14am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hi sorry if this has been answered a thousand times already haven't had the time to get through 100 pages of this great thread yet.....

Just wondering how you would approach NFD days - I have heard a million times before people saying there isn't a system in hell that can stop you losing money on these days but just wanted your personal opinion.

Cheers
Hi Cindy, aside from spike trading (people getting executed at the instant the news is released), if you get a severe reading on a report, there are sometimes opportunities to go in the direction of the spike on the first take profit attempt (pullback) near a recent level.

So for instance, a trade I took today during the GDP release was on EUR after it first spiked; it pulled back to a recent resistance level at 1.5640, and I went long. The deviation on the number is important; this one today was rather big (.3%) from the forecasted number, so I could expect further follow through, but this isnt the case all the time of course. Same is true for Nonfarm or anything else. I typically trade EUR if I trade anything during these releases; its risky business if you really dont know what you're doing, so I wouldnt recommend much here.

In terms of levels holding after or during the release sometimes they do, but again based on the severity of the actual number versus the forecasted number, determines the strength of the move and how likely these levels are to be wiped out.
  • #1,971
  • Aug 1, 2008 6:21am Aug 1, 2008 6:21am
Quoting BANDA
Hi all ..............How are ya all? I wanted a bit of advice/insight if possible..........if NFP comes negative which cross you plan to trade.......EU/USD.....GBP/USD.......USD/CHF.....or AUD/$ ....I personally thought of going long on AUD/$ or EU/$. Could anybody advice me how to post VT charts to this thread.....I tried still can't figure out........silly me...........lol
any input will be highly appreciated........
Happy piping gang!
I'm thinking CHF or GBP might be the most whacky...Swiss are on holiday today as well. I feel like EUR has a pretty hard ceiling above it right now thats overall going to be hard to follow through on, but I could be wrong.

Only thing I have on nonfarm is another estimate from Goldman - theyre expecting only -50k, but then again they were way off on yesterday's GDP (they expected 2.5 - actual was 1.9). And also, yesterday's initial jobless claims were much higher than expected, so if that's any reflection of what's coming today the forecasted number could be closer in line. But I've learned not to try to predict these things and wait and see, just like everyone else.
  • #1,972
  • Aug 1, 2008 6:32am Aug 1, 2008 6:32am
BRV
Thank you for the insight.........good thing just noticed EU/$ just under the weekly(pivot) S1 too........going to study bit CHF now .......CHF also on a weekly support........ maybe will wait for 5m candle after NFP if broker do not widen the spread to jump in and try .............

thank you


Quoting BillyRayValentine
I'm thinking CHF or GBP might be the most whacky...Swiss are on holiday today as well. I feel like EUR has a pretty hard ceiling above it right now thats overall going to be hard to follow through on, but I could be wrong.

Only thing I have on nonfarm is another estimate from Goldman - theyre expecting only -50k, but then again they were way off on yesterday's GDP (they expected 2.5 - actual was 1.9). And also, yesterday's initial jobless claims were much higher than expected, so if that's any reflection of what's coming today the forecasted number could be closer in line. But I've learned not to try to predict these things and wait and see, just like everyone else.
BANDA333
  • #1,973
  • Aug 1, 2008 6:39am Aug 1, 2008 6:39am
Quoting BANDA
BRV
Thank you for the insight.........good thing just noticed EU/$ just under the weekly(pivot) S1 too........going to study bit CHF now .......CHF also on a weekly support........ maybe will wait for 5m candle after NFP if broker do not widen the spread to jump in and try .............

thank you
Yeah youre right....I was just thinking in terms of liquidity and overall bias....from a technical point of view all the pairs are all posing some odd issues....there's always going to be something .
  • #1,974
  • Aug 1, 2008 7:54am Aug 1, 2008 7:54am
NZD/USD has bounced off a TL/FIB combo. The bounce is strong, and counter-intuitive (to me at least like yesterday's GDP reaction) but anyway, I am looking at the 7358 as my target. Godspeed everyone.
  • #1,975
  • Aug 1, 2008 7:55am Aug 1, 2008 7:55am
I'm still short AUD/ USD. Aussie is WEAK
  • #1,976
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:03am Aug 1, 2008 8:03am
dear BRV .... I had long GBP/USD from 1.9742.... Looks like the 1.9735 - 1.9745 is a good support level.. pls comment and correct me if i'm wrong..
STRENGHT IS LIFE ,WEAKNESS IS DEATH - SWAMI VIVEKANANDA
  • #1,977
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:17am Aug 1, 2008 8:17am
Dear Tribe,

Which do you find more useful: Daily and Weekly pivot points or standard S/L levels we've all been looking at? Or maybe both.

Thanks,

Visual One
  • #1,978
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:18am Aug 1, 2008 8:18am
Quoting Donadoney
NZD/USD has bounced off a TL/FIB combo. The bounce is strong, and counter-intuitive (to me at least like yesterday's GDP reaction) but anyway, I am looking at the 7358 as my target. Godspeed everyone.
Godspeed.
  • #1,979
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:19am Aug 1, 2008 8:19am
Follow through may not be there? Tight stop loss, have no remorse saying adios to my NZD long
  • #1,980
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:23am Aug 1, 2008 8:23am
Personally, I think the No Brainer of the day is to buy the dollar on pullbacks (JPY excluded, as I can't get a handle on that one this week).
I wouldn't sell the dollar at all today, JMO though.
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