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  • #4,701
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:54pm Jul 31, 2008 9:54pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
I'm not in this trade but following along. Let's assume we decide to get in short for a quick scalp trade b/c it's Asian session which is typically a dud, but which targets would we use for our swing? Targets from the first chart or targets from the second chart? I'm leaning towards the second chart b/c of the low volatility during Asian session, but just curious. And if this were London session I'd be shooting for targets from the first chart swing and the intraday. Sound about right?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: july 31st hourly swing2.gif Size: 20 KB
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #4,702
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:04pm Jul 31, 2008 10:04pm
Quoting FxChi
I'm not in this trade but following along. Let's assume we decide to get in short for a quick scalp trade b/c it's Asian session which is typically a dud, but which targets would we use for our swing? Targets from the first chart or targets from the second chart? I'm leaning towards the second chart b/c of the low volatility during Asian session, but just curious. And if this were London session I'd be shooting for targets from the first chart swing and the intraday. Sound about right?

I belive its personal taste...you have to ask yourself am I happy with the few pips of the second chart or am I willing to hold it during tokyo. I believe theirs no right answer. Let price show what is right, what I mean by this is if price goes to the closes target of the small swing and it slows down and shows no momeuntum you can made a decision based on that. Hope this helps
  • #4,703
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:15pm Jul 31, 2008 10:15pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Sure that helps. Well Asia session is usually low volatility so a conservative take profit is chart 2 (if we wanted to set a limit to get out). If it were London session, then the conservative targets would be chart 1 before intraday targets. Anyways, if I were in this trade I'd definitely go with chart 2 targets at support.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #4,704
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:39pm Jul 31, 2008 10:39pm
As in my case, it usually start as a swing trade, and finishes as in a scalp. It depend of a lot of things, like right now i am in front of screen, i could have re-enter right now at 9816, but it is a scalp. If i do and go to bed, it is a swing. But to understand, it is not the amount of pip that count, it is to have a positive trade that is important. I will usually take the same money risk whatever the stop loss is. But the problem is when you take quick profit but had large stop loss as for a swing trade doesn't work on the long run... Now 9819, i think i re-enter at 9824, sl at 9849, tp 9786. but will scalp it as usual. Some gbp news at 04:30 am EST prior to the nfp at 08:30. Will sleep this week end.. now 9821.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,705
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:54pm Jul 31, 2008 10:54pm
I am currently long since the previous candle high broke...I am up about 10 pips...Its a scalp...

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  • #4,706
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:06pm Jul 31, 2008 11:06pm
I am long but If price brakes the previous candles low I will consider closing and reversing...

I have flipped my swing fibb since I whant to see the closes tear of support..

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  • #4,707
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:10pm Jul 31, 2008 11:10pm
i'm back short at 98245 on the bounce.. Put my alarms at 9826 hoping to catch some sleep.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,708
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:29pm Jul 31, 2008 11:29pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting Shermenator
I am long but If price brakes the previous candles low I will consider closing and reversing...

I have flipped my swing fibb since I whant to see the closes tear of support..

Attachment
I know this is a little nit picky, but Bo had said to look at swings of 30 pips. That one's a little less at 23...or is this one of those trader discretion things again? Or does the swing show valid support/resistance levels as long as there's some sort of swing in place?
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #4,709
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:33pm Jul 31, 2008 11:33pm
Quoting FxChi
I know this is a little nit picky, but Bo had said to look at swings of 30 pips. That one's a little less at 23...or is this one of those trader discretion things again? Or does the swing show valid support/resistance levels as long as there's some sort of swing in place?
If price comes down and stalls on it because of support...Its working lol....thats how I see it...I might be wrong but BOBOKUS will tell us whats right...
  • #4,710
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:43pm Jul 31, 2008 11:43pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
My .50 of that swing was 1.9813 and the low of this candle so far is 1.9812, and it hit the .50 and had a nice bounce there. Interesting indeed...
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #4,711
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:46pm Jul 31, 2008 11:46pm
I seem to remember Bo writing in previous posts that the 30 pips is almost a bare minimum to look at.

Happy Pippin'
KC


Quoting FxChi
I know this is a little nit picky, but Bo had said to look at swings of 30 pips. That one's a little less at 23...or is this one of those trader discretion things again? Or does the swing show valid support/resistance levels as long as there's some sort of swing in place?
  • #4,712
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:13am Aug 1, 2008 12:13am
I have moved up my sell stop to the previous candles low...and have also pulled my swing fibb high to the previous candles high...

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  • #4,713
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:34am Aug 1, 2008 12:34am
stop and reverse has been hit....negative 5 pips....
Currently short

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  • #4,714
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:26pm Aug 1, 2008 9:26pm
I've been reading thru the post and came across this and just HAD to comment. I'm a redneck with a northern accent.

Quoting Bobokus
LOL, I gotta be able to complete one without screwin it up first. They might be a little hard to understand the language too, since Im a redneck with a southern accent.
  • #4,715
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:59pm Aug 1, 2008 9:59pm
The retracement short is still holding so we have to pay attention to some of this action coming up...also look at the double bottom formed at the intraday low...Let me know what you guys think....

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  • #4,716
  • Edited 4:42am Aug 2, 2008 3:51am | Edited 4:42am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
When you click on link you will see an article, to the right of the article you have a section called Related videos and Graphics under this you will find a headline mentioned Meg brown sees Euro Falling to near 1.47 by the end of the year


She also talk about the sterling...and how it should drop...

BOBOKUS please give me your opinion on this. I am trying to get a feel for the fundamental side of trading. Let me know what you think of the video...

What I am trying to understand is how to intake this as an intraday trader and how to act upon it?
Help me out bud


Also guys take a look at oil prices....price attempted to make a move up over the the past 3 days but seems to not find enough support...It also already broke out of its small attempt at pushing up...as well as the intraday already failed as support and seems like price might begin to start pushing down....we might find a drop next trading day on oil...

4 hour chart view...

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Same chart but on a 1 hour chart view...

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  • #4,717
  • Aug 2, 2008 1:05pm Aug 2, 2008 1:05pm
hi all
i am new in forex ,any body know how i can draw 62 envlope line?
  • #4,718
  • Aug 2, 2008 3:09pm Aug 2, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting Shermenator
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
When you click on link you will see an article, to the right of the article you have a section called Related videos and Graphics under this you will find a headline mentioned Meg brown sees Euro Falling to near 1.47 by the end of the year


She also talk about the sterling...and how it should drop...

BOBOKUS please give me your opinion on this. I am trying to get a feel for the fundamental side of trading. Let me know what you think of the video...

What I am trying to understand is how to intake this as an intraday trader and how to act upon it?
Help me out bud


Also guys take a look at oil prices....price attempted to make a move up over the the past 3 days but seems to not find enough support...It also already broke out of its small attempt at pushing up...as well as the intraday already failed as support and seems like price might begin to start pushing down....we might find a drop next trading day on oil...

4 hour chart view...

Attachment

Same chart but on a 1 hour chart view...

Attachment

The problem is... Anything can happen! My opinion is, the bear market is here to stay. The world is changing, 1300 millions chinese people are getting out of dark age. 1000 millions india people too. It will be going on for the next 25 years. The currencies will keep going down against commodities these people are buying. Since a year it`s mostly negative news that drive the curencies one against each other. The US$ have lead the way, now all other currencies are picking up, it`s just normal that we see a major correction on all US$ pairs. But it`s only a correction. It may last for another 3mth, 6 months, 2 -3 year. If only i knew i wouldn`t be posting you here. lol!
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,719
  • Aug 2, 2008 3:28pm Aug 2, 2008 3:28pm
Good to follow fundies really, they move the market but judging trend bias from it can lead to mis-interpreting the market. I have recently seen the fundies coming out fantastic and yet market moving against it. would one say there is manipulation some where? I trade wot i see on the chart after the fundies 'erratic pseudo-movement' is over.
  • #4,720
  • Edited 11:03pm Aug 2, 2008 8:06pm | Edited 11:03pm
Had nothing to do better today then to give a shot a some wave analysis. This is completely suggestive and probably erroneous but permit me to focus.

Monthly:

After the historical top at 2.1135 and a sharp decline to 1.9337 (1800 pips in 10 weeks) cable have test the sub 38.2 level seven times yet.
Suggesting further correction to at least the 50 level located at 9091 for a C wave completion. But further visit to the 2.0464 territory to complete a
B wave is still possible before the south trip.

Weekly:

Bearish Gartley pattern suggest more down move, to the lower band at 9560 would be plausible.

Daily:

This time, lower band already reached, suggesting immediate rebound or trend continuity. Mid support expected at 9750.

4Hr:

Bullish Gartley pattern become apparent, and strong support at 9732 suggest rebound to 9859-9942 area for incoming week.


August month begins and no rates hikes in view, i expect more range action for the following 3 weeks.

Here what should be my trading strategy, It will be to sit on my hands and wait for 61.8 retracement to be pierce before any trading decision.

I will set up alarm to my cell and will wake-up at any time in order to make the trade if needed.
I will go to sleep early every night in order to be able to do so.
I will risk 2% once a day only if i have a good set-up, with a 2:1 risk reward minimum and let the position run till
completion even if it takes many days.
I will try hard to stay calm and not take any profit before target reach. I will not trail stop.
I should come back to read this post sometime.
And i will change plans as needed.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
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