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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,521
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:54am Jul 31, 2008 10:54am
Quoting fti
Hi DutchAngel,
You are correct.
Mounting rescues against impulse, is a sin.
It makes a mockery of what I have taught, in totality.
Its a sure way to kill your account.
it;s not whether it will, its just when?

Trading into MAJOR figure releases is another.


I wish there's some rocks for me to hide under now.

regards.
OK. FTI, please see the chart. Maybe it is a reference for all the friends.
Did I trade against the impulse? Would you give me my job back then?

If my positions exposed into news, as long as the size is so small that even 100 pips didn't hurt my book, that is OK. Maybe I am wrong, I will think about this again.

Oanda platform, the spreads during news will expand to 20~40 pips, my platform is OK, but I will get requotes, you get the fill with bad price a lot of times.
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  • #4,522
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:06am Jul 31, 2008 11:06am
dance guys and 'feel' the music, and dont pull the wrong steps, but look out for her long legs she may kick you in the groin...

Inserted Video
  • #4,523
  • Edited 11:20am Jul 31, 2008 11:15am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting MaMood
Hi there,

may be marked passage of the report is the explanation of this strange moves today. But it may also be just Bullshit ...

Misread on GDP Sends Dollar on Wild Goose Chase
Donnerstag, 31. Juli 2008 17:48:00


New York, July 31. It was all about first impressions when it came to today's market reactions to US GDP data. The dollar got slammed initially due to lower-than-forecast Q2 and Q4 07 results, but eventually folks dug more deeply into the report to find that a drawdown in inventories trimmed Q2 GDP by a whopping 1.92%. This is good news because slender inventories means less overhang in the current and following quarters and greater likelihood that GDP will remain positive, also helped along by strong exports and falling imports. The recent drop in oil prices should help with the latter as well. Regional PMI data has on balance been better than expected today, but USD/CHF traders are only willing to take price so far before tomorrow's US employment and ISM releases. Last at 1.0493, offers are seen at 1.0520 and 1.0540. Major buyers noted today at 1.0405 but we'd need some bad news to get back there before tomorrow's releases. Swiss CPI was near forecast o/n and the SNB is a coin-toss to either raise rates or hold steady in September. [i][email protected][/i] /pcw
Sorry wrong post.
  • #4,524
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:24am Jul 31, 2008 11:24am
Quoting MaMood
Hi there,

may be marked passage of the report is the explanation of this strange moves today. But it may also be just Bullshit ...

Misread on GDP Sends Dollar on Wild Goose Chase
Donnerstag, 31. Juli 2008 17:48:00


New York, July 31. It was all about first impressions when it came to today's market reactions to US GDP data. The dollar got slammed initially due to lower-than-forecast Q2 and Q4 07 results, but eventually folks dug more deeply into the report to find that a drawdown in inventories trimmed Q2 GDP by a whopping 1.92%. This is good news because slender inventories means less overhang in the current and following quarters and greater likelihood that GDP will remain positive, also helped along by strong exports and falling imports. The recent drop in oil prices should help with the latter as well. Regional PMI data has on balance been better than expected today, but USD/CHF traders are only willing to take price so far before tomorrow's US employment and ISM releases. Last at 1.0493, offers are seen at 1.0520 and 1.0540. Major buyers noted today at 1.0405 but we'd need some bad news to get back there before tomorrow's releases. Swiss CPI was near forecast o/n and the SNB is a coin-toss to either raise rates or hold steady in September. [i][email protected][/i] /pcw
Thanks for your "report". Now I know why there was no rebound during the fall from the top 5700(EU) 9920(GU).

If I knew this news, maybe I would hold my rescue positions, maybe today will be much better.
  • #4,525
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:29am Jul 31, 2008 11:29am
Quoting MaMood
Hi there,

may be marked passage of the report is the explanation of this strange moves today. But it may also be just Bullshit ...

Misread on GDP Sends Dollar on Wild Goose Chase
Donnerstag, 31. Juli 2008 17:48:00


New York, July 31. It was all about first impressions when it came to today's market reactions to US GDP data. The dollar got slammed initially due to lower-than-forecast Q2 and Q4 07 results, but eventually folks dug more deeply into the report to find that a drawdown in inventories trimmed Q2 GDP by a whopping 1.92%. This is good news because slender inventories means less overhang in the current and following quarters and greater likelihood that GDP will remain positive, also helped along by strong exports and falling imports. The recent drop in oil prices should help with the latter as well. Regional PMI data has on balance been better than expected today, but USD/CHF traders are only willing to take price so far before tomorrow's US employment and ISM releases. Last at 1.0493, offers are seen at 1.0520 and 1.0540. Major buyers noted today at 1.0405 but we'd need some bad news to get back there before tomorrow's releases. Swiss CPI was near forecast o/n and the SNB is a coin-toss to either raise rates or hold steady in September. [i][email protected][/i] /pcw
Hi MaMood,

For a long time, all these tricks, and ploys had been used to trap dealers.
This is the reason, that many market makers tends not to want to quote during the first 15 minutes of fig releases, and for bona fide customers , wide prices.
The people who are accountable for theses fig tabulations, in actuals have vested interest. I for one do not pay much attention to them, nor their guestimates, or the people who have intelligent view and opinions of them.
They are all speakers fromposition and interest. TOO much manipulation is the key word.

For every 100 reason , that may be given for it, you can find 100 reasons against it, the market determines the victor.

I trust only the market and her trends. In times like this , she's so confused , and she know not what she does. I'll trade , once the euforia is gone and she settles down. I don't like stray bullet chances, its not business just gambling. Normally not trading until half an hour of the releases , or when she has etermined trend, would stand good for the gamble to be defused.

But of course if one had to have a position, then keeping it very tiny, may ride thru the storm.


regards
  • #4,526
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:47am Jul 31, 2008 11:47am
Now that the bulls and bears had clashed, it time for the vultures to come a picking on the cracases of the dead bull , bears and mostly the pigs all over the grounds.

Not much will ensue now only mild calm.
For the picks of spoils of war.

In reality the markets didn't moved anywhere, but there are surely many dead greedy gamblers and some richer greedy gamblers, for this is not the day that they should fall. Until another battle, his fate will be put to the test again.


regards
  • #4,527
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:55am Jul 31, 2008 11:55am
Hi all,

It's been a very busy day today. I dont want to get into positioning or todays trades, and if Fti, thinks this post is in appropriate I will delete.

But when I think of impulses I have to think minimum 3 waves or pushes. Initial wave breakout, everyone piling on, and final profit taking. When on the end of the 2nd wave you must be prepared for the following 3rd, which is here I caught caught the other day on the long, tried a rescue against the push and had scout and 1st rescue trapped waiting for the fall to finish, only to try 2nd rescue late in the day when the move was over and the market looking for equilibrium and only regaining partial loss.

Following charts show detail.

Larger chart we are finishing 3rd wave down.

5min chart 3 waves up.

1min chart, 3 pushes.

fwiw.

a
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  • #4,528
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:55am Jul 31, 2008 11:55am
Quoting fti
Now that the bulls and bears had clashed, it time for the vultures to come a picking on the cracases of the dead bull , bears and mostly the pigs all over the grounds.

Not much will ensue now only mild calm.
For the picks of spoils of war.

regards
Hi, FTI.

I saw a similiar comment as yours.
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  • #4,529
  • Edited 12:17pm Jul 31, 2008 12:01pm | Edited 12:17pm
Quoting Green_David
Hi, FTI.

I saw a similiar comment as yours.
Hi
I had seen lots of these in my career span. Nothing new, Now every body talk BS.

For you, if you don't tame your ways, you WILL be listed in the casualty list one day.

regards

watch it now, paul is casting his spell again.

Move the dead and wounded out to the appropraite support areas.
Those who still can walk and fire a weapon, go to counter marked BANK and replenish you weapons, we may have another battle at hand. Those fearless , you go to frontline. those prudent, go 2nd or 3 rd wave attack depending on which company you belong to.
Battlestations !
Inserted Video


It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
  • #4,530
  • Edited 12:32pm Jul 31, 2008 12:18pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting auxesis
Hi all,

It's been a very busy day today. I dont want to get into positioning or todays trades, and if Fti, thinks this post is in appropriate I will delete.

But when I think of impulses I have to think minimum 3 waves or pushes. Initial wave breakout, everyone piling on, and final profit taking. When on the end of the 2nd wave you must be prepared for the following 3rd, which is here I caught caught the other day on the long, tried a rescue against the push and had scout and 1st rescue trapped waiting for the fall to finish, only to try 2nd rescue late in the day when the move was over and the market looking for equilibrium and only regaining partial loss.

Following charts show detail.

Larger chart we are finishing 3rd wave down.

5min chart 3 waves up.

1min chart, 3 pushes.

fwiw.

a
auxesesis,
You have a of of information up on the chart and I appreciate seeing how the waves applied to what we just went through since yesterday since I havn't had time to study about waves.
One thing though I hope your not trying to feel the market as it moves with all those lines up there as it would seem to take the focus off of the feel and on to the lines which would dull your senses, at least it would to me.

Am I losing my mind this was in response to a chart I thought I seen which is no longer there.
Was one removed?
If not sorry.
I'd better call it the day.
  • #4,531
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:24pm Jul 31, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting Green_David
OK. FTI, please see the chart. Maybe it is a reference for all the friends.
Did I trade against the impulse? Would you give me my job back then?

If my positions exposed into news, as long as the size is so small that even 100 pips didn't hurt my book, that is OK. Maybe I am wrong, I will think about this again.

Oanda platform, the spreads during news will expand to 20~40 pips, my platform is OK, but I will get requotes, you get the fill with bad price a lot of times.
Hello,

First of all, I can not teach anyone to trade.
But let me do a observation.

What you call "sign of weakness" , could also be a breath
to take momentum or capitulation other participants who were on the same side that your position.
You didn't call the bar where you closed rescues "sign of weakness" ...

What I mean is that, in my limited experience, one bar is not reliable in the 5' chart. I only say that because I fell into the trap many times...

I don't intend to offend you.

Rgs,

Textor
  • #4,532
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:31pm Jul 31, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting lilpip
auxesesis,
You have a of of information up on the chart and I appreciate seeing how the waves applied to what we just went through since yesterday since I havn't had time to study about waves.
One thing though I hope your not trying to feel the market as it moves with all those lines up there as it would seem to take the focus off of the feel and on to the lines which would dull your senses.
Lilpip,

The lines are just there for illustration, it's just some thoughts I have about structure, seeing the chart as a battlefield. Fti had mentioned the other day about the dangers of increasing skew on the 3rd push, to me I have to keep it in the back of my head when feeling a reversal on the end of the 2nd that the posibilty is there for the move to continue.

Just my take, some tid bits from Mr. Hills "Ultimate trading guide" The market moves in impulse and corrective ranges. If you can position your self on the opposite side of the range for the next impulse, is ideal.

regards,

a
  • #4,533
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:55pm Jul 31, 2008 12:55pm
Quoting textor
Hello,

First of all, I can not teach anyone to trade.
But let me do a observation.

What you call "sign of weakness" , could also be a breath
to take momentum or capitulation other participants who were on the same side that your position.
You didn't call the bar where you closed rescues "sign of weakness" ...

What I mean is that, in my limited experience, one bar is not reliable in the 5' chart. I only say that because I fell into the trap many times...

I don't intend to offend you.

Rgs,

Textor
Thanks. No offence at all.

It is true that weakness sign could be a small pullback. It means the price met some resistance. There must be a top right? And there must be an operateable pullback to rescue after 100 pips increase normally.

Why I closed the rescue positions, because I could not know before -- how the price would develop after reaching 5640. You could see some slow-down at that time. To avoid possilbe rescue positions trapped I have to close even I could also miss more positive pips. This is the risk. What I can do? I take more profits because taking more risks.
  • #4,534
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:02pm Jul 31, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting Green_David
Thanks. No offence at all.

It is true that weakness sign could be a small pullback. It means the price met some resistance. There must be a top right? And there must be an operateable pullback to rescue after 100 pips increase normally.

Why I closed the rescue positions, because I could not know before -- how the price would develop after reaching 5640. You could see some slow-down at that time. To avoid possilbe rescue positions trapped I have to close even I could also miss more positive pips. This is the risk. What I can do? I take more profits because taking more risks.
The problem with that is someday you will get trapped on the wrong side and price will not look back. It dosent have to stop at 100 pips she can run 150/200 find a tight range and break for another 150/200 never giving the chance to rescue.

Any attempt to mount a rescue in the above mentioned, would trap the rescue to boot.
  • #4,535
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:06pm Jul 31, 2008 1:06pm
Quoting fti
Hi
I had seen lots of these in my career span. Nothing new, Now every body talk BS.

For you, if you don't tame your ways, you WILL be listed in the casualty list one day.

regards

watch it now, paul is casting his spell again.

Move the dead and wounded out to the appropraite support areas.
Those who still can walk and fire a weapon, go to counter marked BANK and replenish you weapons, we may have another battle at hand. Those fearless , you go to frontline. those prudent, go 2nd or 3 rd wave attack depending on which company you belong to.
Battlestations !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyI2tX6UCKo

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
Hi, FTI:

Seems Paulson didn't say anything significant to forex market.

Your advice is taken. My account was like today's E/U, roller-coaster style. This month is OK, steable.

I have only maximum 2.6 years of part-time trading forex experiences(I have ten years of stock investment, but it is a different thing). Wish I make more more progress. Thanks.

I will go to sleep. Tommorrow it will have another volitile day.

Hope you sleep early and see you tommorrow.
  • #4,536
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:14pm Jul 31, 2008 1:14pm
Quoting auxesis
The problem with that is someday you will get trapped on the wrong side and price will not look back. It dosent have to stop at 100 pips she can run 150/200 find a tight range and break for another 150/200 never giving the chance to rescue.

Any attempt to mount a rescue in the above mentioned, would trap the rescue to boot.
You are right, so the timing is very important and no over-stay in the market. And, second rescue is initiated after the first rescue has profits. If the second one fail, and the price behavior is not good, I close all rescues. And my trading direction is the same as dayly trend.

And becaus the reason you said, my rescue size was also small, therefore, to be honest, I didn't make much today.

See you tommorrow
  • #4,537
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:22pm Jul 31, 2008 1:22pm
Quoting Green_David
You are right, so the timing is very important and no over-stay in the market. And, second rescue is initiated after the first rescue has profits. If the second one fail, and the price behavior is not good, I close all rescues. And my trading direction is the same as dayly trend.

And becaus the reason you said, my rescue size was also small, therefore, to be honest, I didn't make much today.

See you tommorrow
To reduce size and protect your self before the news, is ok in my book as long as you understand that when she coils before the announcement, be ready for rockets, so any position remaining is likely to be big loser, big winner, forget trying to enter on the break as you will probably not get filled or you'll be sorry for the fill you get. Normally like Fti said, if your aleady have a good position in try to manage it, else bow out take the loss/gain and reestablish fight on better footing.

question, how do you know when the impulse is finished????

question #2, understanding the possible pitfalls was the risk today worth the actual or possible, gain????

regards,

a
  • #4,538
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:27pm Jul 31, 2008 1:27pm
Hi Guys - bye guys ;-)

I'm done fror the day. A lot of dynamic. A lot of pips in the book.
Although I was a little bit "piggish". After a successful rescue. I changed the direction to USD bull.

However ... Wish you all some nice trades till London open!

p.s.: I love our little "fti community"!
  • #4,539
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:36pm Jul 31, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting auxesis
Lilpip,

The lines are just there for illustration, it's just some thoughts I have about structure, seeing the chart as a battlefield. Fti had mentioned the other day about the dangers of increasing skew on the 3rd push, to me I have to keep it in the back of my head when feeling a reversal on the end of the 2nd that the posibilty is there for the move to continue.

Just my take, some tid bits from Mr. Hills "Ultimate trading guide" The market moves in impulse and corrective ranges. If you can position your self on the opposite side of the range for the next impulse, is ideal.

regards,

a
Sorry, the post wasn't intended for the charts that I see up now.
I look forward to the day when I have the time and find a book that gives a simple, direct and wellrounded overview on waves.
Also, it is a goal to know enough to position myself correctly once I understand them.

For now Its just understanding the terrain of the market during each session while focusing tic by tic as we get the 7 bar movement trying to have a feel for what its trying to do.
Then its the same all over again.
As I look at that statement, believe it or not, it sounds funny but even though its grueling, and been knocked around pretty hard, those 2 sentences has developed into a passion and it brings me happiness.
  • #4,540
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:40pm Jul 31, 2008 1:40pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Guys - bye guys ;-)

I'm done fror the day. A lot of dynamic. A lot of pips in the book.
Although I was a little bit "piggish". After a successful rescue. I changed the direction to USD bull.

However ... Wish you all some nice trades till London open!

p.s.: I love our little "fti community"!
Great battlefield decisions.
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