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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,501
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:04am Jul 31, 2008 10:04am
Quoting maheswara
wow , the whole swing got wiped out , yen still holding some though ...
luckily i was still a bull and not a pig.
  • #4,502
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:05am Jul 31, 2008 10:05am
Quoting DutchAngel
It is because David wanted to mount a rescue against the impulse i think.
I would do that later.. when the move ends.. like -300 pips, lol. that might be wrong but mounting a rescue sooner against impulse looks like a suicide mission in most cases.

fti suggested to cross it with another pair during news.. like if you hold short E/U and are afraid of news impact, take a long on G/U.. I think that is what he mentioned while he was in trouble, not sure if he did that.
  • #4,503
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:06am Jul 31, 2008 10:06am
Quoting Green_David
Come back USD bears! And deep into my territory, I will cut your heads again!

Now no loss at all!
Don't panic yet.
  • #4,504
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:07am Jul 31, 2008 10:07am
Quoting fti
So you took a gamble, ok now you are wrong.
So you wanna trade against impulse?
and mount rescue?
and that is protecting your book?

Please think clearly. before you decide to do any thing rash.
you are not careful.
If you were trading for me,
I am sorry but you just lost your job !

regards
I understand. It is absolutely right from risk point of view.

I am still an un-experienced and sometimes emotional trader.

1. After news anouncement, the price movement will be unpredictable, which will cause me emotional.
2. I keep some positions purposely so that it will force me trade just one direction.
3. And I try to avoid frenquet trading style because I don't scalp due to spread costs, slippage, requotes.
4. And the news also can bring favarable movement to the positions, isn't it?

And the unfavorabel news will not change the main trend, isn't it? It provides excellent oppotunity to attack. This is the same with "crisis" as you have told me --- dangrous opportunity.
  • #4,505
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:08am Jul 31, 2008 10:08am
Hi ALL,
what you had witness is the market vs fundamentals.
There is under current in the USD, it is very strong.
Much as we may find displeasure in the manipulation.
we however must yield to power, we are dealers.
so the USD bulls returns, manage it.
Please do not chase, choose favourable grounds,
manage the risk as your book allows. and after NY lunch, please.



regards
  • #4,506
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:10am Jul 31, 2008 10:10am
Quoting DutchAngel
It is because David wanted to mount a rescue against the impulse i think.
But this in last consequence means, you have to square your position before News cos you can't know markets direction. If against you it would result in a anti-impuls-rescue.

If you can't square (Or is it better to take the loss in front of a major news???), reduce the exposure strongly.

Crossing to another pair is nothing other than hedging. This way you can't lose, but you can't win as well. That's physicaly allmost the same, as taking the loss and starting a new trade after the dust has settled. Maybe not to take the loss has some psycholocical advantages for traders mind ...
  • #4,507
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:13am Jul 31, 2008 10:13am
Quoting MaMood
But this in last consquence means, you have to square your position before News cos you can't know markets direction. If against you it would result in a anti-impuls-rescue.

If you can't square (Or is it better to take the loss in front of a major news???), reduce the exposure strongly.
David took gamble through the news and then was hoping to rescue after the news.
He said
Why no a big increase again so to give me another chance to rescue? Come on..
after the news

If in profit i take it before major news, if not squared and just couple of pips down, I would take the loss. If scout is already in deepwater I would take gamble on news like David did, but would be very wary of rescuing the scout if my gamble didn't pay off.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #4,508
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:15am Jul 31, 2008 10:15am
scaling down...scout left average prc holding at 39. lets keep watching lads. lesson learnt. why short dollar in the first place? It was clear even after bad US data days ago, but usd was still harvested, so dont fight the big hands...

aussie has been taking quite alot of beating huh
  • #4,509
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:16am Jul 31, 2008 10:16am
Quoting fti
So you took a gamble, ok now you are wrong.
So you wanna trade against impulse?
and mount rescue?
and that is protecting your book?

Please think clearly. before you decide to do any thing rash.
you are not careful.
If you were trading for me,
I am sorry but you just lost your job !

regards
No. Fti,

I never trade against impulse.

I have learned this one year ago.

I will wait untill it slows down, lost tempo and showed weakness, and U-turn already on 5M chart, then I will begin true rescues.
  • #4,510
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:17am Jul 31, 2008 10:17am
Quoting Green_David
I understand. It is absolutely right from risk point of view.

I am still an un-experienced and sometimes emotional trader.

1. After news anouncement, the price movement will be unpredictable, which will cause me emotional.
2. I keep some positions purposely so that it will force me trade just one direction.
3. And I try to avoid frenquet trading style because I don't scalp due to spread costs, slippage, requotes.
4. And the news also can bring favarable movement to the positions, isn't it?

And the unfavorabel news will not change the main trend, isn't it? It provides excellent oppotunity to attack. This is the same with "crisis" as you have told me --- dangrous opportunity.
Hi David,
I am sorry to say that I cannot understand a word that you have pointed out.
Maybe if there is anyone who would care to explain. Please be my guest.

regards.
  • #4,511
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:21am Jul 31, 2008 10:21am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
what you had witness is the market vs fundamentals.
There is under current in the USD, it is very strong.
Much as we may find displeasure in the manipulation.
we however must yield to power, we are dealers.
so the USD bulls returns, manage it.
Please do not chase, choose favourable grounds,
manage the risk as your book allows. and after NY lunch, please.



regards
Thanks for the info., note taken on trading against impulse.
  • #4,512
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:21am Jul 31, 2008 10:21am
Quoting DutchAngel
David took gamble through the news and then was hoping to rescue after the news.
He said
Why no a big increase again so to give me another chance to rescue? Come on..
after the news
No. You misunderstand me.

I did rescues around 5680, 5660 closed @5640, I was expecting E/U could touch 5660~5680, so I could rescue again. That is why I said that.

I used to have disterous trades because the size was out of control and blind hope. The size is main reason.
  • #4,513
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:23am Jul 31, 2008 10:23am
Quoting Green_David
No. You misunderstand me.

I did rescues around 5680, 5660 closed @5640, I was expecting E/U could touch 5660~5680, so I could rescue again. That is why I said that.

I used to have disterous trades because the size was out of control and blind hope. The size is main reason.
Sorry David

I misunderstood you then.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #4,514
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:24am Jul 31, 2008 10:24am
Quoting Green_David
No. You misunderstand me.

I did rescues around 5680, 5660 closed @5640, I was expecting E/U could touch 5660~5680, so I could rescue again. That is why I said that.

I used to have disterous trades because the size was out of control and blind hope. The size is main reason.
yes david i remembered you were quite volatile then. hehe
hpefully you have sorted it out my friend
  • #4,515
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:31am Jul 31, 2008 10:31am
Quoting DutchAngel
It is because David wanted to mount a rescue against the impulse i think.
Hi DutchAngel,
You are correct.
Mounting rescues against impulse, is a sin.
It makes a mockery of what I have taught, in totality.
Its a sure way to kill your account.
it;s not whether it will, its just when?

Trading into MAJOR figure releases is another.


I wish there's some rocks for me to hide under now.

regards.
  • #4,516
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:34am Jul 31, 2008 10:34am
Quoting fti
Hi DutchAngel,
You are correct.
Mounting rescues against impulse, is a sin.
It makes a mokery of what I have taught, in totality.
Its a sure way to kill your account.
it;s not whether it will, its just when?


I wish there's some rocks for me to hide under now.

regards.
You can't judge the song by the singer.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #4,517
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:38am Jul 31, 2008 10:38am
Quoting jest1081
yes david i remembered you were quite volatile then. hehe
hpefully you have sorted it out my friend
Thanks, beside FTI, market tought me a lot also, but of couse, with expensive tuition fees.
  • #4,518
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:43am Jul 31, 2008 10:43am
some cool music...while you do the tango and salsa lads

Inserted Video

Inserted Video

Inserted Video


dollar debt
http://bp3.blogger.com/_rWY3qGfe6gc/.../Picture+1.png
http://www.markit.com/information/pr...ry_graphs.html
  • #4,519
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:51am Jul 31, 2008 10:51am
All kingdoms appear in sync, at least making them easier to follow.
  • #4,520
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:52am Jul 31, 2008 10:52am
Hi there,

may be marked passage of the report is the explanation of this strange moves today. But it may also be just Bullshit ...

Misread on GDP Sends Dollar on Wild Goose Chase
Donnerstag, 31. Juli 2008 17:48:00


New York, July 31. It was all about first impressions when it came to today's market reactions to US GDP data. The dollar got slammed initially due to lower-than-forecast Q2 and Q4 07 results, but eventually folks dug more deeply into the report to find that a drawdown in inventories trimmed Q2 GDP by a whopping 1.92%. This is good news because slender inventories means less overhang in the current and following quarters and greater likelihood that GDP will remain positive, also helped along by strong exports and falling imports. The recent drop in oil prices should help with the latter as well. Regional PMI data has on balance been better than expected today, but USD/CHF traders are only willing to take price so far before tomorrow's US employment and ISM releases. Last at 1.0493, offers are seen at 1.0520 and 1.0540. Major buyers noted today at 1.0405 but we'd need some bad news to get back there before tomorrow's releases. Swiss CPI was near forecast o/n and the SNB is a coin-toss to either raise rates or hold steady in September. [i][email protected][/i] /pcw
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