It appears to me that the statement made by the G7 is the same. No harsh words about the yen. I would think the Yen would get crushed on the open as people race back into the carry trades. I positioned for this on the close. What do you guys think? Im surprised their are no threads on this already.
- #4
- Feb 10, 2007 9:54am Feb 10, 2007 9:54am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
It appears to me that the statement made by the G7 is the same. No harsh words about the yen. I would think the Yen would get crushed on the open as people race back into the carry trades. I positioned for this on the close. What do you guys think? Im surprised their are no threads on this already.
I didn't have the idea to revert some of these losses by trading the carries on this Monday, and this is what I'm going to do.
AS I'm not familiar with them, I'd appreciate if you share your entry and TP for me to check it.
Thanks in advance...
- César
- #5
- Feb 10, 2007 10:10am Feb 10, 2007 10:10am
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Millionaire Traders - Chapter 8 | 139 Posts
Hey Roland, congrats on the thread. I've been suffering with this G7 theme for weeks, when the carries started moving for no reason, my Cable positions smoked out because of the carries and then came the news that some guys was on the wires panicking the market.
I didn't have the idea to revert some of these losses by trading the carries on this Monday, and this is what I'm going to do.
AS I'm not familiar with them, I'd appreciate if you share your entry and TP for me to check it.
Thanks in advance...
- César
I just want to say upfront that anything can happen on the open Sunday night. I am giving you my best prediction and what I positioned for. My opinion is many newbies & others positioned for a strong statement from the G-7. Others liquidated due to the risk over the weekend. I would imagine now that the "risk" is gone people will pile back into the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and other high interest carry trades.
I think this will be a short lived rally but it's possible to see EUR/JPY rally close to 160. If this occurs USD/JPY will like follow suit. I would like to be short once stops above 122 are cleared out.
Either way it should be a volatile open on Sunday night in the JPY crosses.
FYI ensure you DO NOT put in any limit orders on the open. You can be slipped huge amounts and will most likely get the worst price of the day due to the weekend gap. I trade on a point and shoot system so this is not an issue.
Good luck,
Ro
- #7
- Feb 10, 2007 10:38am Feb 10, 2007 10:38am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
- #8
- Feb 10, 2007 10:40am Feb 10, 2007 10:40am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
G7: Japan Fin Min: G7 Reached "Proper Conclusion" On Forex
Sat, Feb 10 2007, 17:50 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
G7: Japan Fin Min: G7 Reached "Proper Conclusion" On Forex
ESSEN, Germany -(Dow Jones)- Finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrialized countries reached the "proper conclusion" on their closing statement on currencies, Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said Saturday.
He said he had explained to his G7 counterparts during their meetings over the past two days that foreign exchange rates should reflect each country's economic fundamentals, and that the Japanese economy is recovering steadily with stable prices.
Japan was able to gain other nations' understanding on its stance, Omi said.
Earlier Saturday, the G7's closing statement largely maintained its wording on currencies. But it also said that G7 members "are confident that the implications of these developments will be recognized by market participants and will be incorporated in their assessment of risks."
-By Natsuo Nishio, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2929; [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 10, 2007 12:50 ET (17:50 GMT)
- #9
- Feb 10, 2007 10:57am Feb 10, 2007 10:57am
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Mmmm pips. | 1,418 Posts
After the mess this guys made in fx, they should end G7 with something like "Long Yen, everybody!" or "Sorry 'bout the mess, cut your bears lose"
IOW, GO LONG!
Mr. Trend
- #10
- Feb 10, 2007 11:05am Feb 10, 2007 11:05am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
LOL. Exactly. I love these, "[G7 members] ... are confident that the implications of these developments will be recognized by market participants and will be incorporated in their assessment of risks," statements.
IOW, GO LONG!
- #16
- Feb 10, 2007 2:49pm Feb 10, 2007 2:49pm
I am not talking predictions here, just probabilities.
Given the G7 statement which was even softer than I expected them to put out. They were talking hard line 2 or 3 weeks ago and their words have been getting softer and softer so that they ended up with a positively wimpy statement. There is a very high probability that the carry trade pairs will appreciate rapidly, then there will probably be at least some degree of retracement.
Given that GBP/JPY is the foremost carry trade pair, it is probable that this pair will appreciate significantly and with its relationship to other pairs, so will UJ and to a lesser degree cable. It is very difficult to come up with a scenario in which GBP/JPY appreciates significantly and cable depreciates at the same time. It is probable that cable will exhibit movements similar to pounyen although very likely less extreme. The more UJ moves up the less cable is likely to be moving up a large amount.
My indicators were already showing a probable cable and fiber long, and this news will only increase the probability of that move occurring.
You know where my money will be.
Given the G7 statement which was even softer than I expected them to put out. They were talking hard line 2 or 3 weeks ago and their words have been getting softer and softer so that they ended up with a positively wimpy statement. There is a very high probability that the carry trade pairs will appreciate rapidly, then there will probably be at least some degree of retracement.
Given that GBP/JPY is the foremost carry trade pair, it is probable that this pair will appreciate significantly and with its relationship to other pairs, so will UJ and to a lesser degree cable. It is very difficult to come up with a scenario in which GBP/JPY appreciates significantly and cable depreciates at the same time. It is probable that cable will exhibit movements similar to pounyen although very likely less extreme. The more UJ moves up the less cable is likely to be moving up a large amount.
My indicators were already showing a probable cable and fiber long, and this news will only increase the probability of that move occurring.
You know where my money will be.