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AUD/USD

  • #181
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:36pm Jul 30, 2008 9:36pm
Quoting Clouds
No, it's all good. but on your chart, notice the highs are getting higher, and lows are getting higher ,so far
With out a doubt the prevailing trend is up.
  • #182
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:39pm Jul 30, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting Clouds
No, it's all good. but on your chart, notice the highs are getting higher, and lows are getting higher ,so far
By looking at the pic...and let talk abt WK TF...
There was a trend reversal by Inverted hammer confrimed by a bearish candle..which is last week candle....

I vote for the SHORT...


http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1217471084

sonic
  • #183
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:43pm Jul 30, 2008 9:43pm
well I made 30 pips long so I'm going to lock in half put the rest at BE and call it a night happy trading
  • #184
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:45pm Jul 30, 2008 9:45pm
Quoting renegade
Just reading the last couple of posts. I guess a long off the 9410 area would have been a good play. By the rules.
renegade,
well you may need to go back more than a couple of pages i guess. hehe.

@ sonic,
no idea bro. maybe? hehe

@clouds,
Yeap uptrend. but that does not reason why things should be up (or down for that matter). That should be left for the market to decide. Trade what you see, not what you perceive should happen
  • #185
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:47pm Jul 30, 2008 9:47pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
By looking at the pic...and let talk abt WK TF...
There was a trend reversal by Inverted hammer confrimed by a bearish candle..which is last week candle....

I vote for the SHORT...


http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1217471084

sonic
Exactly! This is what I'm looking at. A long from the 9410 would have been good. And if it pushes through the 9450 area great for the longs . I'm just watching my longs right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aus3.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #186
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:51pm Jul 30, 2008 9:51pm
Quoting renegade
Exactly! This is what I'm looking at. A long from the 9410 would have been good. And if it pushes through the 9450 area great for the longs . I'm just watching my longs right now.

Nice chart. Fundamentals are starting to align with technicals. This is the start of a nice correction or even a new trend.

9525 won't be broken. Shorts are the play, sell rallies into horrible retail and credit figs.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #187
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:57pm Jul 30, 2008 9:57pm
texasforex,

im with you but,

ive been searching for some discounts, but market keeps getting lower at a pacy rate. I din get a fill at 600, and i hate chasing those breakouts, hope she retraces abit. Im still averaging at 9768, its killing me that i cant size up my positions.
  • #188
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:58pm Jul 30, 2008 9:58pm
also take a look @ AUS/CAD Daily & 4hr charts. & EUR/AUD. There is plenty of good things coming for Aussie holders
  • #189
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:59pm Jul 30, 2008 9:59pm
This .pdf report published at Danske Macro Research may be of use or insightful.

The major reduction in global USD short positions are driving choppy moves.
I am concerned the technicals deteriorated and event drivers will dominate the coming sessions for the month of August. If we shift from the speculation attitude toward the fair value interest rate differential driver what can we expect for parity relationships going forward?

FreeTrader
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf IMM.pdf   542 KB | 379 downloads
  • #190
  • Jul 30, 2008 10:08pm Jul 30, 2008 10:08pm
freetrader,

int rates vs cheap usd? wonder which favors? some say buy value, some say buy low....

usd int rates were speculated to go up, what abt aussie rates?

so far, the short charts are strong shorts...buyers suggested to keep their stops deep.
  • #191
  • Jul 30, 2008 10:29pm Jul 30, 2008 10:29pm
Jest,


int rates vs cheap usd?

We will see some strong USD GDP numbers tomorrow...economic stimulus; as the event value we get an impulse response; fast market direction, and for the protective stop limit people we can see price action trade past their protective level.

wonder which favors? some say buy value, some say buy low....

With us moving into the vacation month, value buyers might have orders on the book.

Would you attempt to pick a bottom in this market? I never pick tops and bottoms. I go with the flow.

usd int rates were speculated to go up, what abt aussie rates?

The yield curve is no longer inverted, successful GSE bailout, economic growth overheated in emerging economies...Aussie moving toward cut mode (at least the market will start pricing in a possible cut)

so far, the short charts are strong shorts...buyers suggested to keep their stops deep.

I cannot buy into selling pressure. I will sell into selling pressure. Have you watched the order flow of late? I think the support is iceberg orders, once we absorb the flow the tide will go out. Do you think we are seeing lower watermarks? Do you think the last move is mean reversion or is it more trend based?
  • #192
  • Jul 30, 2008 10:56pm Jul 30, 2008 10:56pm
Will avoid any long here ( today,take only shorts ( norisking for 100pips but keep minimum at a time ) with usd support news today specially Advance GDP q/q which is supposed positive .

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #193
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:16pm Jul 30, 2008 11:16pm
Quoting fontu
Will avoid any long here ( today,take only shorts ( norisking for 100pips but keep minimum at a time ) with usd support news today specially Advance GDP q/q which is supposed positive .

fontu

Couldnt agree with you more sir. I said from 9800 this pair is well over bought I see this back to the norm at 89-91 by end of august 08. Look back at the weekly's and you will see.
  • #194
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:58pm Jul 30, 2008 11:58pm
RBA meeting is next Tues and the market will be waiting to take direction from their statement.

The data coming out is building pressure for rates cuts sooner:

http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...-31037,00.html

anyone know where I can see the number of trades/positions. Buy/sell/hold orders?
  • #195
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:04am Jul 31, 2008 12:04am
shorted au from 40
looking 50pips
  • #196
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:12am Jul 31, 2008 4:12am
As you can see from the charts below, both AUD/JPY and AUD/USD are trading just at their daily pivot points.
Just take a look at other yen pairs + analyze that today's USD positions can become strong in some hours -> I doubt they could break it, and down move till S1 is more possible.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ pp.jpg Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AU pp.jpg Size: 53 KB
  • #197
  • Jul 31, 2008 8:48am Jul 31, 2008 8:48am
Whipping left n right@@@
  • #198
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:06am Jul 31, 2008 11:06am
Quoting TexasforEX
Nice chart. Fundamentals are starting to align with technicals. This is the start of a nice correction or even a new trend.

9525 won't be broken. Shorts are the play, sell rallies into horrible retail and credit figs.
very steep descending channel has formed, spike to 9475 bounced right off it. shorts looking goooooooooood baby
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd4hr.gif Size: 17 KB
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #199
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:23pm Jul 31, 2008 12:23pm
As you can see from the chart below this post, AUD/USD has a tight channel in the upside movement =70 pips. As it has reached down side and there is no signal of breaking it + S1 level directly under the lower line (0.9393) + 2 hourly white candles -> I opened a long position with a small risk (sl is 0.9389) til R1 level 0.946

The breakdown of the triangle may depend on tommorrow's NFP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 1h 31.07.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #200
  • Jul 31, 2008 7:22pm Jul 31, 2008 7:22pm
Quoting TexasforEX
very steep descending channel has formed, spike to 9475 bounced right off it. shorts looking goooooooooood baby
Looks like all those shorts you put on are paying off.
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