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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #4,801
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:32pm Jul 29, 2008 2:32pm
Quoting Lou
Yes I know this. But my point is... it is a conflict of interest.

For example: I see that you are from Spain. If your economy was in trouble would you not want it to get better? Would you bet against it getting better? Could you want it to get better but bet against it getting better at the same time?

I realize that our small trading positions have no effect on the market or the economy. But in wanting my economy to get better, it is a conflict of interest for me to take long Eur/Usd positions.

This is what I am wrestling with.
Well I agree with Raz, in the general scheme of things, your forex trading or retail forex trading in general will make no difference. I am concerned about greenhouse effect but I still drive a car because me not doing so will not help the problem in any noticeable way.

I live in the UK and our economy is also in trouble. I shall do my bit soon by voting out the clowns in office who mismanage it. Then I will feel good about myself.
  • #4,802
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:40pm Jul 29, 2008 2:40pm
I'd appreciate any analyses on the current EUR/USD situation from Jacko's turtles, here's a chart showing that price is now at the bottom of the uptrend channel, which would suggest a continuation of the trend is about to resume, what are you seeing?

Thanks
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Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #4,803
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:43pm Jul 29, 2008 2:43pm
hi guys,
dont worry about you country economy because it is allways a big deal for the big lions. just earn some pips, keep them, and sleep as a baby. Im argentinian, i live in the worse economy in the world, and i know exactly what im talking about. keep going E/U long
abd.
ps:sry about my english
  • #4,804
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:48pm Jul 29, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
I'd appreciate any analyses on the current EUR/USD situation from Jacko's turtles, here's a chart showing that price is now at the bottom of the uptrend channel, which would suggest a continuation of the trend is about to resume, what are you seeing?

Thanks
Im not a jakos turtles but im expecting to reach the 1.54 to go long
abd
  • #4,805
  • Edited 2:57pm Jul 29, 2008 2:54pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
I'd appreciate any analyses on the current EUR/USD situation from Jacko's turtles, here's a chart showing that price is now at the bottom of the uptrend channel, which would suggest a continuation of the trend is about to resume, what are you seeing?

Thanks
This is how I see it...lets see where we go from here

ah blue highlighted area is fib confluence
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Never say never.
  • #4,806
  • Jul 29, 2008 3:12pm Jul 29, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
I'd appreciate any analyses on the current EUR/USD situation from Jacko's turtles, here's a chart showing that price is now at the bottom of the uptrend channel, which would suggest a continuation of the trend is about to resume, what are you seeing?

Thanks
hmmm, I see a lot of lines is what I see.

Anyway, it's summer time and she's confused. Stops have been hit left and right. So be patient, let her show you the way.

A funny quote from a professional trader:
Confucius he say: “if prices resemble avalanche on mountain path, retrace steps & walk smoother road"
Take a report.
  • #4,807
  • Jul 29, 2008 4:01pm Jul 29, 2008 4:01pm
Here is what I have been looking at.

The yellow MA is the 100 day, the black the 200 day, computed on the median (HL/2).

The 100 day has been holding for quite a while now.

We will eventually test the 200.

I am looking for an opportunity to go long. I expect a confirmation signal sometime tonight.

James
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  • #4,808
  • Jul 29, 2008 4:10pm Jul 29, 2008 4:10pm
look at this chart or look at Razles chart.
We are and have been in a wide trading range for some 6 months now.
Does not mean we will stay in it but no one really knows when the break will come. We are currently smack dab in the middle of the range,
1.6030 area for the top and 1.5275 area for the bottom.
(755 pip range)
This is a pattern that repeats itself if you scroll back on a weekly chart. You see it over and over. Yes price does eventually break out one way or another.
Yes it is more difficult for a trending method to take pips in a range but it is a fairly big range.
JMO but I always start my day looking at the weekly chart just to remind myself where the pair is in the big picture of things.
It is simply too easy to lose yourself in the shorter term charts and forget where you are at if you do not keep tabs on it.
You can bet your sweet *** that every big bank & big trading concern are very aware of the same Support & Resistance areas that you can see if you look.

oops forgot the chart!!
  • #4,809
  • Jul 29, 2008 4:11pm Jul 29, 2008 4:11pm
chart
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  • #4,810
  • Jul 29, 2008 4:17pm Jul 29, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting Lou
Yes, that is very true. But betting against the dollar and simultaneously wanting the stock market to go up and the cost of living to go down is my dilemma.
Lou I think this post identifies your real dilemma.
I don't see someone in this post willing to take what the market is offering but someone wanting to have the market bend to their wants. just what I am reading here.
  • #4,811
  • Jul 29, 2008 4:21pm Jul 29, 2008 4:21pm
Lou,

It's so true. I am not a US citizen but permanently reside in USA and raising my children here. Even though I go long for E/U in forex but I always want USD to be strong and US economy to revive for us and for our next generation. Such a conflict of interest. But if betting brings USD down, I would rather prefer to loose than seeing US economy going into drain. May be to boost my moral and at the same time to have fun, I need to start trading with GBP/JPY, although they are all interconnected with USD.

FX_California
Quoting Lou
Here is a personal concern of mine, being a USA citizen. I think about this from time to time, and it has always been in the back of my mind. Today, it came up again.

I care about the US economy, how can I not care? A bad US economy negatively effects literally everyone I know and love. It effects me every day. I want the price of food and gas to go down. I want the value in my retirement accounts to go up. I am going to do things, whatever possible at my level, to help the economy improve. Maybe that is as simple as driving smarter. Or maybe it is voting for the candidates that will make a better economy happen. But why shouldn't I try to improve conditions in my country and in my life.

However...... in doing what I can and hoping, looking for, an improving US economy, won't this also mean a stronger dollar? Please instruct me if I am wrong about this.... that a stronger economy will make a stronger dollar.

Therefore... if the dollar gets stronger, won't it mean a change in trend for the Eur/Usd to a downward bias? Please instruct me if I am wrong.

Yet if I continue to go long the Eur/Usd am I not 'betting' against myself?

I had to get this off my chest.


Lou
  • #4,812
  • Edited 4:52pm Jul 29, 2008 4:26pm | Edited 4:52pm
That could well be a three line strike on your charts Tommyd, a BEOB candle that recovers to the height of the first bearish candle in the pattern would confirm, Bulkowski gives it an 84% reliability. Or its 3 Black crows!

Interestingly enough my weekly looks a bit different..
Attached Image
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #4,813
  • Jul 29, 2008 4:50pm Jul 29, 2008 4:50pm
Interesting... after reading the other post regarding the market range I put a line at the bottom of the range, and it coincides with the 200 MA within 5 pips.
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  • #4,814
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:03pm Jul 30, 2008 2:03pm
Hi everyone.

Seems like today is an important day, doesnt it?
We have just touched the july 07 weekly trendline. Its a one year old TL. Price has bounced off and now is 50 pips above it. Will it hold? If it doesnt, we can expect the bottom of the trending channel at 1.53. If we loose that too, then we are in serious trouble. LOL.
Of course none of us can predict the market but I would love to see it bouncing off this weekly TL, heading straight up to 1.7....LOL. Either this or testing 1.53 again.......
Just my thoughts, seems like we will have an answer to that by tomorrow....

Cheers
''I am too sexy for my pips, too sexy for my pips, too sexy yeahhh...''
  • #4,815
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:52pm Jul 30, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting tommyd
Lou I think this post identifies your real dilemma.
I don't see someone in this post willing to take what the market is offering but someone wanting to have the market bend to their wants. just what I am reading here.
Tommyd...

Maybe I did not explain it well enough. If I go long Eur/Usd per this thread, then I will be looking for all of the upcoming announcements to be against the dollar, so I can make money in my account. But if that happens, then the US economy is getting worse and worse. So I lose and everyone in the US loses too. I loose in many other ways... higher prices, job insecurity, weaker dollar, retirement plan fund going down.

Since you live in the US wouldnt you want the economy to get better? Or would you want it to tank, so that you made some money going long.
  • #4,816
  • Jul 30, 2008 3:19pm Jul 30, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting Lou
Tommyd...

Maybe I did not explain it well enough. If I go long Eur/Usd per this thread, then I will be looking for all of the upcoming announcements to be against the dollar, so I can make money in my account. But if that happens, then the US economy is getting worse and worse. So I lose and everyone in the US loses too. I loose in many other ways... higher prices, job insecurity, weaker dollar, retirement plan fund going down.

Since you live in the US wouldnt you want the economy to get better? Or would you want it to tank, so that you made some money going long.
If you are going to trade currencies you HAVE got remain unbiased, I know this is a difficult thing for some but you are here to make money not take a national stand.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #4,817
  • Jul 30, 2008 4:23pm Jul 30, 2008 4:23pm
Hey Folks! (and Jacko if he's still around)

I'm a newbie's newbie trader that's looking to learn Forex trading. I was pointed at this thread by someone on another forum who happens to be a turtle.

I was hoping to finish reading the thread before I posted here but I can't help myself there's just TOO MUCH good information! After reading the first 200 pages or so of this thread I feel that I have an understanding of whats going on at least on paper, (making pips regularly will be another story). I've learned about money-management, I knew what support and resistance were but I couldn't recognize them, now I feel comfortable drawing TL's.

Frankly this all just seems to make sense!

I look forward to (hopefully) contributing to the thread and as well getting feedback on my ideas!

-David
  • #4,818
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:37pm Jul 30, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting Lou
Tommyd...

Maybe I did not explain it well enough. If I go long Eur/Usd per this thread, then I will be looking for all of the upcoming announcements to be against the dollar, so I can make money in my account. But if that happens, then the US economy is getting worse and worse. So I lose and everyone in the US loses too. I loose in many other ways... higher prices, job insecurity, weaker dollar, retirement plan fund going down.

Since you live in the US wouldnt you want the economy to get better? Or would you want it to tank, so that you made some money going long.
Lou, You explained it just fine the first time, Honestly I hear what you are saying.

The market itself cares zip with what I want or what I care about.
However,
Much of what I want can be had with what the market allows me to take out of it if I interact with it in a reasonable manner.

I believe someone said it helps to reduce trading to a numbers game. Its only numbers,
I would advise against attaching emotion or morality to the numbers. I can assure you that attaching emotion to trading is a recipe for inflicting severe damage to your trading account.

good luck with your dilemma.
  • #4,819
  • Edited 8:36pm Jul 30, 2008 8:20pm | Edited 8:36pm
Quoting Lou
Tommyd...

Maybe I did not explain it well enough. If I go long Eur/Usd per this thread, then I will be looking for all of the upcoming announcements to be against the dollar, so I can make money in my account. But if that happens, then the US economy is getting worse and worse. So I lose and everyone in the US loses too. I loose in many other ways... higher prices, job insecurity, weaker dollar, retirement plan fund going down.

Since you live in the US wouldnt you want the economy to get better? Or would you want it to tank, so that you made some money going long.
Lou, it maybe it help if u think in terms of off-setting (a bit like carbon emissions). If u are successful at trading and its against the dollar u will have more cash to spend so helping the economy Either way your win/spend will not effect much.
  • #4,820
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:32pm Jul 30, 2008 9:32pm
Quoting Lou
Tommyd...

Maybe I did not explain it well enough. If I go long Eur/Usd per this thread, then I will be looking for all of the upcoming announcements to be against the dollar, so I can make money in my account. But if that happens, then the US economy is getting worse and worse. So I lose and everyone in the US loses too. I loose in many other ways... higher prices, job insecurity, weaker dollar, retirement plan fund going down.

Since you live in the US wouldnt you want the economy to get better? Or would you want it to tank, so that you made some money going long.

I wouldn't worry about it Lou, EVEN if you're maintaining an account that trades ten full size lots per trade ($1,000,000) that trade comprises 1/1000th of a percent of the total daily volume of the market..... (according to numbers I've read in the last few weeks daily volume is 1.5 trillion or so)

I don't think that million is gonna do much....

-David
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