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  • #2,361
  • Jul 29, 2008 8:02am Jul 29, 2008 8:02am
Quoting jupiter_peak
I might be observing a MACD divergence on weekly.

I spotted this just yesterday since I usually don't trade this pair.

Would you agree with this divergence? Possible reversal coming?

1) I see it has been very bullish for a long time;
2) I see as oil has come down; stronger USD indication across the board.

The two reasons above make me think a reversal is coming up.

Cheers and happy hunting.

JP.
Absolute possible, well spotted. I made an post regarding oil in trading room, and thought it could be posted in here since not all of you can make comment in there, so I share the same view regarding oil.

I think we are in a critical price-area on oil, technically speaking. I would find it strange if the $ "suddenly" would recover when we give a thought to all the financial mess US is facing. Although, I'm pretty poor with FA, I must say it would be strange if the US economy would recover so fast.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,362
  • Jul 29, 2008 8:04am Jul 29, 2008 8:04am
Quoting belekas
Anyone trading this breakout on the geppy 1hr?

Was good for a few pips
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,363
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:08pm Jul 29, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting aediaz1
Absolute possible, well spotted. I made an post regarding oil in trading room, and thought it could be posted in here since not all of you can make comment in there, so I share the same view regarding oil.

I think we are in a critical price-area on oil, technically speaking. I would find it strange if the $ "suddenly" would recover when we give a thought to all the financial mess US is facing. Although, I'm pretty poor with FA, I must say it would be strange if the US economy would recover so fast.

Hi Aediaz,

Thanks for the upraisal.

I know this is not the topic of your thread but I have insisted a lot with some traders and got flamed by many trying to argue and draw a parallel between the USD and OIL prices.

A lot of traders almost yelled at me when I wrote about it on UJ and EU threads.

I am not an FA "expert". Actually I don't even want to be a specialist in FA. But since we are dealing with OIL here, 2 things came to my mind immediatly when I saw that long tme channel being broken down.

1) Coincidence or not, since Barack Obama's visit to the middle east begun, with him talking about withdrawing from Iraq, no war with Iran and so forth, price fell about USD14.00. Now, every "expert" would come forward and shout out that OIL would reach USD200.00. Frankly, nobody was expecting the break of such a bullish channel.
I am not a politician and I don't follow politics since I live in a very corrupt country. But denying that Mr. Obama represent change and will end the long lasting era of the Bush family war-obstruction-to-gain-from-oil-prices policy, is like shuting one's eyes to reality.
I do think his visit to the middle east has contributed a whole lot to lower oil prices. He is the virtual president of the US. We have to keep that in mind.

2) The second reason is plain and simple: supply X demand. As oil prices surge, less people are consuming it and therefore less demand for such a commodity. Also, in the long run, we could see alternative fuel playing an enormous factor.

I don't like to bore you with none of this, but I had to let it go out. This will be my last post on Oil FA here.

Attached, my views on Oil. A few supports have been broken. Price right now @ the 122.23 support area seen on daily. Next support @116.37.

Price travelling inside a nice channel as observed in H4.

Later...

JP.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: oil_d1_29_07_2008_support.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #2,364
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:41pm Jul 29, 2008 1:41pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
There u have it. Trendlines not being rays...

Hope this helps.

Wish u al the best.
JP.
Ah it was there in front me the whole time. Not a beginner by any means, just never saw it done in MT4 before. Many thanks!
  • #2,365
  • Jul 29, 2008 3:36pm Jul 29, 2008 3:36pm
Half of FF is screaming to go long in Cable...

I doubt that both on intra-day and longer term.

I see a divergence on monthly chart and I see a huge, long triangle forming on daily ( two long maroon lines).

So I have strong reason to believe price is headed down. Actually, I observed today a very bullish channel being broken on daily.


Lets see how this one goes.

Cheers.

JP.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_usd_mn_29_07_2008_divergence.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,366
  • Jul 29, 2008 7:29pm Jul 29, 2008 7:29pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Ah it was there in front me the whole time. Not a beginner by any means, just never saw it done in MT4 before. Many thanks!
No prob. Always trying to help.

Hope to see your posts often here.

Cheers.

JP.
  • #2,367
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:14pm Jul 29, 2008 10:14pm
Havent seen this one before.

I love the PA trading.

I do the same but on a 10 sec line chart.

S&R lines are the best indicators.

Happy Trading!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,368
  • Jul 30, 2008 4:47am Jul 30, 2008 4:47am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hi Aediaz,

Thanks for the upraisal.

I know this is not the topic of your thread but I have insisted a lot with some traders and got flamed by many trying to argue and draw a parallel between the USD and OIL prices.

A lot of traders almost yelled at me when I wrote about it on UJ and EU threads.

I am not an FA "expert". Actually I don't even want to be a specialist in FA. But since we are dealing with OIL here, 2 things came to my mind immediatly when I saw that long tme channel being broken down.

1) Coincidence or not, since Barack Obama's visit to the middle east begun, with him talking about withdrawing from Iraq, no war with Iran and so forth, price fell about USD14.00. Now, every "expert" would come forward and shout out that OIL would reach USD200.00. Frankly, nobody was expecting the break of such a bullish channel.
I am not a politician and I don't follow politics since I live in a very corrupt country. But denying that Mr. Obama represent change and will end the long lasting era of the Bush family war-obstruction-to-gain-from-oil-prices policy, is like shuting one's eyes to reality.
I do think his visit to the middle east has contributed a whole lot to lower oil prices. He is the virtual president of the US. We have to keep that in mind.

2) The second reason is plain and simple: supply X demand. As oil prices surge, less people are consuming it and therefore less demand for such a commodity. Also, in the long run, we could see alternative fuel playing an enormous factor.

I don't like to bore you with none of this, but I had to let it go out. This will be my last post on Oil FA here.

Attached, my views on Oil. A few supports have been broken. Price right now @ the 122.23 support area seen on daily. Next support @116.37.

Price travelling inside a nice channel as observed in H4.

Later...

JP.
By all means, feel free to have discussions like this in here. How could the dollar/oil not be "related" since its quoted in dollar (oil/dollar), as they said to you ? I might be wrong.

Good point about Obama, I understand that a new president have the power to chance the economic outlook when he is elected, but even from this mess?

The first thing I think about oil, is when a trend get too obvious, it might end. By that I mean when every amateur investor hear from some friends how many millions they made from buying oil, and they want a piece of that cake, changes happen. Market rarely gives any free ride. If we head to 120, I see a probability for a further drop.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,369
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:09am Jul 30, 2008 5:09am
Quoting Trader KGB
Ah it was there in front me the whole time. Not a beginner by any means, just never saw it done in MT4 before. Many thanks!
For us who have spend some time here, we could back up that you're not a beginner at all.

JP; I see that daily TL's is about to be broken too. But we shall not forget that price made an fake breakout. Brian Marber call TL broken (in fx) when price have made 3 closing-bar 1% below/above a TL.

On 4h chart we can see that price already have made an downward channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.jpg Size: 118 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,370
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:18am Jul 30, 2008 5:18am
Quoting Pip Ventures
Havent seen this one before.

I love the PA trading.

I do the same but on a 10 sec line chart.

S&R lines are the best indicators.

Happy Trading!!
10 sec line chart ! Hope you have a strong heart Welcome to this thread.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,371
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:32am Jul 30, 2008 5:32am
Lets have a look on aud/usd. It seemed like price would channel upward, from a technical point of view of course, but I couldn't be more wrong.

Dancing-shoes have been switched, and I'm now looking for a possible short if we can get 2 more days closed even a bit lower to met the 1% below TL "rule" which I start to like very well when looking at any larger TF like daily. 1% below TL is stated with the short blue line. This rule, which I wish I had found eariler, is a great rule to avoid beeing caught in a fake breakout.

Anyone else heard of it ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.jpg Size: 119 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,372
  • Jul 30, 2008 6:39am Jul 30, 2008 6:39am
Aediaz1, 1% of what it should be? thanks in advance .
regards
Quoting aediaz1
Lets have a look on aud/usd. It seemed like price would channel upward, from a technical point of view of course, but I couldn't be more wrong.

Dancing-shoes have been switched, and I'm now looking for a possible short if we can get 2 more days closed even a bit lower to met the 1% below TL "rule" which I start to like very well when looking at any larger TF like daily. 1% below TL is stated with the short blue line. This rule, which I wish I had found eariler, is a great rule to avoid beeing caught in a fake breakout.

Anyone else heard of it ?
  • #2,373
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:06am Jul 30, 2008 7:06am
Quoting aediaz1
Lets have a look on aud/usd. It seemed like price would channel upward, from a technical point of view of course, but I couldn't be more wrong.

Dancing-shoes have been switched, and I'm now looking for a possible short if we can get 2 more days closed even a bit lower to met the 1% below TL "rule" which I start to like very well when looking at any larger TF like daily. 1% below TL is stated with the short blue line. This rule, which I wish I had found eariler, is a great rule to avoid beeing caught in a fake breakout.

Anyone else heard of it ?

Hi Aediaz,

Check again my post on AUSSIE... Weekly Divergence...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2359

Cheers.

JP.
  • #2,374
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:56am Jul 30, 2008 7:56am
Quoting kenneith
Aediaz1, 1% of what it should be? thanks in advance .
regards
1% of the price. I.e eur/usd at 1.5557 = 155 pips (1%). So if you have a TL, you need price to close 155 pips above/below your TL.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,375
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:57am Jul 30, 2008 7:57am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hi Aediaz,

Check again my post on AUSSIE... Weekly Divergence...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2359

Cheers.

JP.
Spot on ! Divergence should not be ignored.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,376
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:32am Jul 30, 2008 9:32am
Quoting aediaz1
Spot on ! Divergence should not be ignored.
I am targeting 0.8590 on that divergence.

Best,

JP.
  • #2,377
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:23am Jul 31, 2008 3:23am
Quoting jupiter_peak
I am targeting 0.8590 on that divergence.

Best,

JP.
Typo ? Or do you target 800 pips ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,378
  • Jul 31, 2008 5:42am Jul 31, 2008 5:42am
Quoting aediaz1
Typo ? Or do you target 800 pips ?

Sorry,

Wrong number.

Target: 0.8504.

Around 3rd fib support area or 0.382.

Hope this makes sense to you.

Cheers.
JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,379
  • Jul 31, 2008 7:58am Jul 31, 2008 7:58am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Sorry,

Wrong number.

Target: 0.8504.

Around 3rd fib support area or 0.382.

Hope this makes sense to you.

Cheers.
JP.
Actually it doesn't. First of all, the weekly candle hasn't closed yet so we don't know if this breakout will be valid or not. On daily chart, we can see that lower TL have been broken. That along with the divergence is, technically, our only guidance. I'm not saying you're wrong on your direction, I don't think you are, but calling a close-to 1000 pip target whereas the lowest fib area is your target doesn't make sense, I hope you understand that.

We all make mistakes, and I can be more than happy to raise my hand and say that I've made thousands of them, also posted in this thread and it's no dishonor for me, because mistakes have turned out to be the best way to improve myself
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,380
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:14pm Jul 31, 2008 1:14pm
Quoting aediaz1
Actually it doesn't. First of all, the weekly candle hasn't closed yet so we don't know if this breakout will be valid or not. On daily chart, we can see that lower TL have been broken. That along with the divergence is, technically, our only guidance. I'm not saying you're wrong on your direction, I don't think you are, but calling a close-to 1000 pip target whereas the lowest fib area is your target doesn't make sense, I hope you understand that.

We all make mistakes, and I can be more than happy to raise my hand and say that I've made thousands of them, also posted in this thread and it's no dishonor for me, because mistakes have turned out to be the best way to improve myself
Hi Aediaz,

Thanks for the reply.

Maybe I am not the only one making this "mistake":

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1168

Longer TFs provide more pips for those who are able to trade them. This could be very possible in a very, very long run.

That's not my case. I only trade intra-day.

I am taking this example for educational purposes only.

I am not saying that this is a mistake or not. I am just saying it's my observation.

Fact of matter, I have made a few pips already out of that break. That's what counts for me at the end of the day.

Only time will tell if it's indeed a mistake or not.

Cheers.
JP.
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