Ray's Euro Trades

It seemed EUR back to it's long term uptrend after some correction in the last three days . I'm only follow weekly and daily TF. Put my long trade again after NFP at round number 1.3600.

Here it is Friday again - the week seems to have flown by and we are basically back to where we started last week with the Euro, last Sunday night (07-01-07) - 1.3620/30's, over the weekend, again!

Tony - I'm so trying to see where this thing is going to take off higher next week, but all I see is a 4th or B Wave sideways correction as the overall short term picture. The two waves are pulling down to at least 1.3550. Further, we keep printing lower lows and lower highs on short term bars since 07-05-07, plus Gann due and upcoming Gann reversal signals sprinkled in, so who knows...

Oguretz - I guess NFP did neither! I was tempted to get out around the 1.3570's but I'm still holding my b*tch short positions - only 'cause looking at the charts, I don't know what else to do with them! Let me know how you did!

Results for the Week of 07-01-07 to 07-06-07
Minus 41 pips on Monday. Still short at 1.3623 from 07-05-07 with two lots.
Stop is ridiculous at 1.3703 just to be out of the way (and survive to trade another day if it gets hit), in case of a stray impulse bullet.
Initial target at 1.3550 where the plan is to close one lot and let the other run with a trailing stop.

Forecast for 07-08-07 into 07-09-07
Once trading starts Sunday, we'll see 1.3633 to 1.3613 then around to 1.3651 to 1.3598. Conservative trading range is 1.3637 and 1.3610.
The overall medium to longer trend still remains bullish - just needs a little rest down to get it going again.

Hello Ray
NFP didn't do much, true enough.
The 190k revised for last month gave me some hope, but...
It was largely ignored. Market sentiment is a tricky thing...

Meanwhile, I'll just hang on to my shorts, collect the interest.
My SL is at 1.3680, at which point I liquidate part of my position.
My next SL I haven't determined yet.
We'll see how things play out next week.

Enjoy your weekend, everyone.
Life ain't all about trading. Clear your head, do something fun. :
Get back into it on Monday.

Cheers

Well, Oguretz NFP didn't do anything to it, and neither did today - we're back to 1.3620...

Tomorrow's a week that I'm holding that short - could have scalped some pips today, but didn't want to mess with the leverage with 2 lots already in.

We could see 1.3666 then 1.3565 - once I see 1.3565 again, I'm bailing half and letting the other lot run with, at worst, a break-even stop...

Results for 07-08-07 into 07-09-07
Forecast for Sunday into Monday was pretty good:
"Once trading starts Sunday, we'll see 1.3633..." - we saw a high of 1.3637 first then - "...to 1.3613..." - we saw a low of 1.3607.
"Conservative trading range is 1.3637 and 1.3610." - as of this writing at about 11:00 p.m. EDST, the high was at 1.3638 and the low so far at 1.3607.

Forecast for 07-10-07
I think the next part of the forecast for Sunday into Monday will materialize next : "...then around to 1.3651 [back to] to 1.3598." - for now, we're going to see a high back up 1.3655/66 as a fake out then down to 1.3565/55 (which by the way, happens to be a beautiful Gann play for Forex).
Conservative trading range is 1.3643 to 1.3597.

Whew! Paid 160 pips today (two lots 80 pips each) to get reminded that I can be wrong - lots of times!

Tony, hope you collected your pips!

Oguretz, we got to get back on the horse and collect some pips!

Results
From yesterday's forecast "...around to 1.3651 [back to] to 1.3598..." didn't see 1.3651, only went to 1.3638 then down to 1.3590 as the low with a 1.3602 close instead of 1.3598.."...going to see a high back up 1.3655/66..." yeah we saw 1.3655/66 alright..."as a fake out then down to 1.3565/55" - sure, you better beleive it it faked me out - to 1.3786!!
Minus 80 pips x 2 lots = 160 pips total

Forecast
Time to buckle up my diaper and get to work on earning some pips...last night I also wrote "...down to 1.3565/55 (which by the way, happens to be a beautiful Gann play for Forex)" - watch that Gann reversal happen 3 days early (since I see another for this coming Saturday) pulling it right down tomorrow, though not to 1.3565 all in one shot (just being sarcastic, don't know that for sure, though it has happened plenty of times in the past when the weekend gets in the way of a count, before or after...)
Shorted (again!) two lots at 1.3758 this evening looking for 1.3719 with a stop moved to break even as of tonight writing.
If 1.3731 breaks, we'll see 1.3619 in a couple of days, if not, then back up to 1.3786/1.3816.
These are short term trades - and I especially need to remind MYSELF of that - of course, the overall trend remains bullish.

Hi Ray

Yeah, I'm bleeding now...
My SL happened 100 pips ago...
Liquidated roughly half of my position.
Sure could use some pips right about now.

Well, my AUD/NZD made me 20 pips today, but not enough to console me. Still lamenting my EUR/USD loss...

Going against the trend can hurt rather badly, eh?

GL, we'll need it.

Oguretz: No worries, we know drawdowns are part of the game!

I got stopped at break even when Euro went back up overnight to and over 1.3758.
So, of course what did I do this morning when I woke up to nothing - what else - shorted of course! (I think that is the definition of insanity...but look at that chart!)
Went short with two lots this morning at 1.3771 and closed it tonight at 1.3743 - why tempt a lousy Gann reading?
Plus 28 pips x 2 lots = 56 pips for today.

Results
I said yesterday: "If 1.3731 breaks, we'll see 1.3619 in a couple of days..." - a low of 1.3729 is not a break of 1.3731, hope no one went short there - then I said "...1.3731 didn't break [if not,] then back up to 1.3786/1.3816." - well, we got a high of 1.3781 for the day so far. These numbers weren't bad for today, either.

Forecast
I see 1.3731 to 1.3723 as pretty good support, and placed an entry order at 1.3734 to go long - yes, I said long (so everyone better go short, if you know what's good for you) - stop at 1.3660.
Conservative trading range is probably around 1.3712 to 1.3784.
1.3731 didn't break

07/12/07 - 07:00 A.M. EDST - A rather active overnight session brought up some importantant additional data into the charts - look at 1.3810/18 if reached, then 1.3729 could be a real possibility. Ray

The Euro is thundering through...defying all laws of gravity - how long until a correction? Perhaps one started underway today (to 1.3729/35 - area to look to go long, if seen) but make no mistake about it - as it happens, it's a correction within a raging bull market, so it's going against the wind all the way.
I'm noticing negative divergences from the daily to 30 minute charts, resistance levels relatively nearby at 1.3814/18 and 1.3840/48, then hopping all the way to 1.3901 using Fibs extensions - so what are the odds? Who knows, this is forex! Further, today and Sunday are some more Gann reversal days, which usually do mean something..to be abundantly clear, all the signs are there for at least a 50-80 pip correction. Do I want to put my money where my mouth is right now? No. Let's see what happens day, by day, this coming week. Let the market show me that it's headed in the direction that my charts are predicting- how? By breaking through the fib levels either way.
My order for 2 lots short at 1.3807 since yesterday, got filled this morning, but closed half later this morning at 1.3775 and moved my stop to break even with the other lot...I'll let it run either way, since it won't cost me anything, but I'm not going to keep torturing myself with multiple shorts/exposure in such a strong bull market. The other side of the coin is that this was a stupid move, since I'm finally making money, so I cut half of my position by closing it - would agree IF it was a position coinciding with this trend - so let me bank my pips!

Weekly Results
- 160 pips on 07-10-07
+ 56 pips on 07-11-07
+ 32 pips on 07-13-07

Forecast for 07-15-07 into 07-16-07
We'll probably see a bounce between 1.3799 and 1.3770 once the maket opens. Will be looking to go long around 1.3742 for 1.3821. Have to be careful that I don't hedge myself with the open short if the 1.3740/30's roll around.
And I would check the charts again if 1.3821 prints before going down to the 1.3730/40's level - just to see where technically the Euro would be able to do that.

Results for 07-15-07 into 07-16-07
The forecast had "...bounce between 1.3799 and 1.3770..." which was a good call since the high was seen at 1.3803 with a close at 1.3800 (30 min bar) and the low at 1.3756 with an open of 1.3771 and a close of 1.3785 (on the same 30 min bar). Was looking to go long at 1.3742 but it didn't hit.

Forecast for 07-17-07
We'll have resistance starting around 1.3786 to 1.3803 taking us down to 1.3757 to a low of 1.3744/20.
Or another case scenerio would be going down from here (1.3782) to 1.3728 then up to 1.3833 which would keep the uptrend going in the short term.
Still holding one short from 1.3807 with a break even stop, looking to close 1.3748.

Hello Ray

So it looks like this pair is trading in a fairly narrow range.
I wonder where the next break out is going to go, north or south...

Meanwhile some vigilant scalping is called for in this range-bound scenario.
Hope this lasts for a few more days.

Regards

EUR/USD is at 1.3730, down 90 pips in just over 5 hours.
I wonder if this is the commencement of a major retracement after unprecedented rise to new highs.

What are your thoughts, Ray?

Decided to renew this thread in an effort to have some kind of record of my trading thoughts. And to hopefully gain some valuable input from all of the smart folks out there.

As of now, I just see a few waves in the 60 minute to 15 minute charts. There is a possibly interesting 4th wave in the 60 minute chart from 1.5854 to 1.5773, but wave 4's have a hard time to materialize so don't bet the farm.

There is also a fair amount of recent positive divergence in the 30 minute chart, but not enough to do anything just yet - look to see what happens when 1.5773/85 hits.

Speaking of, if we get a clean break of 1.5773, then we still have 1.5726, 1.5705 and 1.5667 to 1.5613, acting as plenty of support on the 30 minute, so it might not be a real smooth free fall - if this pair goes that way.

We'll be seeing some more choppy conditions with price currently at 1.5869 on the EUR/USD.

I'm putting in an order to go short at 1.5877 with a trailing limit/stop starting with a target of 1.5846 then to 1.5828 down to 1.5773 if there is follow through. Stop loss at 1.5902. R/R starts at 1.2.

What a great day in the forex market today - if you went long, you made money and if you went short, you made money - what more can we ask for! Up 31 right after this mornings 5:30 am post, then trailing stop hit on choppiness.

To be as uncomplicated as possible, I'm calling for a high of 1.5880 and a low of 1.5730 for tomorow. Look out, stop loss has to be high - over 1.5948. Giving us a maximum R/R of about 2.2.
We could well head towards 1.5948 if the positive divergences give way - so just watch the price action and follow the market.

Here is what I think is going to happen in the next few days - from now we'll hit 1.5839 then go down on a wave 2 to 1.5803 to as low as 1.5758 then up to 1.5867/85 to 1.5730 to as low as 1.5658.

HOWEVER, the overall trend is still positive, and there is a ton of support starting at 1.5825 all the way through to 1.5774 so we may well see 1.5948 sooner rather than later - adjust your positions accordingly.

Don't see too much exciting stuff going on with the EUR/USD right now.

We'll probably see resistance to between 1.5748 and 1.5784 and support starting at 1.5697/82 to as low as 1.5640.

For now, I'm range trading between 1.5734 and 1.5648 with 80 pip stops. R/R is at 1.1

If your feeling adventurous, go long from 1.5682 and short from 1.5734 to try scalp some pips.

I'm concerned about some fundamental news over the weekend in regards to a Housing Bill that was passed in the US today (07.27.08) that might move the EUR/USD, and an OPEC minister talking about oil at $70.00/barrel.

It is probably nothing, but risk management dictates taking the chips off the table, watching, and following the market in case the two fundamentals mentioned above turn out to be market movers.

As we all saw, the EUR/USD went downhill like a freight train today. Hope instead of getting in front of it, everyone road it, for some pips.

Thirty and sixty minute charts are very bearish showing targets starting at 1.5555 again to as low as 1.5513 to 1.5481/63. Stops should not be higher than 1.5635 for now, with an entry of 1.5608, since we want to limit exposure and protect gains.

Further, when you look at the 15, 30 and 60 minute charts for EUR/USD for today, you'll notice a prominent, almost 90 degree slope that almost always can not be sustained - it's like a gap that needs to be filled - so look out for a nice retracement starting around Friday, running into next week. We're also starting to see positive divergence in the 15 to 60 minute charts, adding further validation. And remember that the overall daily trend is still positive.

Trying not to cause more confusion - instead of talking about waves, channels, support and resistance - let me just put down the bottom line as to how I see it for the next day or two:

Long at 1.5476 with a an 80 pip stop and target of 1.5594

Short at 1.5590 with an 80 pip stop and target of 1.5480

R/R at 1.5

Very short time frames are obviously in a downward trend.

But in all those time frames I see the Eur trying to break out.

I think it's safe to say that if 1.5500 is overcome, then that will act as a confirmation into a nice uptrend again, with a target of 1.5700 in several days.

I won't trade this pair until/if it shows some more strength past 1.5500 - then I'd still watch it because, of course, it has to fool around at first (up, then down, then a resumption up - gotta love those waves).

As far as some real trading numbers, and going purely by the waves, I'd have to call a high of about 1.5529 and a low of (yikes!) around 1.5422 for the next day.