No Brainer Trades

Sell @ 1.5635 looks like a no brainer.

I was thinking more of the lines of 1.5660, but we might not get there given the sentiment.

This sells seems more like chasing to me, but that is just my opinion

Buy @ 1.0390-1.0408

If you consider a 38.2% retracement, the monthly central pivot, a recent significant support area (1.5635), and a retest of a 4+ month trendline chasing, I suppose.

I like from there to 1.5628. My only reservation is that it's not much of a ret. if it starts now. From a bigger picture, the 1.5800 level is right about 50% now.

Along the minimal ret., but very strong level line of thinking is the 1.0406 level for Swissy. That thing took a beating as resistance. It's tough imagining it failing as support.

EDIT: ha! You beat me to it

Ya, the 1.0400 area looks solid. With respect to the euro, it looks to me like it will find some support at the monthly M2 @1.5530 area. This will make the 1.5635 area a 50% retracement, plus all of the other resistance up in that area.

Good stuff.

Not feeling so hot about my GBP "No Brainer" at this point, but we shall see.

http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/8202/euif4.th.jpg

This is what i am trading on EU.

Hi guys, just wanted to write a little bit here as its been a pretty busy day for me; EUR has hit a daily range of a little more than 200 pips, so there is a reversal due here of some sorts, if not here at 58, then 1.5535 is the next level. CHF will probably play along as it just hit a major mark at 1.0478, but it too, has resistance a little higher at 1.0491 about about. Given euro's overextention I wouldn't expect price to go past either of those marks for the day, so if not now, then then at those marks. GBP hit our trade level but the obvious conditions of the day ran it down pretty easily. JPY levels, surprisingly, not hit today; staying out of that one, but keeping my eyes on 40 and 60 for sells. Thats it for now....really in need of some rest catch up later.

This one is not covering itself in glory at all, -30 pips and going. Wrong pick of support. Seems like one of those 200 pip days. I am worried because this 1.55-1.56 area is hollow, none of serious support areas there. Hoping for retracement to at least 1.5611 after this freaking DJIA is done for the day. Interesting but it seems that Euro and DJIA are very correlated.

Things are starting to correct. The day should finally be exhausted...
Don't worry, I don't think any of the major levels that got hit today held up well.
My AUD level of 9507-9500 did hold, but still hasn't had a decent bounce.

Hi Finswin56,

I hope you are right. On AUD I was waiting for 9485 do you think it can go there today?

I sure hope not!
I don't see why not though, as long as it doesn't break through .9520, which it's been having a difficult time with.

Looks like a "no brainer" to me:

Price below SHI channel.

Price in fib projection range.

Big "3" semafor.

To all forum participants:

Remember this is a "no brainer trade" thread. If you are using the words "might", "hope", "could", "maybe", etc.... when talking about a trade than you're in the wrong thread.

To me a 90% certain trade is a trade that has multiple confirming signals. It aligns with current fundamental dynamics and at least two supporting technical reasons.

90% certainty is very high. 9 times out of 10 it's a winner, not 9 times out of 10 you'd take the trade.

I hope no one takes this as a personal attack because it's not. It just seems as though someone had to address this issue. Please don't blow what I'm saying out of proportion and get upset. Rather, take a moment and digest what I've written and see if perhaps there is some truth to it.

Good trades to all.

TFX

I'm actually grateful for you speaking up. It's very easy to just chat up the current trades and lose sight of this thread's focus.

Hi Codemuncher,

I hope you don't mind these indicator questions BRV.

I wonder if you could please shed a little light for me. How exactly does the Semafor indicator work, what is it plotting, what does the "3" actually represent, apart from a potential reversal that is .

Could you also tell me what the other indicator is, the FXDASH board with retrace info and where I might find it.

Thanks,

Sorry for the slow response. I was commuting and am now at work. I have no first hand knowledge about how many cars they may have. I have read that the government is trying to put the best face on the Olympics that they can, and I've read they started cutting their subsidies on the price of gas to discourage the number of vehicals on the road because of a pretty consistent smog problem there. That graduated to another level in the last two weeks when they started restricting the number of cars on the road in the capital (I'm not sure how they are doing that though). Funny thing is, they are now having the worst smog ever, despite the government's best efforts to curb things. So, like most governments, you can bet they will continue to restrict things that polute, including cars and factories until the situation changes, or until the Olympics are over.

I'm certainly not saying that taxi driver's in Beijing are responsible for the price of oil worldwide. They are, of course, just one of MANY factors. But the curve of the demand for oil in China changing up and down is going to effect how a speculator sees his potential to make some reasonably quick bucks. In the absence of other news to push things up, anything that is seen to change the trend down is going to make speculators jump ship. So if that is the smog problem in China relative to the Olympics, or Bush signing an executive order to allow drilling, or a hurricane missing most of the drilling rigs and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, or US drivers not going on vacation, or whatever... it all adds to a change in the curve/trend, and speculators/traders (as we all know) really don't like it when the trend deviates from an extreme high... until they know they can ride the market down for a big gain, or until there is a reason for the trend to resume.

With people feeling things are settling out in the US, and the rest of the world starting to feel the pain of a sick US economy, the US dollar is starting to look a little over sold to some people right here. That isn't necessarily my opinion... The market tells us what all the "voters" think. Doesn't matter if they are right or not. Stand in the way and you'll get bulldozed, no matter how "right" you are.

The beauty of what we're doing here is, we might get nicked on a wrong call here or there, but by and large, we are just reacting to what all the other players tell us based on where they support price and resist movement. It is my considered (but far from expert) opinion that this is probably the only way to survive in this business. The more you try to tell the market what it should be doing the quicker you'll go bankrupt... Sometimes you'll be really, really right, and make a ton of money. But often, this just makes a trader too sure of themself, and you will not survive being wrong for very long -- and after some wins this way you'll be all the more set up to take the fall. Nobody is right 100% of the time. How you survive your losses defines you in this business...

Sorry... I only meant to write my 2 cents... Guess I'm up to $1.50 now. BRV thanks for all you've done here. And thanks to all the rest for your contributions. I'll shut up now and study, study, study.

It might not even get that high Pipeye. 1.5610 might cap upside, which I like. That must mean I love 1.5630 as a short.

gbp/usd had a daily bearish engulfing candle and broke the daily trendline. This was also one of the wedges I was watching. 1.9815/40 area will be the area to load up shorts imo.