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  • #1,741
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:03am Jul 29, 2008 10:03am
I opened my charts about a half hour ago to see the dollar making a big move towards strength. But it started several hours before the Consumer Confidence report. Cannot find what started the dollar rally... even on the Oanda News or FFF Calendar.

Any insights?

Thanks.
  • #1,742
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:04am Jul 29, 2008 10:04am
BRV could you please tell Mortimer and Randolph to make this Mofo bounce already?
  • #1,743
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:22am Jul 29, 2008 10:22am
Quoting Lou
I opened my charts about a half hour ago to see the dollar making a big move towards strength. But it started several hours before the Consumer Confidence report. Cannot find what started the dollar rally... even on the Oanda News or FFF Calendar.

Any insights?

Thanks.

Oil? M. Lynch raising capital?

I just cant imagine why are there so many us eqity optimists. Does this look like a sucker rally again?
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,744
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:29am Jul 29, 2008 10:29am
It's a low liquidity whipsaw.
I'm looking at EURCHF which usually leads Dow Jones index and it looks like it's done running so I'm expecting carries to selloff soon. EJ has a headstart. I shorted USDCHF at a poor price but I'm content with the position S @ 1.0446.
It really is that easy.
  • #1,745
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:50am Jul 29, 2008 10:50am
Quoting Lou
I opened my charts about a half hour ago to see the dollar making a big move towards strength. But it started several hours before the Consumer Confidence report. Cannot find what started the dollar rally... even on the Oanda News or FFF Calendar.

Any insights?

Thanks.
As I type this, oil is down $3.4+, so that would be my guess. Just feeding off of something of a burst in the speculative bubble. With China chasing people off the roads in Beijing to cure the smog problem for the Olympics, I don't see oil making a recovery in the next few weeks unless we get more international conflict or a weather play.
  • #1,746
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:51am Jul 29, 2008 10:51am
i think the geppy short is a no brainer here
  • #1,747
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:12am Jul 29, 2008 11:12am
Quoting Pennypacker
i think the geppy short is a no brainer here
why?
  • #1,748
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:15am Jul 29, 2008 11:15am
Quoting Qman
As I type this, oil is down $3.4+, so that would be my guess. Just feeding off of something of a burst in the speculative bubble. With China chasing people off the roads in Beijing to cure the smog problem for the Olympics, I don't see oil making a recovery in the next few weeks unless we get more international conflict or a weather play.
Thanks Qman.
Do they have a lot of cars in Bejing to make a difference.? I know that in the US gas tax revenue is down quite a bit, reflecting less auto travel.
  • #1,749
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:15am Jul 29, 2008 11:15am
the UK economy is blowing up so the GU is off by 145pips today and the geppy has not moved at all...i think it is due for a 50-75 pip slide
  • #1,750
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:17am Jul 29, 2008 11:17am
Anyone have a level for a long EURUSD?
  • #1,751
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:19am Jul 29, 2008 11:19am
Quoting finswin56
why?
We've hit at least a few posted No Brainers. None are moving the right direction, yet.
  • #1,752
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:20am Jul 29, 2008 11:20am
Quoting Pennypacker
the UK economy is blowing up so the GU is off by 145pips today and the geppy has not moved at all...i think it is due for a 50-75 pip slide
thanks. I'll let you brave guys take those. I barely have a clue about the main pairs.
  • #1,753
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:28am Jul 29, 2008 11:28am
Quoting Pennypacker
the UK economy is blowing up so the GU is off by 145pips today and the geppy has not moved at all...i think it is due for a 50-75 pip slide
50-75 pips on GY is nothing, the beast moves 200-300 on a good day. GY is following Us/Yen right now - do not expect any sell off until after triple interest wed.
  • #1,754
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:34am Jul 29, 2008 11:34am
Quoting dnic24
50-75 pips on GY is nothing, the beast moves 200-300 on a good day. GY is following Us/Yen right now - do not expect any sell off until after triple interest wed.

I apologize if you have already done it, but could you elaborate a little more on the Wedn. tripple interest concept. I am still unable to grasp the significance and importance of it.

Thank you in advance
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,755
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:48am Jul 29, 2008 11:48am
I took a long g/u off the most recent s/r. anyone else take that?
  • #1,756
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:56am Jul 29, 2008 11:56am
Quoting djambazov84
I apologize if you have already done it, but could you elaborate a little more on the Wedn. tripple interest concept. I am still unable to grasp the significance and importance of it.

Thank you in advance
Most brokers that pay interest rollover or swap will calculate Wednesday as triple interest, to cover Saturday and Sunday, making it a 30 day month.
  • #1,757
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:57am Jul 29, 2008 11:57am
Headed toward 2.11 again? or is this a sustainable downtrend? Just curious where I stood w/ the rest of the pack. . .

I think we are seeing a "hope" bubble in America with oil slightly correcting and housing "not as bad as expected" . . . we take hope that we are failing not as bad as we thought we would.

When your best hope is that you might not suck as bad as last year. . . . well its like being the Kansas City Royals. . . and that is not a good position to be in

I think we push towards 2.11 within the next 12 months

Thoughts?
  • #1,758
  • Jul 29, 2008 12:02pm Jul 29, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting rogerdoger
I took a long g/u off the most recent s/r. anyone else take that?
It seems to be holding. In at 1.9796. I put my stop 40 back - how about you? There was just some news that came out saying trade talks between U.S. and China/India have broken off - I thought this would have an immediate weakening effect on the dollar, but nothing happened.
  • #1,759
  • Jul 29, 2008 12:05pm Jul 29, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting intrieri22
It seems to be holding. In at 1.9796. I put my stop 40 back - how about you? There was just some news that came out saying trade talks between U.S. and China/India have broken off - I thought this would have an immediate weakening effect on the dollar, but nothing happened.
I did the same thing as you. I am a little higher then you though on the entry.
  • #1,760
  • Jul 29, 2008 12:10pm Jul 29, 2008 12:10pm
Quoting rogerdoger
I did the same thing as you. I am a little higher then you though on the entry.
It appears to be bottoming - there was such a drastic drop and now it has been treading water. I like our chances. I had a great trade this morning long on USD/CHF - made some money, but got out too soon - it exploded. I have to learn to be more patient - every time I move my stop to break even, I am concerned about making nothing on the trade after it has gone up so I get out too soon. I do this consistently...I wish I had someone here to smack me and say "stay in the damn trade!" Good luck to you on this one.
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