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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #4,781
  • Jul 28, 2008 6:15am Jul 28, 2008 6:15am
Quoting Timebandit
Hi All
Hope this excel helps calculate lot size when people want to risk an additional % of profit as well as original % of capital. Please check all calculations as I'm not that good with excel. Happy pipin.

Timebandit
Great spreadsheet. I use a similar one that I obtained through LTT a place where I did a forex course. I will post it if I get permission as it carries there logo
  • #4,782
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:06pm Jul 28, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting edge540
Motu:I think it is all a bit academic,if you are risking a certain percentage of your account then as you move into profit your number of lots increases and visa versa.Correct me if I'm wrong but are you thinking that Jacko implied that once he was in profit he risked all of that profit on the next trade.This approach would be highly risky in my view,a fixed percentage of your account is far safer.
Hi Edge...I'm correcting you..

Have a close read of the stuartr quote...and raz's reply to my earlier post...I'm talking about trade size above and below the starting line.

Hope you didn't get too blown about in that storm recently!

Cheers, Motu
  • #4,783
  • Jul 28, 2008 9:15pm Jul 28, 2008 9:15pm
How do you tell the trend if its conflicting on different time frames? It might be going down on 4h, but the daily might lnot ook good and saying up? Are we using weekly to determine it? I think identifying which way the trend is going long term is pretty difficult anyone else have a better idea (without indicator) ?

Like the euro now looks like it might go up on daily, but its been trending down (4 h)...so is the move up just a retracement and should I sell or did we just get a double bottom and I should buy?
  • #4,784
  • Jul 28, 2008 9:24pm Jul 28, 2008 9:24pm
Quoting Xenaga03
How do you tell the trend if its conflicting on different time frames? It might be going down on 4h, but the daily might lnot ook good and saying up? Are we using weekly to determine it? I think identifying which way the trend is going long term is pretty difficult anyone else have a better idea (without indicator) ?

Like the euro now looks like it might go up on daily, but its been trending down (4 h)...so is the move up just a retracement and should I sell or did we just get a double bottom and I should buy?
Yeah.... makes ya crazy don't it?
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #4,785
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:53pm Jul 28, 2008 10:53pm
Motuoint taken, my problem is getting enough winning trades before I consider trying to get a better return on my profits. Even though I'm in Jacko's group I still can't seem to get it right.
Bad weather al right!
  • #4,786
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:46pm Jul 28, 2008 11:46pm
Quoting Xenaga03
How do you tell the trend if its conflicting on different time frames? It might be going down on 4h, but the daily might lnot ook good and saying up? Are we using weekly to determine it? I think identifying which way the trend is going long term is pretty difficult anyone else have a better idea (without indicator) ?

Like the euro now looks like it might go up on daily, but its been trending down (4 h)...so is the move up just a retracement and should I sell or did we just get a double bottom and I should buy?
g'day Xenaga03
i'm still just learning Jacko's system but from what i understand if you choose to trade off the daily chart, that's the chart you use to determine the trend direction, there is no need to look at the 4 hour chart for this purpose. keep it simple. that's how i understand it anyway.
  • #4,787
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:47am Jul 29, 2008 2:47am
As I understand it, Jacko uses weekly and daily to determine the trend, employing a 5 year old child to draw a trendline, if required. Then he uses lower timeframes to determine the best entry level.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #4,788
  • Jul 29, 2008 5:38am Jul 29, 2008 5:38am
Any one see 1.560 today?
Oil heading south, $ looking for the 108s
  • #4,789
  • Jul 29, 2008 8:05am Jul 29, 2008 8:05am
Anyone have an insight as to why the dollar strengthened? I mean prior to the Consumer Confidence report. The move started a few hours before that.

Anyone?
  • #4,790
  • Jul 29, 2008 8:09am Jul 29, 2008 8:09am
news leak? lower oil?
  • #4,791
  • Jul 29, 2008 8:11am Jul 29, 2008 8:11am
Quoting Lou
Anyone have an insight as to why the dollar strengthened? I mean prior to the Consumer Confidence report. The move started a few hours before that.

Anyone?
Hey Lou,
oil and gold both dropped, that could have something to do with it...
Never say never.
  • #4,792
  • Jul 29, 2008 8:38am Jul 29, 2008 8:38am
Yes Oil and Gold were dropping, that would be my guess, the majors usually follow not to long after, but why oil and gold were dropping that i don't know..
  • #4,793
  • Jul 29, 2008 8:52am Jul 29, 2008 8:52am
According to the UBS news service this morning (free on Oanda fxtrade), The Dollar continues to strengthen in the face of worsening economic conditions in Europe and Japan.
As already experienced in The UK (I can vouch for that!) Canada and New Zealand. It Goes on to say that as decoupling proves elusive, oil prices have also fallen sharply. They also suggest that until the ECB turns more dovish and the US data justifies the markets expectations of Fed rates hikes, The EURUSD will remain trapped in its 1.53-1.60 range. They say that they continue to prefer relative value trades ( whatever they are anyone?) rather than strong directional bets in the near term.
  • #4,794
  • Edited 9:10am Jul 29, 2008 9:06am | Edited 9:10am
Thanks all for the info. I had checked the News on O but missed that. Yesterday at 10 pm US Central time I had checked Oil and Gold , but didnt really see a falloff .. but did not check this a.m.
  • #4,795
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:19am Jul 29, 2008 10:19am
Here is a personal concern of mine, being a USA citizen. I think about this from time to time, and it has always been in the back of my mind. Today, it came up again.

I care about the US economy, how can I not care? A bad US economy negatively effects literally everyone I know and love. It effects me every day. I want the price of food and gas to go down. I want the value in my retirement accounts to go up. I am going to do things, whatever possible at my level, to help the economy improve. Maybe that is as simple as driving smarter. Or maybe it is voting for the candidates that will make a better economy happen. But why shouldn't I try to improve conditions in my country and in my life.

However...... in doing what I can and hoping, looking for, an improving US economy, won't this also mean a stronger dollar? Please instruct me if I am wrong about this.... that a stronger economy will make a stronger dollar.

Therefore... if the dollar gets stronger, won't it mean a change in trend for the Eur/Usd to a downward bias? Please instruct me if I am wrong.

Yet if I continue to go long the Eur/Usd am I not 'betting' against myself?

I had to get this off my chest.


Lou
  • #4,796
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:39am Jul 29, 2008 10:39am
Weekly Crude
Price of crude = big impact on the $,
news = big impact on crude,
news can totally change outlook on oil chart at any time.
repercussions? many.
answers or should I say guesses? multiple choice....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #4,797
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:41am Jul 29, 2008 10:41am
Quoting Lou
Here is a personal concern of mine, being a USA citizen. I think about this from time to time, and it has always been in the back of my mind. Today, it came up again.

I care about the US economy, how can I not care? A bad US economy negatively effects literally everyone I know and love. It effects me every day. I want the price of food and gas to go down. I want the value in my retirement accounts to go up. I am going to do things, whatever possible at my level, to help the economy improve. Maybe that is as simple as driving smarter. Or maybe it is voting for the candidates that will make a better economy happen. But why shouldn't I try to improve conditions in my country and in my life.

However...... in doing what I can and hoping, looking for, an improving US economy, won't this also mean a stronger dollar? Please instruct me if I am wrong about this.... that a stronger economy will make a stronger dollar.

Therefore... if the dollar gets stronger, won't it mean a change in trend for the Eur/Usd to a downward bias? Please instruct me if I am wrong.

Yet if I continue to go long the Eur/Usd am I not 'betting' against myself?

I had to get this off my chest.


Lou
We as (small) traders are but fleas on fleas on fleas in this vast market, nothing you can do (forex wise) will have any impact whatsoever on the state of the American economy, rest assured...
Never say never.
  • #4,798
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:52am Jul 29, 2008 10:52am
It's not just the Dollar that you have to consider but the strength of the Euro compared to it.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #4,799
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:29am Jul 29, 2008 11:29am
Quoting razldazl
We as (small) traders are but fleas on fleas on fleas in this vast market, nothing you can do (forex wise) will have any impact whatsoever on the state of the American economy, rest assured...
Yes I know this. But my point is... it is a conflict of interest.

For example: I see that you are from Spain. If your economy was in trouble would you not want it to get better? Would you bet against it getting better? Could you want it to get better but bet against it getting better at the same time?

I realize that our small trading positions have no effect on the market or the economy. But in wanting my economy to get better, it is a conflict of interest for me to take long Eur/Usd positions.

This is what I am wrestling with.
  • #4,800
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:34am Jul 29, 2008 11:34am
Quoting shadowninja
It's not just the Dollar that you have to consider but the strength of the Euro compared to it.
Yes, that is very true. But betting against the dollar and simultaneously wanting the stock market to go up and the cost of living to go down is my dilemma.
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