No Brainer Trades

Quoting MJurban

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Hi Seaward,
im not finished reading all the information in this thread. I still working on it and try to understand it. Its great that u are posting your plan what to do next.
So my question is: why 169.70 and not 170.00
Hope u dont mind if its a silly question
MJ

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Quoting Rx8

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I was aiming to short either at 169.70 or 170.00. Entered short at 169.68 since the price seems hard to break 169.70 level. Now already +47 pips.
Good call Seaward22.

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Quoting Rx8

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I was aiming to short either at 169.70 or 170.00. Entered short at 169.68 since the price seems hard to break 169.70 level. Now already +47 pips.
Good call Seaward22.

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Quoting Seaward22

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Also remember this thing ranges in the 169's. Id close the trade in the 169.20 level or start a stop loss. I've been buying and selling at this level for a countless amount of trades. Also take a look at triple interest WED. Big banks buy Fri-Tues. Sell on Wed-Thurs. Things can change though, not a constant.

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Quoting thehun69

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Took a long on the AUD/USD now. I know I'm in late, but it should be good for another 50 pips. Thoughts?


http://i291.photobucket.com/albums/l...n69/AUDUSD.jpg

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Quoting Pennypacker

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So are you a buyer in the 169-169.20 level and a seller in the 169.50-169.75 level?

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Hi guys - I see a lot of fuss here about AUD and 0.9527 was exactly a 61.8 retracement from the largest wave moving up, not to mentioned it coincided with a level that has held up very strong throughout AUD's history out here. I wasnt around to take the trade, but I think some form of sizable retracement would be due if liquidity allows. If not, and you get a close below it, look at the .9478 support level for the next round of buys, followed by .9453, about. Just keep your eyes on those commodities, particularly gold, in the event of any major selling. Looking at the charts, AUD's correlation to gold seems to be a little stronger than normal in the last few weeks (normally around 80% more or less) so any major turning points in risk could maintain a decline, but so far so good. Always just keep your eyes on where the money is flowing....its got to be going somewhere.

For those that don't know, to add a little bit about the meaning of Fxorce's comments, risk aversion tends to spur carry trade selloffs, particularly you'll notice, of course, with JPY-pegged currencies, where the rate is so low.......AUD/JPY is a big carry trade pair for obvious reasons and further unwinding would follow sentiment across all major markets - equities decline worldwide, usually you'll get the carry selloff; happens over and over again. Areas with the most influence on these currencies are of course the ones to watch - so in our market we watch equity markets in the Eurozone and US more heavily than others, where the most money is getting cranked into these pairs. Lack of risk tolerance in these markets tend to lead to the eventual selloffs.

But in terms of trading the actual pair short term there are plenty of bounces to take advantage of. Above I listed a couple, but they're basically everywhere. Gold bounces around just as much as anything else, but AUD is still pegged to the dollar, which is subject to selling off short term. Look at all the angles is my best advice, and if there is strong conviction, go for the long haul. Keep your eyes focused on consumer spending, employment data and inflation meters.

In general here we're talking about capital flows, not just gold, equity markets, government-backed securities, etc. The money is always there; its just flowing from one asset class into another. Most people are essentially forced to hold onto riskier assets, so the potentials surrounding day to day movements are what we take advantage of playing these levels. Just keep your eyes wide open in terms of your surroundings in order to best judge when to call it quits.

The way we trade, as daytraders, we're constantly on the lookout for short-term market hysterics. We're not looking for assets to invest in over the next 2 years or even 4 months. We need to look at whats driving price at this particular point in time, because we're taking part in such a small chunk of the overall movement.

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Quoting Seaward22

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I've watched it test the 170.00 level more times than I can count on my hand in the last 2 weeks. Sentiment is growing negative more and more this Summer towards EU. Even major analysist's are calling for the EUR/USD to hit 1.49 by end of year.

Right now I buy at 169.00-169.20 selling at 169.55 and 169.70. Watch Wed. is a pivot point in weekly trading as you earn triple interest. Big banks seem to be loading up Fri-Tues. Dumping on Wed-Thurs. Soon as triple interest hits your account sell. Fri buy. This isn't a constant, but a great concrete variable to trade around.

EUR/JPY could hit 170-172 this summer but I'll be shorting at every resistance. I think this thing belongs at 158-162 to not cause a crash.

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Quoting Seaward22

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EUR/JPY setting up for a nice short. Touched 169.55. If it hits 169.70 I'm in, if I don't fall alseep. I've been trading since the AUD session started. 11.5 hours. Going to wake up the wife to trade the U.S. session in a couple hours. I wish I was a robot. Never sleep!

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Quoting aerio

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Hi BRV,

Nice work, nice thread! Proves that philanthropy is not dead at all.

According to proceedings on Monday, looks like E/U, G/U down week. Usually, on Monday/Tuesday forex pairs find one extreme of their weekly range and then move opposite to another extreme. Right now looks like EURUSD is trying to find resistance and take out stops on the upside so it is important to catch reversal as it may give several hundred pips (current average weekly range of EURUSD is 300 pips).

First trade I'm gonna take is EURUSD Short @ 1.5783. It was a big support on way down. Moreover, it coincides with 38.2 Fib of down move from 1.6038. If it does not react well, there is major resistance area @ 1.5797-1.5800 so at least there will be opportunity to get out at breakeven.

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