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Daily EUR/JPY analysis

  • #841
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:06pm Jul 28, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting Clouds
Think it can't get past 170? Think again. Eur/Jpy should easily be in the 200's, by the end of the year. The only currency the USD has gained on is the yen. CHF/JPY broke all-time highs not too long ago, all the other pairs are now bullish against the yen as well. EJ has been bullish for 7 years, and the past year was just a small correction and now it's done consolidating and should be heading up to 200+., Just look at Monthly, 4 months of straight bullish. I am not long now, and won't be going long at this price, just saying. JMO

I've been burned many times thinking psychological barriers or "all-time highs" are unbreakable so I agree that it's very possible. However, I guess I'm looking to see if there is an expected trigger or news item that I'm missing that would push it over the top in the short term (i.e. in the next day or two).

I'm looking to get out of this position at a safe 167 area (if I don't get greedy and/or stupid) and was hoping the general consensus was that it's more likely to further consolidate or retrace before that trigger( whatever it is).

Do you see it breaking the 170 inside that time frame and if so is there something on the charts or the news that would give this indication.
  • #842
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:08pm Jul 28, 2008 2:08pm
Quoting rainingpips
I do agree with you that we will probably see a test around 200, however my comment regarding the 167/165 retracements are more short-term (weekly). I'd love to see EUR/JPY continue to climb and take advantage of the carry.
Definitely, it could play around at 170-165 for a few weeks. I want see how far UJ drops this time, before I decide go long.
  • #843
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:09pm Jul 28, 2008 2:09pm
Quoting krullmagnon
I've been burned many times thinking psychological barriers or "all-time highs" are unbreakable so I agree that it's very possible. However, I guess I'm looking to see if there is an expected trigger or news item that I'm missing that would push it over the top in the short term (i.e. in the next day or two).

I'm looking to get out of this position at a safe 167 area (if I don't get greedy and/or stupid) and was hoping the general consensus was that it's more likely to further consolidate or retrace before that trigger( whatever it is).

Do you see it breaking the 170 inside that time frame and if so is there something on the charts or the news that would give this indication.
I don't see it rushing to break 170, but in 30 days it probably will, but never know for sure.
  • #844
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:21pm Jul 28, 2008 2:21pm
Quoting abducted
some1 is long?.
Im long, sl 168.98 tp169.69
what u think??
abd
You will be fine. Most likely will hit your TP tonight, for sure by Wed.
  • #845
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:23pm Jul 28, 2008 2:23pm
hi guys
Im looking for a new broker who allow me a mini and micro lots. (and of course low spread!!!)
can u recomend me 1?
tx
abd
  • #846
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:23pm Jul 28, 2008 2:23pm
Quoting krullmagnon
I've collected a few positions that are positive going short at this point. Trying to figure out where I should bail out of them. Currently short at 9.4 but looking to ride a retrace down to the previous 167 area of support as has been discussed on this thread earlier.

I'm getting the opinion in this thread that there is something I'm missing that has everyone looking for a return to challenge 169-170 area for the fourth time since the 13th? Seems like each shot at it gets thinner retraces without breaking the top? What typically happens in this scenario?

Very first post to these forums but have found them invaluable to my trading. Thanks for all the fantastic input and expertise everyone shares here.
I think it'll drop below 169 by Wed-Thurs then most likely try to test the 170 again. I'm not in the camp that thinks this thing should be over 170 but bulls are definetly in control. I too see a quadruple top, lol. Good analysis!
  • #847
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:24pm Jul 28, 2008 2:24pm
Quoting rainingpips
On my daily charts, I have the fibo retracing to the 23.6 (around 165.70)....so that is probably where some of these people are getting their 165-ish retracements. I will echo the sentiments of many of the people on here when I say I believe that EUR/JPY will probably fall at least back into the 167-ish. I'm an economics major, and irrespective of the technicals (even though for the most part I am a technical trader)...numbers coming out of the EURO zone aren't looking that hot.

As far as the short-term goes...Im short at 169.20...looking for around 20-30 pips once it dips back into the 168s. This is probably going to happen by 8 or 9 PM EST.
Good time estimate! If it tests the 168 before Wed that will be the time to do it.
  • #848
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:28pm Jul 28, 2008 2:28pm
Quoting Clouds
Think it can't get past 170? Think again. Eur/Jpy should easily be in the 200's, by the end of the year. The only currency the USD has gained on is the yen. CHF/JPY broke all-time highs not too long ago, all the other pairs are now bullish against the yen as well. EJ has been bullish for 7 years, and the past year was just a small correction and now it's done consolidating and should be heading up to 200+., Just look at Monthly, 4 months of straight bullish. I am not long now, and won't be going long at this price, just saying. JMO
What about the EUR dropping interest rates? Have you seen the major analysist outlook on the EUR? They say Eur/Usd to 1.49 by end of year. How would Eur/Jpy reach 200? I'm sure it can happen but I'm confused.
  • #849
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:34pm Jul 28, 2008 2:34pm
And I think, this weekly pattern should not be ignored.

I don´t know where this bearish eur news will come from,
or from where this jpy bullish news will come from.

But, these are the patterns, reflecting, trend has stopped
the last 2 weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej_weekly.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #850
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:35pm Jul 28, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting Seaward22
What about the EUR dropping interest rates? Have you seen the major analysist outlook on the EUR? They say Eur/Usd to 1.49 by end of year. How would Eur/Jpy reach 200? I'm sure it can happen but I'm confused.

EJ to 200 by the end of the year is not a possibility.

This would mean the EUR/USD would be 1.68-1.70

The ECB would never let that happen.
  • #851
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:38pm Jul 28, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting Seaward22
What about the EUR dropping interest rates? Have you seen the major analysist outlook on the EUR? They say Eur/Usd to 1.49 by end of year. How would Eur/Jpy reach 200? I'm sure it can happen but I'm confused.
EU 1.55 and UJ 125, then EJ 193.75.
  • #852
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:39pm Jul 28, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting poweredbuyer
EJ to 200 by the end of the year is not a possibility.

This would mean the EUR/USD would be 1.68-1.70

The ECB would never let that happen.
I agree totally, but Cloud is a respected trader so we must respect!

I don't think it should even be at 160.
  • #853
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:58pm Jul 28, 2008 2:58pm
uffF......oK GUYS........

Post my AT......

1° Option

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rettangle1.GIF Size: 29 KB


2° Option.....

the price stop at 165........170 - 1650= 500 pips....

When start the long...or stop at the resistence 170...or 170+500 pips(rettangle) 175!!!!

Good luck for your LONG NOW.......but don't worry.....4/5 day...and the price come back......
  • #854
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:05pm Jul 28, 2008 3:05pm
Now is impossible go over 170...NO GAS!!!!!!

Read my analys...1990/2008....E/J

http://forum.forexometro.com/showthr...t=112&page=118

at 173/175....star wave 4......and finish area 158/160.......after5 go long to 183/185
  • #855
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:07pm Jul 28, 2008 3:07pm
Is there a general consensus in the room that EUR/JPY will at least retrace back into 167 territory by the end of the week?
  • #856
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:30pm Jul 28, 2008 3:30pm
Quoting Finsbury
uffF......oK GUYS........

Post my AT......

1° Option

Attachment

2° Option.....

the price stop at 165........170 - 1650= 500 pips....

When start the long...or stop at the resistence 170...or 170+500 pips(rettangle) 175!!!!

Good luck for your LONG NOW.......but don't worry.....4/5 day...and the price come back......
Are you expecting a retrace to 165 and then a run forward to 175? Not sure I use rettangles on my charting?

To recap?
First off, I appreciate everyones opinion on this place and I guess so far the majority are thinking eventual run over 170 but for the near term (thru this week) it's much more likely to see a retrace to the 167 or 165 area (depending on which fibo you call it at)

The overall reasoning, and this is just what I gathered from reading back, is a lack of news to drive and also the repeated failed attempts at the 169.80-170 hurdle

Just trying to recap for those looking for opinion and confirmation of what they see on the charts.
  • #857
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:34pm Jul 28, 2008 3:34pm
Guys,

Changing the Topic real quick. UJ ... Retail Sales Forecast -0.3 ... lookin at previous history probability of this not meeting the forecast is quite low also given last months results therefore I think this may be an opportunity to grab 40- 50 pips ...

SHORT UJ @ 107.150 SL 107.400 TP 106.700

If im wrong about the data then im thinkin

LONG UJ 107.750 SL 107.4500 TP 108.300

One of these will hit and win.

:-)
  • #858
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:45pm Jul 28, 2008 3:45pm
Quoting rainingpips
Is there a general consensus in the room that EUR/JPY will at least retrace back into 167 territory by the end of the week?
Sell off may happen after the TIW hits everyone's account. Last week it dropped a couple hundred pips from the high 169's then retraced the entire amount on Friday.
  • #859
  • Jul 28, 2008 7:27pm Jul 28, 2008 7:27pm
what exactly do you mean?
  • #860
  • Jul 28, 2008 8:10pm Jul 28, 2008 8:10pm
Just to recap and let anyone know that was following my short term trade from earlier today. From the short position at 169.20 (the pivot point from mid-afternoon onward), its dropped appoximately 20 pips, and i was out at 168.95.
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