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  • #1,661
  • Jul 27, 2008 9:09pm Jul 27, 2008 9:09pm
As a carry pair AUDUSD will come under pressure as the Dow Jones plummets in the USA. That is one of the few times AUDUSD comes unhinged from EURUSD movements. I favor short carries today again. I would have gone long AUDUSD but the carry selloff should mute the AUDUSD appreciation.
It really is that easy.
  • #1,662
  • Jul 27, 2008 9:41pm Jul 27, 2008 9:41pm
Quoting The Fxorce
As a carry pair AUDUSD will come under pressure as the Dow Jones plummets in the USA. That is one of the few times AUDUSD comes unhinged from EURUSD movements. I favor short carries today again. I would have gone long AUDUSD but the carry selloff should mute the AUDUSD appreciation.
They're buying the AUD over on the AUD/USD thread. Purely tech trades. I still want to go short because London hasn't even gotten a hand on this thing yet. Before reversing I think we should see 0.9485
  • #1,663
  • Jul 27, 2008 9:48pm Jul 27, 2008 9:48pm
Quoting The Fxorce
As a carry pair AUDUSD will come under pressure as the Dow Jones plummets in the USA. That is one of the few times AUDUSD comes unhinged from EURUSD movements. I favor short carries today again. I would have gone long AUDUSD but the carry selloff should mute the AUDUSD appreciation.
Why do you think the Dow Jones will plummet? Are you looking for it to go down today or is it on longer time frame?
Expected the unexpected
  • #1,664
  • Jul 27, 2008 9:52pm Jul 27, 2008 9:52pm
Quoting scyang
Why do you think the Dow Jones will plummet? Are you looking for it to go down today or is it on longer time frame?
Stock market took the intitial Fannie Freddie news terrible before realizing it helps U.S. economy. Stock market may take the feds taking over a couple banks over the weekend and the housing bill passing as negative.
  • #1,665
  • Jul 27, 2008 10:43pm Jul 27, 2008 10:43pm
Quoting Seaward22
They're buying the AUD over on the AUD/USD thread. Purely tech trades. I still want to go short because London hasn't even gotten a hand on this thing yet. Before reversing I think we should see 0.9485
Yeah i closed my position out for only 6 pips profit. Whatever. Now short dollar against yen for a while. While hopefully close that one out (short from 94 target 50) before europe open - when i will look to buy the dollar against aussie and jpy.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,666
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:38pm Jul 27, 2008 11:38pm
Quoting CodeMuncher
Attachment

Just wait for 3
3 what?
  • #1,667
  • Edited Jul 28, 2008 12:41am Jul 27, 2008 11:58pm | Edited Jul 28, 2008 12:41am
Hi guys - I see a lot of fuss here about AUD and 0.9527 was exactly a 61.8 retracement from the largest wave moving up, not to mentioned it coincided with a level that has held up very strong throughout AUD's history out here. I wasnt around to take the trade, but I think some form of sizable retracement would be due if liquidity allows. If not, and you get a close below it, look at the .9478 support level for the next round of buys, followed by .9453, about. Just keep your eyes on those commodities, particularly gold, in the event of any major selling. Looking at the charts, AUD's correlation to gold seems to be a little stronger than normal in the last few weeks (normally around 80% more or less) so any major turning points in risk could maintain a decline, but so far so good. Always just keep your eyes on where the money is flowing....its got to be going somewhere.

For those that don't know, to add a little bit about the meaning of Fxorce's comments, risk aversion tends to spur carry trade selloffs, particularly you'll notice, of course, with JPY-pegged currencies, where the rate is so low.......AUD/JPY is a big carry trade pair for obvious reasons and further unwinding would follow sentiment across all major markets - equities decline worldwide, usually you'll get the carry selloff; happens over and over again. Areas with the most influence on these currencies are of course the ones to watch - so in our market we watch equity markets in the Eurozone and US more heavily than others, where the most money is getting cranked into these pairs. Lack of risk tolerance in these markets tend to lead to the eventual selloffs.

But in terms of trading the actual pair short term there are plenty of bounces to take advantage of. Above I listed a couple, but they're basically everywhere. Gold bounces around just as much as anything else, but AUD is still pegged to the dollar, which is subject to selling off short term. Look at all the angles is my best advice, and if there is strong conviction, go for the long haul. Keep your eyes focused on consumer spending, employment data and inflation meters.

In general here we're talking about capital flows, not just gold, equity markets, government-backed securities, etc. The money is always there; its just flowing from one asset class into another. Most people are essentially forced to hold onto riskier assets, so the potentials surrounding day to day movements are what we take advantage of playing these levels. Just keep your eyes wide open in terms of your surroundings in order to best judge when to call it quits.

The way we trade, as daytraders, we're constantly on the lookout for short-term market hysterics. We're not looking for assets to invest in over the next 2 years or even 4 months. We need to look at whats driving price at this particular point in time, because we're taking part in such a small chunk of the overall movement.
  • #1,668
  • Jul 28, 2008 1:10am Jul 28, 2008 1:10am
Quoting Donadoney
BRV

Do you wait till the 1 hour bar approaching support/resistance is closed to enter and then watch what the next one does?

I know you play these moves off a lower timeframe than the 1 hour chart, however if indeed you do break through the resistance point with the 1 hour bar, I'm assuming you'd be at a loss, if all you did was expet a reversal. Therefore are you monitoring price action and momentum as price approaches the sup/res to assess a bounce or a follow through?

PS I read everything, I'm just trying to confirm so to speak.

Thanks.
Hi Donadoney - Thats okay no prob...I always take the trades right at the levels; I dont wait for closes. Waiting will get you in late and destroy your very much needed buffer room in case the trade goes against you and also take away some good profit that could be had if you were to hold off. At that point then yes, you're watching the closes and other price action as a meter in terms of what to expect next.
  • #1,669
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:28am Jul 28, 2008 3:28am
Hi

Closed out the cable trade. It seems to have hit the tail end of some previous lows.
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  • #1,670
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:07am Jul 28, 2008 4:07am
Hi BillyRay please could you give a bit more detail on why you are looking at......[quote=BillyRayValentine;2131131] look at the .9478 support level for the next round of buys, followed by .9453, about.
Looking at the chart below I see support at .9500/.9510 as round numbers plus this area being hit as support more so than .9478....... what am I not seeing here?
Attached Image
  • #1,671
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:32am Jul 28, 2008 4:32am
[quote=leis;2131708]Hi BillyRay please could you give a bit more detail on why you are looking at......
Quoting BillyRayValentine
look at the .9478 support level for the next round of buys, followed by .9453, about.
Looking at the chart below I see support at .9500/.9510 as round numbers plus this area being hit as support more so than .9478....... what am I not seeing here?
Hi leis, .9478 is the low of the last major wave up, and the .9450 area is a historical support level sitting on a 76.4 retracement.
  • #1,672
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:34am Jul 28, 2008 4:34am
EUR/JPY setting up for a nice short. Touched 169.55. If it hits 169.70 I'm in, if I don't fall alseep. I've been trading since the AUD session started. 11.5 hours. Going to wake up the wife to trade the U.S. session in a couple hours. I wish I was a robot. Never sleep!
  • #1,673
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:46am Jul 28, 2008 4:46am
Looks like its good for 70pips possibly ..... you can dream about it ha ha ....
  • #1,674
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:52am Jul 28, 2008 4:52am
Thanks billyray I see what you mean .....
Hi leis, .9478 is the low of the last major wave up, and the .9450 area is a historical support level sitting on a 76.4 retracement.[/quote]
  • #1,675
  • Jul 28, 2008 5:39am Jul 28, 2008 5:39am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I think the issue we are having in this thread lately (not just you Grath please hear me out and dont take this the wrong way) in regards to your last question about how to identify these levels, is the same problem you get when the "information inbox" starts to get too high. The thread here is getting pretty long, and the one of the main reasons I started this thread was because identifying these levels is so damn easy, but tons of retail traders ignore them so often.
Thanks, Billy. Your advice is much appreciated. I will focus on finding horizontal S/R levels for a start. And I'll get back into re-reading all the threads within this thread.
  • #1,676
  • Edited 6:15am Jul 28, 2008 6:12am | Edited 6:15am
Quoting Seaward22
EUR/JPY setting up for a nice short. Touched 169.55. If it hits 169.70 I'm in, if I don't fall alseep. I've been trading since the AUD session started. 11.5 hours. Going to wake up the wife to trade the U.S. session in a couple hours. I wish I was a robot. Never sleep!
Hi Seaward,
im not finished reading all the information in this thread. I still working on it and try to understand it. Its great that u are posting your plan what to do next.
So my question is: why 169.70 and not 170.00
Hope u dont mind if its a silly question
MJ
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  • #1,677
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:53am Jul 28, 2008 10:53am
Quoting Seaward22
EUR/JPY setting up for a nice short. Touched 169.55. If it hits 169.70 I'm in, if I don't fall alseep. I've been trading since the AUD session started. 11.5 hours. Going to wake up the wife to trade the U.S. session in a couple hours. I wish I was a robot. Never sleep!
I was aiming to short either at 169.70 or 170.00. Entered short at 169.68 since the price seems hard to break 169.70 level. Now already +47 pips.
Good call Seaward22.
  • #1,678
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:55am Jul 28, 2008 10:55am
Anyone here have any recommendations for mobile technologies? When I travel I want to continue trading and also when I go to another room in my house so that I don't miss a trade. Currently looking at tethering a PDA to my laptop, which is less expensive than using a Verizon air card.

BTW, thanks to BRV for letting some light into the mystery of this process. My success rate is around 90% now. Previously it was 10%.

Thanks

Daniel
  • #1,679
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:02am Jul 28, 2008 11:02am
Quoting Daniel
Anyone here have any recommendations for mobile technologies? When I travel I want to continue trading and also when I go to another room in my house so that I don't miss a trade. Currently looking at tethering a PDA to my laptop, which is less expensive than using a Verizon air card.

BTW, thanks to BRV for letting some light into the mystery of this process. My success rate is around 90% now. Previously it was 10%.

Thanks

Daniel

I am currently using HTC 8525/Hermes with windows mobile 6 and I take my phone to work as well so basically it works wonders. All you have to do is to add an Internet package to your existing phone plan. Sunday at 4pm (US time) I was at the beach trading the Sydney session open. It just feels so nice.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,680
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:11am Jul 28, 2008 11:11am
Quoting Siam
Hi

Closed out the cable trade. It seems to have hit the tail end of some previous lows.
Hey Siam,

Saw the same thing and took this out for +40 pips. Nice little trade.

THE HUN.
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