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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #381
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:07am Feb 9, 2007 9:07am
Whats going on with the EURO/USD? I have a short in at 1.3009. But I don't feel comfortable with this one.
  • #382
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:10am Feb 9, 2007 9:10am
Quoting turk87
Whats going on with the EURO/USD? I have a short in at 1.3009. But I don't feel comfortable with this one.
It shows 1.2990 on my chart (NF) at this time and bumping against 365sma maybe its time to take half profits and move sl to break even. It may go down to 89ma
  • #383
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:16am Feb 9, 2007 9:16am
Time to buy GBP/USD !!!
  • #384
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:20am Feb 9, 2007 9:20am
Quoting Phillip Nel
-------------------------------------------------------------------
I just got home and saw the replies about an Eur going upwards and when I had a look I could not believe what I have written. I must have had the UsdYen in mind as that was the one we were taken out. The strategy clearly shows a round top as well as a double top off resistance so it was very obvious that a downmove was on the cards. My mind was definitely not by what I was doing. It won't happen again.

I am going to stick to only the EurUsd and the GbpUsd as they are the ones I have tested. I am not going to give signals on the other.
it's ok, Phillip. I feel those 'filthy' just played revenge on your tsunami revelations. But I am with you on eur/usd pair. Please, continue to teach us. we have to discern the right singals ourselves and try not to be overzealous.
  • #385
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:22am Feb 9, 2007 9:22am
A wealthy old lady decides to go on a photo safari in Africa, taking her faithful, elderly poodle named Cuddles, along for the company.

One day the old poodle starts chasing butterflies and before long, Cuddles discovers that he's lost. Wandering about, he notices a leopard heading rapidly in his direction with the intention of having lunch.

The old poodle thinks, "Oh, oh! I'm in deep doo-doo now!" Noticing some bones on the ground close by, he immediately settles down to chew on the bones with his back to the approaching cat. Just as the leopard is about to leap the old poodle exclaims loudly, "Boy, that was one delicious leopard! I wonder if there are any more around here?"

Hearing this, the young leopard halts his attack in mid-strike, a look of terror comes over him and he slinks away into the trees. "Whew!", says the leopard, "That was close! That old poodle nearly had me!"

Meanwhile, a monkey who had been watching the whole scene from a nearby tree, figures he can put this knowledge to good use and trade it for protection from the leopard. So off he goes, but the old poodle sees him heading after the leopard with great speed, and figures that something must be up.

The monkey soon catches up with the leopard, spills the beans and strikes a deal for himself with the leopard.

The young leopard is furious at being made a fool of and says, "Here, monkey, hop on my back and see what's going to happen to that conniving canine!

Now, the old poodle sees the leopard coming with the monkey on his back and thinks, "What am I going to do now?", but instead of running, the dog sits down with his back to his attackers, pretending he hasn't seen them yet, and just when they get close enough to hear, the old poodle says...

"Where's that @##### monkey? I sent him off an hour ago to bring me another leopard!

Moral of this story....

Don't mess with old f @ rts...age and skill will always overcome youth and treachery! Bullsh # t and brilliance only come with age and experience.
  • #386
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:25am Feb 9, 2007 9:25am
  • #387
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:28am Feb 9, 2007 9:28am
Quoting turk87
Whats going on with the EURO/USD? I have a short in at 1.3009. But I don't feel comfortable with this one.
It surely is jumping up/down/up. If you wont mind taken out at breakeven making no profit it is OK to set to breakeven and give it rope to just above 89SMA for some profit or you can take some now and set to breakeven. Only my opinion.

There is a small trend line starting 07/02/2007. Found support on it.
  • #388
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:30am Feb 9, 2007 9:30am
Quoting Phillip Nel
A wealthy old lady decides to go on a photo safari in Africa, taking her faithful, elderly poodle named Cuddles, along for the company.

One day the old poodle starts chasing butterflies and before long, Cuddles discovers that he's lost. Wandering about, he notices a leopard heading rapidly in his direction with the intention of having lunch.

The old poodle thinks, "Oh, oh! I'm in deep doo-doo now!" Noticing some bones on the ground close by, he immediately settles down to chew on the bones with his back to the approaching cat. Just as the leopard is about to leap the old poodle exclaims loudly, "Boy, that was one delicious leopard! I wonder if there are any more around here?"

Hearing this, the young leopard halts his attack in mid-strike, a look of terror comes over him and he slinks away into the trees. "Whew!", says the leopard, "That was close! That old poodle nearly had me!"

Meanwhile, a monkey who had been watching the whole scene from a nearby tree, figures he can put this knowledge to good use and trade it for protection from the leopard. So off he goes, but the old poodle sees him heading after the leopard with great speed, and figures that something must be up.

The monkey soon catches up with the leopard, spills the beans and strikes a deal for himself with the leopard.

The young leopard is furious at being made a fool of and says, "Here, monkey, hop on my back and see what's going to happen to that conniving canine!

Now, the old poodle sees the leopard coming with the monkey on his back and thinks, "What am I going to do now?", but instead of running, the dog sits down with his back to his attackers, pretending he hasn't seen them yet, and just when they get close enough to hear, the old poodle says...

"Where's that @##### monkey? I sent him off an hour ago to bring me another leopard!

Moral of this story....

Don't mess with old f @ rts...age and skill will always overcome youth and treachery! Bullsh # t and brilliance only come with age and experience.
Phil,u r one damed funny guy but i appreciate both your system and your humour,keep up the good work!!!
  • #389
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:32am Feb 9, 2007 9:32am
15:30 GMT

I'm in too... trying to pull out a quick 25 pips. I figured that it's friday and there wouldn't be enough momentum to work through the EMA and would come down to the other EMA or close. Along with the signal I thought it would be ok. Maybe flawed thinking? We'll see I guess.

Piece of the Pie, what makes you sure to go long on GBP/USD. I'm still more than a little skeptical, but the signal may come. I"m just curious.


Quoting irusoh
It shows 1.2990 on my chart (NF) at this time and bumping against 365sma maybe its time to take half profits and move sl to break even. It may go down to 89ma
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #390
  • Feb 9, 2007 10:16am Feb 9, 2007 10:16am
Quoting Phillip Nel
A wealthy old lady decides to go on a photo safari
Having fun while learning, you the man, Phillip
  • #391
  • Feb 9, 2007 11:14am Feb 9, 2007 11:14am
Yes, thanks Phillip

I am getting the hang of this now. Will certainly be part of my regular trading in future.

Dankie!
H
  • #392
  • Feb 9, 2007 11:15am Feb 9, 2007 11:15am
Hi Phillip & all,

If I set MACD signal period to 3 it giving me more confidence when round top/bottom and other patterns formed.
Please take a look and share ur opinion
Attached Image
in
  • #393
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:16pm Feb 9, 2007 1:16pm
Hello Philip,

WOW - what an outstanding method you've provided. And you teach it very well.
Now I must add my questions

I walked and worked through your pdf-files you attached earlier this thread where you explained trade by trade why you entered, where to put s/l etc.
What I recognized was that you add 8ma and 21ma to the charts but never refer to them.
Your decisions of trade entry and money management don't need those MA's? Or do I have overlooked somewhere something?

Once again, WELL DONE - since you opened this thread I followed and papertraded, and soon this will become my no.1
At the and of that pdf you asked if it is good for teaching others.
YES, IT IS !
42
  • #394
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:13pm Feb 9, 2007 3:13pm
Quoting irusoh
Good Morning Phillip,

As I was watching gbpusd last night, I didn't have a good feeling about the round bottom it was forming. This looked more like a flag formation ( a continuation pattern) especially as it bounced against 8ema. So I stayed out.

Could you comment on flag formation psychology as a small sidewyas movement slightly against the trend before the next big move. Actually it happens quite often in a trendning market.

As it found resistance against the 200SMA you could see it as a flag in a downmove. It was just that the trendline I drew that made me not exept as a flag. When the morning star did not mature fully I knew something was up but I still believed it will go up. But I only would have enetred above the 200SMA.
  • #395
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:25pm Feb 9, 2007 3:25pm
Quoting Freewheelin
Hello Philip,

WOW - what an outstanding method you've provided. And you teach it very well.
Now I must add my questions

I walked and worked through your pdf-files you attached earlier this thread where you explained trade by trade why you entered, where to put s/l etc.
What I recognized was that you add 8ma and 21ma to the charts but never refer to them.
Your decisions of trade entry and money management don't need those MA's? Or do I have overlooked somewhere something?

Once again, WELL DONE - since you opened this thread I followed and papertraded, and soon this will become my no.1
At the and of that pdf you asked if it is good for teaching others.
YES, IT IS !

If you look at page 12 you will notice that when there is a strong trend the price will retrace back into the 8and 21EMA and then proceed with the trend. As long as you are in a position and the price action do that you stay in the trade till it brakes below the 21EMA. It helps with the stoploss. When the price moves abovethe 8EMA in an uptrend and the MACD gives a signal (round top etc.)your first profit target is the 21EMA if the R:R ratio is OK. Remember that when the price is above the 8EMA in an uptrend a round top signal given is a pullback to the 21EMA and then then the trend might continue. Will give some examples.
  • #396
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:43pm Feb 9, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting metto
Hi Phillip & all,

If I set MACD signal period to 3 it giving me more confidence when round top/bottom and other patterns formed.
Please take a look and share ur opinion
Hello what is the indicator telling the time left to the end of the candle??
Rien ne sert de courir il faut partir à point.
  • #397
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:47pm Feb 9, 2007 3:47pm
When looking at the chart you will see that the price retraces back to the 21EMA and then continue the uptrend.

At A the MACD gave a short signal that if there is enough pips to be made to the 21EMA and the R:R ratio is OK then the deal is on. Take full profit in the area B. Then the MACD shows a long signal at C which are taken and due to the speed of the market the stoploss can be set just below the 21EMA and follwed upwards. You can still use price leves as resistance and set your stops according etc.

When the price is trending it normally breaks through the 89SMA and then pulls back to the 21EMA and then when it continues it could be the start of a strong trend.
Attached Image
  • #398
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:17pm Feb 9, 2007 4:17pm
Quoting metto
Hi Phillip & all,

If I set MACD signal period to 3 it giving me more confidence when round top/bottom and other patterns formed.
Please take a look and share ur opinion

You can do that. It just might be that your entries will be a 4hour candle later or you will have to enter on motion inbetween a 4hour which I dont like.
  • #399
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:23pm Feb 9, 2007 4:23pm
Phillip,

now it's understood - and your example caused another question. Sorry...

At point C (continuation pattern) the price seems to be too close to 1.3200, a "special" price level. Would or do you have entered that trade? If so, then I think S/L would be set to 21ma? Please be kind and tell us what you have in mind if you have entered that trade.

Manymany thanks again for your work.

Freewheelin
(a german in greece)
42
  • #400
  • Edited 4:39pm Feb 9, 2007 4:23pm | Edited 4:39pm
Don't try to take every signal the MACD is given. When there is none on the EurUsd or the GbpUsd we jump to other pairs and then we are actually looking for a trade and it is not going to be long and we will find one. You must not look for a trade. If the system does not have one there is not one.

Stay with the currencies you are fimiliar with.

The facts are in front of me therefore I will do this and that
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