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  • #1,621
  • Jul 26, 2008 10:03am Jul 26, 2008 10:03am
What do you guys think of this trade?

I think its going to bounce off 1.0400 and go all the way down to 1.0000.
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  • #1,622
  • Jul 26, 2008 10:15am Jul 26, 2008 10:15am
Quoting europeanson7
What do you guys think of this trade?

I think its going to bounce off 1.0400 and go all the way down to 1.0000.
I was just looking at that one - I made some money in it yesterday, but got out because I thought it might gap up over the weekend - I am hoping to get in above 1.0400 and ride it down. The highs for each of the past 3 days have been right around 1.0400 - something has to give.
  • #1,623
  • Jul 26, 2008 10:20am Jul 26, 2008 10:20am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
As we are all well aware of, the positions of retail traders comprise an extremely small percentage of the total trading population....

<snip>

...Realize the obvious, react quickly, use your edge, and the rest will follow.
BillyRay:

I've remained largely silent as I've followed this thread from the very beginning. But, I have to say, your commitment to instructing and educating on this forum is literally unmatched. Honestly, I don't know where you get the energy and motivation to do it, but those of us who read and digest every point you make are much, much better traders because of it.

I'm sure I speak for most of the long list of names present at the bottom of each page--those who are reading this thread--when I say how much we appreciate your insights and guidance.

Ed
Indicators are to Price as Newspapers are to Bloomberg.
  • #1,624
  • Jul 26, 2008 10:31am Jul 26, 2008 10:31am
Quoting europeanson7
What do you guys think of this trade?

I think its going to bounce off 1.0400 and go all the way down to 1.0000.

I think that I will short this pair early next week. I like to use fundamentals in my decision. I think that we will stay in range early in the week depending on data we will see. I am pretty sure that we will break out at the end of the week by the Non Farm payroll number. Big moves are possible next week.
  • #1,625
  • Jul 26, 2008 10:33am Jul 26, 2008 10:33am
Again excellent article Billy.
I am so glad we have a thread like this on this forum. Trading using common sense and logic...no fancy forum retail trader stuff.

  • #1,626
  • Jul 26, 2008 10:53am Jul 26, 2008 10:53am
Quoting intrieri22
.....the historical S/Rs before. Are pivot points something you consider - I have always had them on my charts and am having trouble letting go!............
I myself use pivot levels and I think if we put them on our charts for enough time we realize they do have significance as lot of traders put their orders at pivot levels. But I only use daily pivot and not s1,r1 etc. And these work best when they coincide with a recent s/r level, although sometimes they work as standalone too.


eg. On Friday USDCHF bounced from pivot level (1.0353) thrice and bounced quite hard and more importantly the pivot was coinciding with Thursday's s/r level.

Also for coming Monday I will be looking at UJ 107.44 which will be a daily pivot for Monday as well as a known s/r level. These are good for scalps.

  • #1,627
  • Jul 26, 2008 10:57am Jul 26, 2008 10:57am
Quoting good
I myself use pivot levels and I think if we put them on our charts for enough time we realize they do have significance as lot of traders put their orders at pivot levels. But I only use daily pivot and not s1,r1 etc. And these work best when they coincide with a recent s/r level, although sometimes they work as standalone too.


eg. On Friday USDCHF bounced from pivot level (1.0353) twice and bounced quite hard and more importantly the pivot was coinciding with Thursday's s/r level.

Also for Monday I will be looking at UJ 107.44 which will be a daily pivot for Monday as well as a known s/r level. These are good for scalps.

I appreciate your feedback - I have had some luck with pivot points, but you are right - only the pivot point itself seems to matter and when coupled with s/r levels that are established, you have a great set-up. Should be an exciting week next week - I am watching 4 different trade setups that we have talked about here. This is all starting to make more sense. It's a great feeling to have a little more control over where to get into the markets and to actually understand why we are looking at it that way.
  • #1,628
  • Jul 26, 2008 11:23am Jul 26, 2008 11:23am
Quoting daanman3
I think that I will short this pair early next week. I like to use fundamentals in my decision. I think that we will stay in range early in the week depending on data we will see. I am pretty sure that we will break out at the end of the week by the Non Farm payroll number. Big moves are possible next week.
So do you think the Non Farm number will increase or decrease the price?

Thanks for clarification.

Also, could tell me where you get the data that your baseing this analysis on?
  • #1,629
  • Jul 26, 2008 11:48am Jul 26, 2008 11:48am
Kudos on a most excellent thread Billy Ray. I finally finished the whole thread and just wanted to say thanks. Later
  • #1,630
  • Jul 26, 2008 11:58am Jul 26, 2008 11:58am
Quoting europeanson7
So do you think the Non Farm number will increase or decrease the price?

Thanks for clarification.

Also, could tell me where you get the data that your baseing this analysis on?
Yes sure. On July 15th we had the ZEW Sentiment number released. It came out much worse than expected, but the Eur/Usd went to record highs. If the data would have been on consensus or better than expected, we would have gone to around 1.6200 minimum. It shows that traders don't want to buy dollars. This was also based on the uncertainty about the financials in the U.S like Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae. Now a bill has been passed today to provide these Mortgage companies some support.This could be slightly better for the dollar. If the data coming out this week is on consensus, then we might not break out of the range. If it is bad for the dollar, then it will be very good for Eur and Chf.

I think that the Nonfarm number will come out worst than expected because of previous data. I won't be making any trades based on this alone because it is a prediction and could be wrong. I have more information but this is my main reasoning for the week ahead.

I will not be looking for huge pips in one trade this week because of the chance for big moves. I will only be looking for 20pips per trade.

If you want some guaranteed money, then watch the Eur/Usd and see if it breaks 1.6000 or 1.5300. This is the most straight forward trade I can see at this moment.
  • #1,631
  • Jul 26, 2008 12:59pm Jul 26, 2008 12:59pm
Billy Ray thanks for your all the advice and yr last post with chart is an absolute must to print and study
  • #1,632
  • Jul 26, 2008 1:25pm Jul 26, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi J, usually the more recent waves going in the opposite direction hold the most significance; I always start with those. I use fibs as a guide and then try to nail it down by looking back the last few times the area was hit.

I start with a 4hr, and then confirm with a 1hr.

The reason for this is that different people across the world are looking at different highs and lows on both 4hr and daily charts (depending on the situation, but not all the time), because they have different closes (their charts are set to thier own time zone, of course). But every 1hr, 15min, 5min bar across the world looks the same, with the same values of open, high, low, close.

Consistency is the #1 priority of trading this way in general, so thats why I do it that way. But I mean as far back as it takes, using the most recent data with perhaps more relevance.
Will keep this all in mind when doing my analysis. The UBS data you posted is also helpful since it identifies key price levels. I hope to have something to contribute before soon and look forward to your feedback. Made about $600 on a mini since getting on this thread a few days ago so I owe you a beer.

Thanks for all the work you put in. Looks like it's paying off for everyone.

Jim
  • #1,633
  • Jul 26, 2008 2:43pm Jul 26, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting Grath
I don't think this qualifies as a 'No Brainer' but I'm looking for feedback to tell me if I am even beginning to understand the principles.

Looking at the H4 and D1 charts, it seems to me that if the £$ breaks the psychological 1.9999, it is likely to retrace at 2.0075 on the fib76, where there was previous resistance. This is based on a preponderance of fib76 over fib62. Is the retrace more likely to occur at 2.0027 on the fib62 would you say? Am I thinking straight?

Can anyone give me any pointers on how to identify a real 'No Brainer' from the charts?
I think the issue we are having in this thread lately (not just you Grath please hear me out and dont take this the wrong way) in regards to your last question about how to identify these levels, is the same problem you get when the "information inbox" starts to get too high. The thread here is getting pretty long, and the one of the main reasons I started this thread was because identifying these levels is so damn easy, but tons of retail traders ignore them so often.

Out there is general there is a rediculous amount of information available to currency traders; unfortunately most of the information targeting the retail market is the wrong information, and its no wonder the losing statistic is what it is. What it does though is makes us confused, thinking things are really a lot more complex than they really are, clouding our brains and looking for something that's oh so complicated, when in fact the easiest thing found right on our charts and in the daily news is going to be the thing that leads us to the most profits.

Grath in regards to your question I would just lean back from the chart and take a look at what's the most obvious thing you see in front of you. Which levels have held the best, and has enough time passed from the time they were last hit to cause them to be a good reactionary level. Also if the levels have been taken out recently they have a lesser chance of sticking in general. Also look at the last move down and see where you could get a potential hit.

I would just reread the main articles here and try to get a better idea of actually how easy the idea is in general....dont overthink it; its really pretty basic and common sense. Just simplify it and if you dont see anything to the upside on GBP that looks good then look for another pair to trade.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If I dont see anything that sticks out like a sore thumb I dont force the issue and wont trade it and find a pair where something obvious is staring me in the face. Your probability level sinks down the tubes once levels get hard to identify. Like here on GBP, its starting to look like a mess to the upside, identifying a clear short is pretty risky in this range; I probably wouldnt look to trade it short, but downside it gets a little easier, so I might look for longs.
  • #1,634
  • Jul 26, 2008 2:55pm Jul 26, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting Greenhaze
Excellent article Brv but i have one question:

""Point B: Price exceeds the level by more than a comfortable amount (we’re looking for it to hit it exactly and reverse). Additionally, we have an up close on the 1hr bar that is almost right on top of the level. We close our new short position with only a couple pips of profit. Price exceeds the level, and then uses it as support. We open a long right on the level when we see this.""

How would you manage to close this position with couple pips of profits?
There was about 6 pip move downside. How would you know to close this position this early?
Hi Greenhaze, on a trade like this we were looking for price to hit right on the head and reverse as its not a long term level that hasnt been seen in a while; the level was just used recently as resistance, declining probability a bit. If it was a support level we were using as resistance our chances of success are much higher. Also the hourly close was pretty strong to the upside, meaning a good lack of sellers out there in general.
  • #1,635
  • Jul 26, 2008 3:14pm Jul 26, 2008 3:14pm
The 1.5800 - 1.5822 area is looking ripe for a short.
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  • #1,636
  • Jul 26, 2008 3:20pm Jul 26, 2008 3:20pm
The 1.0250-1.0255 area is looking ripe for a buy.
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  • #1,637
  • Jul 26, 2008 4:08pm Jul 26, 2008 4:08pm
BRV,

"Reality Realization and Trader Reaction in Regards to Market Forces", simply a spectacular post. Many thanks for the endless supply of invaluable information you provide to the people fortunate enough to have stumbled across this thread!
  • #1,638
  • Jul 26, 2008 4:54pm Jul 26, 2008 4:54pm
Quoting pipeye
The 1.0250-1.0255 area is looking ripe for a buy.
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Just wait for 3
  • #1,639
  • Jul 26, 2008 6:07pm Jul 26, 2008 6:07pm
Typical formation previous to superb uptrend, last time in this par (EURUSD) go for +800 pips in 6 weeks. Check it yourself at jul - aug /2007.
Go bros for our month salary!!
Best Luck.
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  • #1,640
  • Jul 26, 2008 8:25pm Jul 26, 2008 8:25pm
Quoting pipeye
The 1.0250-1.0255 area is looking ripe for a buy.
Now you're thinking. I was thinking just a few pips higher though around 60, which would be the top of that spike back on Jul 17th.
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