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  • #1,581
  • Jul 25, 2008 12:43am Jul 25, 2008 12:43am
Excellent info thanks , do you ever sleep ??? this mans a machine ....ha ha
  • #1,582
  • Jul 25, 2008 12:43am Jul 25, 2008 12:43am
Quoting Lou
I am trying to decide, looking at the graph, does one join the crowd? Or is the crowd as shown, the losing 95%?

Did anyone ever think : If 95% of traders don't make it. and 5% do, where are the 5% on this graph? We can see where most traders are positioned (Oanda traders only). Just wondering...
I think you were right the first time; 95% are losing. Again this is just retail data.....now you see where the statistic comes from....sooooo many people getting burnt on this eur spike down....thats a lot of money right there....and its all going int o someone elses pocket (guess who).
  • #1,583
  • Jul 25, 2008 12:51am Jul 25, 2008 12:51am
Quoting intrieri22
Hello everyone - looking back at many of my trades, I feel I place my stops too close. Following this thread - I will be using the 40-pip stop loss. However, today I had two trades that turned out very positive - but my fear got the best of me and I had my stops too close - any advice? I am sure just using a larger stop will make the difference. I am afraid of losing money so I lose money. I am still going through the learning stages - but have picked up a lot here that makes sense. Any feedback would be appreciated - btw - AUD/USD really took off - at a higher level than I anticipated - I missed it
I think when you said "I am afraid of losing money so I lose money" just about says it all. Its why the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, etc etc.

If you've got a good trade going, and, I'm not sure how long you have been trading for, but if you're looking to build an account, just get a good statistic going in terms of a win rate using these levels and take your profits a little early just to get some money in your account; it doesnt hurt. Especially when you're looking to build up an account just take the money and run, get a good buffer, and you'll have a lot less fear in letting things run going forward. My best advice I suppose. And yeah, it looks like we'll get the dollar shorts going today so far; not getting into it but across the board we're seeing major swings in direction of price today.
  • #1,584
  • Jul 25, 2008 12:53am Jul 25, 2008 12:53am
Quoting avatarx51
Im in the same boat as you fairly new to forex less then a month just started live a week or so ago. overall im down but i kinda expected that many times i closed out a deal when it was going agaisnt me then 1hr later i come and see i would have made money.. and there have been times i was up many pips but didnt close it and lost it instead i guess this is the learning stage i just hope it doesnt cost me alot
best thing to do is just focus on perfecting your entries so you've got as little drawdown as possible on all of your trades.....it will give you the comfort level you need to move ahead successfully. and dont miss a beat, enter late, etc. also if you're learning, use very small lot sizes (but not demo); dont seek to hit it out of the park. and yes, have a stop loss, but also have patience.
  • #1,585
  • Jul 25, 2008 1:00am Jul 25, 2008 1:00am
Quoting JackButler
Thanks, Bill. I already started setting up my 4hr charts with s/r levels and fibs. It's starting to come together. I did short some USDJPY at 170.90 where it was stalling and took my at 30 pips and head out the door.

Question: How far back should you look on say a 4hr chart to determine your fib range?

Thanks for your input.

J
Hi J, usually the more recent waves going in the opposite direction hold the most significance; I always start with those. I use fibs as a guide and then try to nail it down by looking back the last few times the area was hit.

I start with a 4hr, and then confirm with a 1hr.

The reason for this is that different people across the world are looking at different highs and lows on both 4hr and daily charts (depending on the situation, but not all the time), because they have different closes (their charts are set to thier own time zone, of course). But every 1hr, 15min, 5min bar across the world looks the same, with the same values of open, high, low, close.

Consistency is the #1 priority of trading this way in general, so thats why I do it that way. But I mean as far back as it takes, using the most recent data with perhaps more relevance.
  • #1,586
  • Jul 25, 2008 1:06am Jul 25, 2008 1:06am
Quoting pipeye
Just a heads-up. If you look at the recent rise off the bottom from 192.54 as a correction in the longer term downtrend, then the correction could be complete at 215.87. The reason for this is you often get measures of equality in the corrective legs, and as you can see Leg A=1625 pips and Leg C=1610 pips. Considering the bear market that equities are entrenched in, this could be the resumption of the downtrend off of the 215.87 high. This is not a trade recommendation, but an observation for potential rallies to sell into (the 213.80 area just screams out).
Looks that way short term; I'll tell you one thing there's a good amount of risk aversion going on so I would keep my eye on USD/JPY levels for any clues of a reversal on this one (to the upside)....either way it retraced like nuts from that trendline....good catch.
  • #1,587
  • Jul 25, 2008 1:10am Jul 25, 2008 1:10am
Quoting pastork
i am long nzd/usd @.7382 that is a historical support that has held its grounds over time and i am looking at it making +500pips, what do you think considering there was a rate cut recently,would this affect it in the long run, iam up +25pips pls reply
In my honest opinion I dont think you're going to get anywhere near 500 pips out of a long nzd trade nowadays. That economy is in terrible shape, and now we have a rate cut, and we also have carry trade selloffs as the current theme the last few days and today. I would take the money and run at a comfortable level. USD is going to get hit in the near future, I suspect, so you might have a little stamina in that trade but doesnt look too good.
  • #1,588
  • Jul 25, 2008 1:11am Jul 25, 2008 1:11am
Quoting imad
hi BRV
your thread is amazing , thank you so much i have lerned from your thread so much
just a suggestion , maybe it would be great if you can post a chart when you make en entry , like these entries you have on the forst post and you update frequantly . like this we can learn more .
thanks and regards
Hi imad, thank you. Are you talking about just posting trades? They're all over the thread. Is that what you mean?
  • #1,589
  • Jul 25, 2008 1:12am Jul 25, 2008 1:12am
any possible entries tonight? I can see the pound getting destroyed if the GDP is worse than expected, look what retail sales did last night
  • #1,590
  • Jul 25, 2008 1:13am Jul 25, 2008 1:13am
Quoting imad
brv
for example EJ you have it still running and it is at 50 fibo level and at support . what is the reason you dont take the profit and close the position . why you let is retrace on you .
regards
Hi imad, please read the notes under the performance on the first page where you're looking. And then please read the posts in regards to taking profits. They will answer your questions. Thanks,
  • #1,591
  • Jul 25, 2008 2:50am Jul 25, 2008 2:50am
Quoting pipeye
Well to keep with the pound/swiss theme. If it ever makes it down to the 2.0495-2.0505 area, we should have a nice reaction with the confluence of the TL, 61.8%, and the monthly pivot.
Nice call on that seems like i jumped the gun a bit. Oh well they have been a coming thick and fast this week, It's friday afternoon here and time for a little R+R me thinks.
  • #1,592
  • Jul 25, 2008 4:26am Jul 25, 2008 4:26am
Quoting pipeye
Well to keep with the pound/swiss theme. If it ever makes it down to the 2.0495-2.0505 area, we should have a nice reaction with the confluence of the TL, 61.8%, and the monthly pivot.
Awesome call
This pair still scares me too much, but I think the next support level should be between 2.0436-2.0420. I think 36 is the better level...
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  • #1,593
  • Jul 25, 2008 4:30am Jul 25, 2008 4:30am
I believe this would qualify as a "no-brainer".
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  • #1,594
  • Edited 5:11am Jul 25, 2008 4:36am | Edited 5:11am
Looking to sell Euro - USD at 15759
good resistance

Also watch 15790 - 100% of the last range 4hr if 15759 fails

100% of the last range up 15min.

last 3 ranges up weekly chart
15879-50% weekly
15932 - 50% weekly
15842 - 50% weekly

last 3 range up daily chart

15842 - 50% daily
15790 - 100% daily
15815 - 100% daily

avg 15850
  • #1,595
  • Jul 25, 2008 5:48am Jul 25, 2008 5:48am
If you had to trade only 4 pairs what would you choose ???

Cheers Chris
  • #1,596
  • Jul 25, 2008 5:50am Jul 25, 2008 5:50am
Quoting demeo
If you had to trade only 4 pairs what would you choose ???

Cheers Chris
haha thats easy - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD - all the most predictable currency pairs.
  • #1,597
  • Jul 25, 2008 6:02am Jul 25, 2008 6:02am
Short GBP/USD 2.0070-2.0076

Pretty sure no ones called that yet, apologies if they have. On the way up I'm looking for the first op to go short at 1.9985-1.9994, then 2.0022-2.0028.

All good areas of S+R historically, all tieing in nicely with our 3 favourite fibo's. 2.0070-2.0076 is my favourite as its the 76.4 of the last run down. Of course I guess it might not have the legs to get up there....

On a different note I've finally fully converted to pure S+R and binned my last indicator - my stochastic is officially dead, hopefully never to return!
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  • #1,598
  • Jul 25, 2008 6:15am Jul 25, 2008 6:15am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I think when you said "I am afraid of losing money so I lose money" just about says it all. Its why the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, etc etc.

If you've got a good trade going, and, I'm not sure how long you have been trading for, but if you're looking to build an account, just get a good statistic going in terms of a win rate using these levels and take your profits a little early just to get some money in your account; it doesnt hurt. Especially when you're looking to build up an account just take the money and run, get a good buffer, and you'll have a lot less fear in letting things run going forward. My best advice I suppose. And yeah, it looks like we'll get the dollar shorts going today so far; not getting into it but across the board we're seeing major swings in direction of price today.
I will try to do that. I feel like I have a great opportunity now to get some winning trades underway. This is a great education and I appreciate your help. I will be watching for the EUR/USD short today that you indicated yesterday. Durable goods and new home sales report today and will probably be weak - so price could be pushed to our entry levels...
  • #1,599
  • Jul 25, 2008 6:27am Jul 25, 2008 6:27am
Quoting djambazov84
and by the way... for all chart pattern lovers...price closed above inverted head and shoulders on 30 min chart to confirm it as valid. could be an interesting result since I only see busted flags and h&s left and right for the past couple of months
It's great to be able to learn here. But navigating the threads is not as easy as it could be. For all newbies (like me) here's a plea to you guys who know what you're doing.....

Please always put the currency pair(s) in the Title area and link back to what you are commenting on with a quote (if it's not the start of a new thread).

I have a feeling that it might not be only me that's grateful if you do that.

Thanks!
  • #1,600
  • Jul 25, 2008 6:47am Jul 25, 2008 6:47am
Quoting finswin56
Long 1.9800-1.9790 Lots of S/R in this tight range plus good fib confluence. Not sure about how my fib is drawn, but I like this range even without it. Only problem is that would be after breaking through a trend line, which it is currently testing. Next area comes in at 1.9750's
Looks like I missed here by about 13 pips. So, I would probably take that off the table and look for the end of the ret. Not sure if it's been posted, but 2.0004 looks about right to me.
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