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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #361
  • Edited 9:17pm Feb 8, 2007 7:27pm | Edited 9:17pm
Quoting DireXiv
10:03 GMT

I did also. Thought it looked overall like a pretty solid setup... hoping it doesnt' continue. head and shoulders, above .45 MACD line, RSI maxes, tail/shadow up, way above ma's, with large price point for profit, and not that big of stoploss, along with a double top candle pattern (actually triple top) to boot as resistance from going higher...

watch out this breakout above 158.05. It moves there briskly.

EDIT time: 8:52 EST. Looks like those 'filthy' (as Phillip wrote in his tsunami letter) got us @158.30 (158.27 plus spread) and we could probably see a long tail from here (reversal). Do they read our posts I wonder, eh?
  • #362
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:08pm Feb 8, 2007 10:08pm
Is anyone still in the USD/JPY trade? Philip did you get stopped out? Its gone against us around 20 pips. I got my stop at 121.50
  • #363
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:16pm Feb 8, 2007 10:16pm
Quoting turk87
Is anyone still in the USD/JPY trade? Philip did you get stopped out? Its gone against us around 20 pips. I got my stop at 121.50
Yes. Got stopped out at 121.35. 24 pips. Was not 100% confortable from the start. Did not come off solid resistance but I liked the evening star. It found support on the 89SMA. Does not look good. Might form a small double top. I will stay with the EurUsd and GbpUsd in future. More relaxed with them.

The EurUsd and GbpUsd start to look good. Wait for the Eur to show MACD as a possible move upwards is very strong on the cards.
  • #364
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:39pm Feb 8, 2007 10:39pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The EurUsd and GbpUsd start to look good. Wait for the Eur to show MACD as a possible move upwards is very strong on the cards.
Can you give a bit more detail on this? as I do not see EUR/USD moving upwards.

Learning your system!

if you could post a chart on this will be appreciated!
"Quality means doing it right when no one is looking"
  • #365
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:48pm Feb 8, 2007 10:48pm
Philip do you have a file with a history of all of your LIVE trades under this system? If so, would you mind sending it to me? I would like to do some analysis.

I am currently making one, I currently have 3 trades recorded and charted, up 101 pips.
  • #366
  • Feb 8, 2007 11:18pm Feb 8, 2007 11:18pm
Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phillip Nel http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
The EurUsd and GbpUsd start to look good. Wait for the Eur to show MACD as a possible move upwards is very strong on the cards.

Can you give a bit more detail on this? as I do not see EUR/USD moving upwards.

Learning your system!

if you could post a chart on this will be appreciated!

Ya i do agree with you. It seem like stop at previous support trend line which become a resistance trend line. I would be wrong, those have other explaination please share with us.

Thanks
  • #367
  • Feb 9, 2007 12:47am Feb 9, 2007 12:47am
Hi really enjoying going over this method, I,m still getting my head around it and look foward to trading it
  • #368
  • Feb 9, 2007 12:51am Feb 9, 2007 12:51am
Guys, looks like EU in progress of Double-top and GU Round Bottom. I wait until 5:00 EST to confirm. Any comments?
  • #369
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:41am Feb 9, 2007 1:41am
Good setup on the eur this morning I went short and still on the trade now. I entered a bit late because I was still sleeping when the current bar opened, but it works nicely. I already took some profit out at the yellow line which is the 200 MA
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  • #370
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:56am Feb 9, 2007 3:56am
I had to wait until now to short in ~

no more major datas today.. wish it will work according to the chart
without intervention
"Quality means doing it right when no one is looking"
  • #371
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:27am Feb 9, 2007 4:27am
After the shart fall, it's still unable to breach the support line. So based on the trend line support, it will go long~~

Any1 got other opinion? Please share
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  • #372
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:15am Feb 9, 2007 6:15am
Quoting comeinvest
After the shart fall, it's still unable to breach the support line. So based on the trend line support, it will go long~~

Any1 got other opinion? Please share
it should at least hit the 9420 mark before it makes any major directional changes
  • #373
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:28am Feb 9, 2007 6:28am
Quoting comeinvest
After the shart fall, it's still unable to breach the support line. So based on the trend line support, it will go long~~

Any1 got other opinion? Please share
my opinion, after such fall, we'd rather wait for daily reversal candle before going long. I use vegas daily tunnel to eye-ball if cable still has some downward inertia. Cable has also just fallen out from the 20 Bollinger on the daily which, to me, is not good either, for the long.
  • #374
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:41am Feb 9, 2007 6:41am
12:40 GMT

haha! I saw your post right after I got taken out.... just barely by a few pips... oh well, live to fight another day. They got us this time.... maybe they do read the forum????? Phillip stop posting so much good information!


Quoting tamkras
watch out this breakout above 158.05. It moves there briskly.

EDIT time: 8:52 EST. Looks like those 'filthy' (as Phillip wrote in his tsunami letter) got us @158.30 (158.27 plus spread) and we could probably see a long tail from here (reversal). Do they read our posts I wonder, eh?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #375
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:53am Feb 9, 2007 6:53am
I am watching euro now as it rests on the neutral (macd) line. I do not like sitting it right under 200SMA. Any ideas, Phillip?
  • #376
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:56am Feb 9, 2007 6:56am
Quoting DireXiv
12:40 GMT

haha! I saw your post right after I got taken out.... just barely by a few pips... oh well, live to fight another day. They got us this time.... maybe they do read the forum????? Phillip stop posting so much good information!
I lost 11 pips on this as I manually close the deal. I saw a rounding bottom on 5-min chart and price jumping quickly.
  • #377
  • Feb 9, 2007 7:31am Feb 9, 2007 7:31am
Good Morning Phillip,

As I was watching gbpusd last night, I didn't have a good feeling about the round bottom it was forming. This looked more like a flag formation ( a continuation pattern) especially as it bounced against 8ema. So I stayed out.

Could you comment on flag formation psychology as a small sidewyas movement slightly against the trend before the next big move. Actually it happens quite often in a trendning market.
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  • #378
  • Feb 9, 2007 7:53am Feb 9, 2007 7:53am
I thought about closing manually, but I've been saved from losses with good stop losses so many times these past few weeks, I'm at the point where I just have confidence in my stop loss and if I get taken out... it's ok... the times before that I didn't and went on to make large gains. However when the morning star started getting overrun... I should have gotten out... but I was asleep...

Quoting tamkras
I lost 11 pips on this as I manually close the deal. I saw a rounding bottom on 5-min chart and price jumping quickly.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #379
  • Feb 9, 2007 8:05am Feb 9, 2007 8:05am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Yes. Got stopped out at 121.35. 24 pips. Was not 100% confortable from the start. Did not come off solid resistance but I liked the evening star. It found support on the 89SMA. Does not look good. Might form a small double top. I will stay with the EurUsd and GbpUsd in future. More relaxed with them.

The EurUsd and GbpUsd start to look good. Wait for the Eur to show MACD as a possible move upwards (Wrong)is very strong on the cards.
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I just got home and saw the replies about an Eur going upwards and when I had a look I could not believe what I have written. I must have had the UsdYen in mind as that was the one we were taken out. The strategy clearly shows a round top as well as a double top off resistance so it was very obvious that a downmove was on the cards. My mind was definitely not by what I was doing. It won't happen again.

I am going to stick to only the EurUsd and the GbpUsd as they are the ones I have tested. I am not going to give signals on the other.
  • #380
  • Feb 9, 2007 8:09am Feb 9, 2007 8:09am
Quoting irusoh
Good Morning Phillip,

As I was watching gbpusd last night, I didn't have a good feeling about the round bottom it was forming. This looked more like a flag formation ( a continuation pattern) especially as it bounced against 8ema. So I stayed out.

Could you comment on flag formation psychology as a small sidewyas movement slightly against the trend before the next big move. Actually it happens quite often in a trendning market.
Only a close above the 200SMA would have me interested. On any narrow or channel or triangle movement a breakout is going to occur sometime. One must be aware of that.
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