No Brainer Trades

Quoting TexasforEX

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Very interesting day indeed. The yen crosses plummeted but it was done via the USD.

(Noobs..ie, that means aud/usd went sharply while the usd/jpy was mainly flat)

I hate to admit that I had short eur/jpy and usd/jpy and I cut the eur/jpy and kept the usd/jpy..ouch. It got worse when I cut usd/jpy at 107.55 at basically BE. Double ouch.

My mental discipline was certainly tested today.

Market conditions, current weekly ranges, trendlines, etc... are very very interesting right now. From my perspective, there are a couple scenarios that could play out tomorrow. I could be a predictive trader and take some positions based on bias. Rather, I've found that being a reactive trader pays much better in the long run. The probability of winners increases at least 25% after getting good confirmation. Which is why I'll be patiently waiting until the market chooses whether or not to go to the road less traveled.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Hi finswin, Could be yes....we're seeing an overextension across all the majors and UJ is starting to pull back already, mainly due to spx correlation. EUR is doing its thing for obvious reasons. I was on oanda today and I saw something frightening.....cant help but say I feel bad for everyone in the upper right quadrant. I'm sure retail traders arent the only ones positioned like this, so it could happen.

Every day is unique, so its hard to say sometiimes what will or will not happen, so I like to just keep my mind open to any possibilities that shoot down the path. Wish I had a more concrete answer for you but Im sorry I really dont unfortunately....just have to wait it out and see what come.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/tools/stati...ve_EUR_USD.png

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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It looks like the data is finally catching up with the equity market too....the s&p is getting insanely demolished today....good for $ shorts.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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We're making new lows on our chf short and eur/jpy, well, take a look. Patience patience patience. CHF is going to run into support at around 1.0337, but I'm overall targeting 1.0262 on that trade for the bulk.

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Quoting Lou

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I am trying to decide, looking at the graph, does one join the crowd? Or is the crowd as shown, the losing 95%?

Did anyone ever think : If 95% of traders don't make it. and 5% do, where are the 5% on this graph? We can see where most traders are positioned (Oanda traders only). Just wondering...

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Quoting Lou

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I would like to hear what those with a lot of trading experience have to say about price hitting and rejecting an area vs price hitting and sticking with an area.

Recent examples would be. July 15 and 20 where price hit and rejected a high price, reversing away quickly.

On July 23 and today earlier where price hit but lingered around the 1.5680 area. Price hovered around there for many hours.

1) In terms of trader sentiment.

2) In terms of getting in/staying out of the market.

3) Anything more?

Thanks for fielding this. Maybe it's a short hopper to second or maybe it is a line drive toward third.

Lou

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Short EUR/USD 1.5827-1.5834

Once people start to realize what bad shape we're really in this area should be good for some action.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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“Ok ok ok, short USD/CHF 1.3000. ok good, wait, wait, wait, ok NOW. Good. I’m in. Geez I’m nervous. Oh crap its not going down! Its supposed to fade the double zero’s! What the hell! Ok where’s my stop loss, where’s my stop loss??? 40 pips….oh man this think is still going! What am I going to do? Maybe if I push back the stop just a little bit it’ll give it more room. Yeah that’ll be ok because you always fade the double zero’s that’s what they say. Oh no the S&P is rallying! BAD BAD BAD for my trade! Oil going down?! What the heck, oil never goes down! I never should have listed to that guy when he told me about this! Now what is this?! Its not stopping! Ok maybe the stop is still just a little too tight. Maybe just a little bit more room. Oh, wow, S&P is really going, but my trade is shaping up, only down by 27 pips now. Whew! Ok I need some more coffee. Where are my cigarettes? Oh man on man. What’s going on with EUR? Its going down?! Oh geez this is bad this is bad. Lemme see; no stop. Just wait. Have patience, that’s what they say just have patience. Oh man if I lose one more trade I’m done. Finished. I can’t take this anymore. I can’t lose. No! Not going to. Its going against me again. Down 41 pips now. No, there’ll be a good time to get out. Can’t lose. Let me just adjust the stop again I need this money. Why cant I ever win? What does the world have against me?! !! Ok down 57 pips now. This is bad. So bad. Why did I use all that leverage? I am sooooooooooooooooooooo FU#^@ED! Alright it should turn here it should turn here…I gotta stop doing this, this is getting ridiculous. What am I going to do think think think. S&P still going. I’m so stupid I can’t believe this. Just wait it out, just wait it out. Alright this is unbelieveable. Feel like I’m going to die here. I gotta close this thing and swallow the loss. I cant take take it anymore. Here we go, just do it just do it. I need another system; I need one that works! Why do I always listen to these people?!!! They post all this stuff but none of it works! Wasted thousands now listening to this crap! I need………”

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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“Ok ok ok, short USD/CHF 1.3000. ok good, wait, wait, wait, ok NOW. Good. I’m in. Geez I’m nervous. Oh crap its not going down! Its supposed to fade the double zero’s! What the hell! Ok where’s my stop loss, where’s my stop loss??? 40 pips….oh man this think is still going! What am I going to do? Maybe if I push back the stop just a little bit it’ll give it more room. Yeah that’ll be ok because you always fade the double zero’s that’s what they say. Oh no the S&P is rallying! BAD BAD BAD for my trade! Oil going down?! What the heck, oil never goes down! I never should have listed to that guy when he told me about this! Now what is this?! Its not stopping! Ok maybe the stop is still just a little too tight. Maybe just a little bit more room. Oh, wow, S&P is really going, but my trade is shaping up, only down by 27 pips now. Whew! Ok I need some more coffee. Where are my cigarettes? Oh man on man. What’s going on with EUR? Its going down?! Oh geez this is bad this is bad. Lemme see; no stop. Just wait. Have patience, that’s what they say just have patience. Oh man if I lose one more trade I’m done. Finished. I can’t take this anymore. I can’t lose. No! Not going to. Its going against me again. Down 41 pips now. No, there’ll be a good time to get out. Can’t lose. Let me just adjust the stop again I need this money. Why cant I ever win? What does the world have against me?! !! Ok down 57 pips now. This is bad. So bad. Why did I use all that leverage? I am sooooooooooooooooooooo FU#^@ED! Alright it should turn here it should turn here…I gotta stop doing this, this is getting ridiculous. What am I going to do think think think. S&P still going. I’m so stupid I can’t believe this. Just wait it out, just wait it out. Alright this is unbelieveable. Feel like I’m going to die here. I gotta close this thing and swallow the loss. I cant take take it anymore. Here we go, just do it just do it. I need another system; I need one that works! Why do I always listen to these people?!!! They post all this stuff but none of it works! Wasted thousands now listening to this crap! I need………”

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Quoting Verto

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I hate when Billy decides to stake out my house.


j/k

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Quoting intrieri22

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Hello everyone - looking back at many of my trades, I feel I place my stops too close. Following this thread - I will be using the 40-pip stop loss. However, today I had two trades that turned out very positive - but my fear got the best of me and I had my stops too close - any advice? I am sure just using a larger stop will make the difference. I am afraid of losing money so I lose money. I am still going through the learning stages - but have picked up a lot here that makes sense. Any feedback would be appreciated - btw - AUD/USD really took off - at a higher level than I anticipated - I missed it

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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“Ok ok ok, short USD/CHF 1.3000. ok good, wait, wait, wait, ok NOW. Good. I’m in. Geez I’m nervous. Oh crap its not going down! Its supposed to fade the double zero’s! What the hell! Ok where’s my stop loss, where’s my stop loss??? 40 pips….oh man this think is still going! What am I going to do? Maybe if I push back the stop just a little bit it’ll give it more room. Yeah that’ll be ok because you always fade the double zero’s that’s what they say. Oh no the S&P is rallying! BAD BAD BAD for my trade! Oil going down?! What the heck, oil never goes down! I never should have listed to that guy when he told me about this! Now what is this?! Its not stopping! Ok maybe the stop is still just a little too tight. Maybe just a little bit more room. Oh, wow, S&P is really going, but my trade is shaping up, only down by 27 pips now. Whew! Ok I need some more coffee. Where are my cigarettes? Oh man on man. What’s going on with EUR? Its going down?! Oh geez this is bad this is bad. Lemme see; no stop. Just wait. Have patience, that’s what they say just have patience. Oh man if I lose one more trade I’m done. Finished. I can’t take this anymore. I can’t lose. No! Not going to. Its going against me again. Down 41 pips now. No, there’ll be a good time to get out. Can’t lose. Let me just adjust the stop again I need this money. Why cant I ever win? What does the world have against me?! !! Ok down 57 pips now. This is bad. So bad. Why did I use all that leverage? I am sooooooooooooooooooooo FU#^@ED! Alright it should turn here it should turn here…I gotta stop doing this, this is getting ridiculous. What am I going to do think think think. S&P still going. I’m so stupid I can’t believe this. Just wait it out, just wait it out. Alright this is unbelieveable. Feel like I’m going to die here. I gotta close this thing and swallow the loss. I cant take take it anymore. Here we go, just do it just do it. I need another system; I need one that works! Why do I always listen to these people?!!! They post all this stuff but none of it works! Wasted thousands now listening to this crap! I need………”

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