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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,901
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:26pm Jul 24, 2008 3:26pm
Quoting auxesis
Much to sad in here.....

Now for something completely different.

enjoy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adc3MSS5Ydc
Hi auxesis,


regards
  • #3,902
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:32pm Jul 24, 2008 3:32pm
Quoting Zoran
Now you have me thinking Leigh...I may be another 10 years out on his age...but I remember he once mentioned his teenage kids so I now assume he must have had his children quite late in life....

Anyway, best I leave it there....I'll certainly keep in touch once I get this big move out of the way and contribute to your thread when I get a chance.
Hi Zoran,

oop, you know?
Yeah , I am still active at that.
Old doesn't mean that I am dead.

Did you hear about the 90year old man who married a 30 years old woman?
What do you think , he married her for? To do the dishes?

regards
  • #3,903
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:38pm Jul 24, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting luSan
A pig goes left and right...a pig does not know left from right...what do you call one that fight the trend? ...I would call him a cow...

I mean: if you realize that you got your scout on the wrong bus, then would you stay on that bus? Would you rescue? What about if you fail on your rescue? Then you go with a second level rescue, right? but if you fail your second level rescue, you move into a third level...then what do you do?...you stay on that bus until that bus stop at the next price level ...that is a good idea if you have a full day for trading...and that it a luxury that I do not have...it is totally illogical...bleed the book and move on... [by that time if you fail then 0.16 % bad trade would be 200-300% of a bad trade and your heart would be pumping like hell, right?]

it does not make sense at all: the scout is for me 1/6 of a trade...16% of a trade...it does not make sense to defend it...kill the guy and accept the fact that I was wrong...I have done so many times, that it is second nature...the only time that this is wrong is when the market is totally chaotic, without structure, on a narrow range, then it does not work and I do not do wave attacks but range attack...but that is another topic....what I do works very well for me...I am happy with it....Also be aware that I do a fast dance...I do not hang around for hours and hour waiting for 5M to get in line with 1H and 1D...I do not want to trade for longer than 2 hours...

So if I am on the wrong bus, I get off...fast...and I move into the right bus..if I find that I got off on the wrong bus again...then I am confused and I stay out...this only happens with the scout...after all for me that soldier is testing the battle field..just a test...I never do this with the rest of my trades...So am I a pig? If so, then I am not a cow....let us laugh

Hey..remember my commandments: "never trade against 5M trend", "never have more than 1 rescue", "rescue only for timing"...so if I stay with a loser scout, then I violate my own laws, I am a sinner...and that is not allowed.

Regards
Hey Lusan,
Admit it, a pig by any other name is still a pig.
It happens sometimes, and sometimes the charts lead you to there.
In the markets we trade in.
There are BULLs , there are BEARs and there are PIGs.
There are no COWs.
If you don't look closely, But of course sometimes we may mistaken a BULL for a COW.

So don't go justifying yourself into a corner.

So, how was the interview?

regards
  • #3,904
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:06pm Jul 24, 2008 4:06pm
Quoting hcong168
fti:

Thanks for the handheld session on 2008-07-22 night; that is really priceless.

I was late to this thread and when I started to read, it is already >100 pages and >2000 postings. What's more is there are a lot of information to be absorbed, so reading from the start of the thread is really very slow. And this thread keep appending, increasing my back log is small issue, there are times that the discussion of current market situation become very difficult by the time I read. So I "attack" this thread at 2 locations: 1 from the latest posting and 1 from the start: burning the candle from both ends, err, burning the candle from one end and from the middle. (Right now I am still on page 180).

That is how I chanced upon your handheld session on 2008-07-22.

Beside expressing my appreciation of your effort in my first posting here, I would like to post the charts of your 2008-07-22 handheld session with entries marked, so that fellow forumer who come late (later then me) to the thread can understand your action better.

fti if you think the charts are not appropriate, please remove them for me. Thanks.
Hi hcong168,
The charts are about correct. Some of the timings are off By 1 or 2 bars.
Don't ask me to correct it. I never revisit nor remember my trades since 20 years back. I am old and my memory is bad, I go by feel these days. So I never remember levels, prices and telephonr numbers anymore.

Actually you can learn little from the chart, although you can see some of the methodology used. If you charted another session with me, it will look totally different. This is because there are other factors involved that are not on the chart, eg dance sequence, pip pulse....frame of mindset, influence of fundamentals. Moreover the trade skew are dependant on strategies imposed, state of book. All these are not on the charts. If you tried to mimic the attack,you will become rigid and thats dangerous.

Thats why you have to babysit trades, and I take sometimes for walk abouts. You nee to feel the situations to understand.

You may be shocked that if you followed me for some walk abouts, i may liquidate the position early due to that I may have a stomach ache and had to go to the wash closet. So it is better to ride along than studying the historical performance.
From the chart, can you pick out where, I came back from dinner. Or when I was chatting on the thread and misses the markets entry.

In perspective , being new to the methodology, you may like to reference it for understand of the principles involved.
It is important not to be robotic or mechanical about the the use of it.
Read the thread carefully and understand it,
then demo its use to familarise the skills required.(orientation)
There are much lessons the markets will teach you, if you pay attention and learn.
Then if you have become confident enough in yout skills,
Test it on smallest positions that is available to you, That is necessary for development of the "greed $& fear" emotions that you will not gauge from demo.

You have worked hard to present the charts ,
Myself and many here ( I believe) will thank you for your effort.

Welcome.

regards
  • #3,905
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:18pm Jul 24, 2008 4:18pm
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran,

oop, you know?
Yeah , I am still active at that.
Old doesn't mean that I am dead.

Did you hear about the 90year old man who married a 30 years old woman?
What do you think , he married her for? To do the dishes?

regards
Still active at it? So your wife is young and still going for more? Well congratulations!

You know a work colleague of mine was born when his dad was in his 60's so if god gave us the ability - why not do it!?
  • #3,906
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:22pm Jul 24, 2008 4:22pm
Quoting maheswara
Sir not sure about this one ...
I recognized that GBP was getting stronger in effect making dollar supposedly weaker , but with other pairs USD just resisted getting weaker , is this why its fishy ?
Hi maheswara,
What you said is in many ways correct.
What was detected was that there was alot of crossing going on.

Take alook at the cemetery chart I posted.
Can you see those many green bars, that was stationary sweeping.
What it means was that in any instances, the market makers were sweeping, from a pivot point. The arket went nowhere , except that range ws created.

This can happen when the Mmakers are booking orders to their benefit or when they are acting on behalf of someone to hold markets.

regards
  • #3,907
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:24pm Jul 24, 2008 4:24pm
Quoting jest1081
ooohhh wow, im feeling the heat here...hehehe.

lets take a chill pill guys. I understand that many of us here have made good for themselves, after a few months of trading, you guys have turned pro, thats impressive.

Lets take a look at ourselves in the mirror first, how did we first get here? What made us better, just a word or two from the teacher, and we get a long well written resignation letter and a pig and cow story.

I must say we have alot of egor running in here. It really doesnt matter if you have to kill 10 scouts so that the army may survive/win the war or be rigid to keep your psychological setup in check, but sometimes we should ponder a thing or two, here, what are the posisbilities if i kill less scouts, run some reecsue sequence and then turn it into an attack sequence?

Lets try to continually learn and improve instead, take the snippets by the teacher as a form of good advice. Of course many things will come into mind, many scenarios will take place, its a learning process... Remember, AOW is the backbone of the method.

Im glad you guys have found your niche. Good day and good trading you pros.

Okay, now you guys can take the guns and fire away, im open.

regards
Thanks, jest that was direct and should wake some up about egor.LOL
regards
  • #3,908
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:31pm Jul 24, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi guys,

I'm very sorry that I have initiated this discussion/dispute and that it got steamed up this way.
So I want to apologize to luSan. My comment was not meant as an attack on you or your style of trading!

My intention was to get that way of trading commented by fti.
The way you handle your scouts is just the way I did it by myself in the past and I'm still not really convinced, what should be wrong about that.

Why should I start a rescue, when I found me on the wrong side of the trend or (to make it a little more difficult) a major move?
Why shouldn't I ride for example at first a short campaign and when the market tells me, the second one on the long side?

For me it is still difficult to define behavior of a pig/changing busses on the one hand and to be nimble on the other hand.

I'm still learning. But I cant trade someone else rules/style if I didn't get the reasoning behind. So I allways have a lot of questions ...
That has been the reason for my question above ....

So once again a stong "sorry" from my side.
Hey Lusan , there you have it.
He wasn't attacking you, just to clearify MO.
anyway I think you had answered MaMood, being the gentleman that you are.

Remember Whenever you trade both the long and short side of markets, for pips , in reality you are pigging. And thats the same for anyone doing it.Whether justified in doing so, thats in the eye of the beholder. However, a rose by any name is still a rose.

regards
  • #3,909
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:38pm Jul 24, 2008 4:38pm
Quoting Green_David
Hi, guys:

Today, we will see a lot of econ data to be released at 3pm, 4pm for E/U, and 4:30pm for G/U (GMT+8 Zone).

The IFO data will is very important data for euro, if you checked E/U price movement on release days from previous several months.

Good luck to you.

@Leighswww: Why you decide not to post here? Come back and share success and failure(wish you never have too bad failure).

David
Hi David,
Your question to Leighsww is very valid.
Only thing is I am feeling that she isn't herself, Something could be wrong.
We should respect her wishes and let her come to terms with whatever it is thats biting her. Thats what friends do, I guess. We'll have to respect her decision, whatever that may be.

regards
  • #3,910
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:50pm Jul 24, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting DutchAngel
@MaMood

I don't think you need to apologise. You were not judgmental or accusative. You were simply asking a question to clarify the concept of what fti defines a pig to be. We are encouraged by fti to ask questions to be sure we understand what he is conveying to us.

@Leigh

This won't win me any brownie points, but to quote my father "If you want to walk, walk. If you want to sit, sit. Do whatever you want but do not wobble." Your numerous departures and comebacks seem like a lot of wobbling to me. I enjoy your postings, but could do without all the drama involved.

@ all
Sorry if my post is offensive to anyone, but I tend to speak my mind. I am not here to please people but to learn and help where I can.
Hi DutchAngel,
With knowledge that the posting was not addressed to me. But i need to make a comparative comment. You Dad , he's wise.
If I was to relate what he said to trading, it would read:
If you are Bull, Buy,
If you are Bear , sell,
But don't go chasing the bulls and bears swings, and turn out to be a ...
Was he trader?

I don't see your posting as offensive, really, maybe "tough love" as Leighsww may put it. I think she may be upset with something. I don't know what. I hope she'll get over it quickly.

regards
  • #3,911
  • Jul 24, 2008 5:21pm Jul 24, 2008 5:21pm
Quoting DutchAngel
"damage is part of the battle, recovery is essential , victory is the objective"

This has become my mantra. I also like this from Theodore Roosevelt

"It is not the critic who counts,
not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled,
or where the doer of deeds could have done better.

The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena;
whose face is marred by the dust and sweat and blood;
who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again;
who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions
and spends himself in a worthy cause;
who at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement,
and who, at worst, if he fails,
at least fails while daring greatly;
so that this place shall never be with those cold and timid souls
who know neither victory or defeat."

Happy trading
Hi DutchAngel,
Like I said before, very enpowering and inspirational.
If I had to give it a title, it will probably read " For those who do"

I guess Actions speaks louder than talk.
If only ben read it.

regards
  • #3,912
  • Jul 24, 2008 7:40pm Jul 24, 2008 7:40pm
Quoting fti
THIS POST IS LATE REPLY TO EARLIER HAPPENINGS

---respect that others might enjoy life's vises. The one mother we had, has left.

regards
Yes fti, I had pretty much given up already although since someone mentioned it and you did acknowledge it as a gift, I responded in that way. At one stage I was just going to suggest that you pack the book into your hospital bag and leave it at that but decided against it.

I think we can all appreciate that some things seem difficult to change so your vices are yours until your heart's content. I shall resist mentioning it again - I'll try really hard....

Very very late here now so must get to bed..... good night to all.
  • #3,913
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:31pm Jul 24, 2008 8:31pm
Quoting fti
Hi David,
Your question to Leighsww is very valid.
Only thing is I am feeling that she isn't herself, Something could be wrong.
We should respect her wishes and let her come to terms with whatever it is thats biting her. Thats what friends do, I guess. We'll have to respect her decision, whatever that may be.

regards
Good morning FTI:

You got up so early today.

When I was in university learning something about western culture, I was told "don't ask a westerner questions about age, marriage status and income, since these are private". Am I wrong?

According to some study, 80% of information are expressed by emotional expressions, gestures, and way of speaking. On internet forums, we can't see the posters' facal expression, gestures etc., therefore mis-communications can happen quite often. Thanks for my poor English, I try to understand posts with good intention (bona fide?). When watching American movies, I heard a lot saying "Don't take it personal".

Yes, about three years ago, there was a overseas Chinese Nobel Laureate who was 82 and married a 28 years old Chinese gril (a post graduate student). And they got a baby about 2 years ago. The funny thing is, that professor claimed to the media that he checed the baby in the hospital, and confirmed that the baby IS his.

David
  • #3,914
  • Jul 24, 2008 9:20pm Jul 24, 2008 9:20pm
Quoting fti
In perspective , being new to the methodology, you may like to reference it for understand of the principles involved.
It is important not to be robotic or mechanical about the the use of it.
Read the thread carefully and understand it,
then demo its use to familarise the skills required.(orientation)
There are much lessons the markets will teach you, if you pay attention and learn.
Then if you have become confident enough in yout skills,
Test it on smallest positions that is available to you, That is necessary for development of the "greed $& fear" emotions that you will not gauge from demo.
Thanks for the reminder.

I have actually skimmed through this thread a few months back by concentrating ONLY on your postings but later I realised that the postings by fellow forumers also have good value. So now in my 2nd pass, post by post.

Crawling like a turlte...
  • #3,915
  • Edited 11:18pm Jul 24, 2008 11:04pm | Edited 11:18pm
Good Morning guys!

Are you all still USD Bulls today?
I'm due to the development in USDJPY a Yen Bull so far.
Dancing USDJPY on the short side ..
  • #3,916
  • Jul 24, 2008 11:10pm Jul 24, 2008 11:10pm
Quoting fti
Hey Lusan,
Admit it, a pig by any other name is still a pig.
It happens sometimes, and sometimes the charts lead you to there.
In the markets we trade in.
There are BULLs , there are BEARs and there are PIGs.
There are no COWs.
If you don't look closely, But of course sometimes we may mistaken a BULL for a COW.

So don't go justifying yourself into a corner.

So, how was the interview?

regards
I just got home...it is late ...

ok ok...whatever...I will think about even if I remain a pig...
interview? went well...but this is a competition...it will take a month to know if I go it...so we just wait...it is in God's hands.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,917
  • Jul 24, 2008 11:15pm Jul 24, 2008 11:15pm
Quoting luSan
I just got home...it is late ...

ok ok...whatever...I will think about even if I remain a pig...
interview? went well...but this is a competition...it will take a month to know if I go it...so we just wait...it is in God's hands.
Good luck to your interview.
  • #3,918
  • Jul 24, 2008 11:22pm Jul 24, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting MaMood
Good Morning guys!

Are you all still USD Bulls today?
I'm due to the development in USDJPY a Yen Bull so far.
Dancing USDJPY on the short side ..
Yesterday Euro's making higher highs and lower lows driving everyone crazy, seems to be dollar bear going into London, but I dont know how long it will last.

sidelines atm.
  • #3,919
  • Jul 24, 2008 11:43pm Jul 24, 2008 11:43pm
fti sir , now that you trade privately , do u use leveraging ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,920
  • Edited Jul 25, 2008 12:11am Jul 24, 2008 11:59pm | Edited Jul 25, 2008 12:11am
Quoting fti

[...]

Yes, Lesson 3 is the last Chapter in my Forexangels, it is about how to put the rescue and attack thingy together in market making. and the way to incorporate the fundamental perspectives into the skew and sliding between the skews of the spiral within a spiral.
After posting it, I felt that it was more suited for dealing room purposes, so I didn't go there.
The relevant stuff, I had just given ad hoc , in the general discussions following.

Moreover to be able to do Blitzkrieg MO it requires massive capitalisation , quite OT for non corporation traders. More suited for big boys market makers.

[...]

regards
Hi fti,

I understand that you hesitate to present Blitzkrieg to us.
I'M thinking about that as follows:

Couldn't it be worthwhile just to know about that MO?
No to practice it, but to know its concept.
I compare our trading to chess. When you prepare for a tournament or a game of chess you are going to analyse your counterpart, his games in the past, his preferred openings, his strength and his shortcomings beforehand.
If he has a favorite way of developing his game, you should know about.
If you don't know about his tactics or may be strategies, it makes it a lot harder to beat him.

If Blitzkrieg is one the Marketmakers games we should know the game, because they are our oponents ...

Maybe you'll find somewhere down the road a few minutes to give us (at least) a short summary what Blitzkrieg is about.

Just my 2 cent ....
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