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  • #1,481
  • Jul 23, 2008 6:07pm Jul 23, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting Dukeman900
Euro / USD - buy 15740 - 15724

Just tracking my forecasted trade.

I try to keep my market believe / forecast as minimal as possible. Dam hard when you want to be right.

anyway ...

I also know it is better to trade what I see and not what I want.

Dam hard not to do some times after all its our job to predict where the market is going to go, guess wrong and we lose.

Last range down on 30min from A=15948, B= 15800 ( daily low of Thursday)..
Range = 148.

Point C High = 15892 - 148 = 15744 (100% of the last range )

Preferred out come: Outside day long

A good entry is where you get sneaky money trading in to your prediction, reverse and out again unscaved. Most of the time the money earned in pays for 1-2 entries getting out.
Dukeman got +24 pips off this trade and I started posting perf. on the first page here. Again if you want something on this list please write the work "Track" or something like that in the post so its clear you're calling it for keeps and want it put on the front page. Here's the link again http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1274
  • #1,482
  • Jul 23, 2008 6:11pm Jul 23, 2008 6:11pm
Quoting demeo
Thanks for all your knowledge Billy , my question is are you concentrating on a multitude of pairs or just a set few as part of your trading strategy?? once again thanks

Chris
you would get an idea on page 92,concerning your question,there is a lot in the earlier post you would have to take out time to study,though the genius brv has posted some on the first page,you are welcome
  • #1,483
  • Jul 23, 2008 6:23pm Jul 23, 2008 6:23pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Lemming, want this tracked on the first post? Thanks,

Yes please!
  • #1,484
  • Jul 23, 2008 6:27pm Jul 23, 2008 6:27pm
EUR needs to reverse at some point, we know this. Take a look at a 4hr chart. The last time we had this kind of selloff the market ran about 500 pips before we saw a major reversal. Before that about 500 pips. With decent retracements around the 400 pip mark. At this leg of the selloff we're seeing about 300 pips. If you take it from the high its about 400. Either way, based on how things are going, the market is starting to get a little tired, though might not be over just yet. If we look down on EUR to the next major area we're seeing about 100 pips away, the 61.8 retracement provides us with an overall very good support level. In the middle of that we have the 1.5620 area which also looks pretty good. The 50% retracement was hit tonight with very little buying interest compared to what normally comes. Taking it as any type of hint of what's to come, these next 100 pips look like the next very probable zone for a decent pullback, if we don't get a push up from here (though its not looking too good right now).....just noticing this and thought I would point it out here.
  • #1,485
  • Jul 23, 2008 6:43pm Jul 23, 2008 6:43pm
Hey everyone - just seeing if I am looking at this the right way. I think the AUD/USD looks good from .9538 to .9554 - I know it is a wide range - but there is good historical support at 0.9538 and a diagonal 4HR line at about .9554 - which is actually good monthly support - what do we think of this? Let me know.
  • #1,486
  • Jul 23, 2008 6:50pm Jul 23, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting intrieri22
Hey everyone - just seeing if I am looking at this the right way. I think the AUD/USD looks good from .9538 to .9554 - I know it is a wide range - but there is good historical support at 0.9538 and a diagonal 4HR line at about .9554 - which is actually good monthly support - what do we think of this? Let me know.
Intrieri, I was looking at the AUD/USD also, except I am seeing a potential short at .9648 - .9667 should there be a movement back up to that level. My worry though would be that it is countertrend, therefore my targets for this one are not so ambitious. However, I still want to see how it would pan out.
  • #1,487
  • Jul 23, 2008 6:53pm Jul 23, 2008 6:53pm
Quoting Gregus83
Intrieri, I was looking at the AUD/USD also, except I am seeing a potential short at .9648 - .9667 should there be a movement back up to that level. My worry though would be that it is countertrend, therefore my targets for this one are not so ambitious. However, I still want to see how it would pan out.


I just think it has been oversold at this point - .9665 looks great to short
  • #1,488
  • Jul 23, 2008 7:04pm Jul 23, 2008 7:04pm
hi brv how about this one long audusd at 0.9507
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,489
  • Jul 23, 2008 7:09pm Jul 23, 2008 7:09pm
Thank you BRV ...........

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Banda, Hit the trade level posted and looking for a retracement here but on any pushes higher looking around 1.0445 and then 1.0479. Have to look at price action if and when it gets up there though; too soon to tell which one will get the most pips.
BANDA333
  • #1,490
  • Jul 23, 2008 7:14pm Jul 23, 2008 7:14pm
I think if EU close below 1.5665 -1.5670 then EU can move south to next support monthly pivot.......... 1.5633 maybe a good point for a buy? .......... ......but 12 EST-4H candle can give a clue of direction..........any advice or insight?
BANDA333
  • #1,491
  • Jul 23, 2008 7:15pm Jul 23, 2008 7:15pm
Morning,

I'm hoping for at least a short term bounce of that level below so I'm in. try and get that stop to break even asap.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,492
  • Jul 23, 2008 8:35pm Jul 23, 2008 8:35pm
Quoting Iron-man
Does anyone see something in the chart below BESIDES S&R levels that would have given you most of the profit to be had. Up front I will say that it is always easier to spot things after the fact but it is possible to do in the heat of battle with practice. SO what is it? ..........Anyone? ..............Anyone?
Just looking at it, I see a triple top where in the past price has retreated quickly from the level each time. So that would give some indication as to what will happen again as price approached for the 3rd time.

Then by drawing a diagonal trend line, beginning around July 21 at around 1.9910 (the chart is quite small, even with zoom so I cannot be very precise) and hitting the candle bottoms and bottom wicks as it rises up diagonally, one could have taken a short as price broke the trendline... and gotten most of the pips on the downward move.

That's my thought . Being new to this thread and trying to catch up to the most recent posts, I hope Iron Man ...this is what you mean
  • #1,493
  • Jul 23, 2008 8:47pm Jul 23, 2008 8:47pm
Looks like two things to me:

-former resistance now working as support, especially 1.9900-9930...its been hit a lot of times so it could give in...but I doubt it.
-second....Price erased two weeks worth of gains on the presumption fed funds rage might actually try to catch up with ECB's rate.


Other than that 1.9650 looks pretty nice for a long.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,494
  • Jul 23, 2008 10:05pm Jul 23, 2008 10:05pm
does anyone view the no-brainer for nzd/usd as still likely to create a bounce even though there's been a lot of nzd selling today looks like it could be forming a double bottom?
  • #1,495
  • Jul 23, 2008 10:55pm Jul 23, 2008 10:55pm
Quoting finswin56
I'll take a stab at this.

Short 1.5807. Should be between 1.5800-1.5811. This is 50% ret from the big move down (assuming the big move has stalled). The next level would be 1.5843 which is just above 61.8% ret., so that might push the SL to 45 or 50, but I'm fine sticking with 40. I don't think price gets above 1.5800, and there's lots of room down. I know everyone is long on this pair, but I think the tide is turning. Too many unhappy Euro's about the strength of this pair, dovish Euro comments, increasing odds that the Fed will increase rates this year, and data that although is still weak, is not weakening further along side inflation flags. I've been short for a while now, so maybe I'm just trying to make myself feel better.

EDIT: Oh yeah, there's also that whole head and shoulders thingy.
thanks! more, more more
  • #1,496
  • Jul 23, 2008 10:59pm Jul 23, 2008 10:59pm
Quoting pipeye
Hey BRV,

Well if your into recurring patterns playing out, here is one that is heavily on my radar. Below are two charts of the gbp/jpy:

Chart 1 -in the box is the pattern of the gbp/jpy from 03/06/07 - 07/20/07 a total of 136 days.

Chart 2 -in the box is the current pattern of the gbp/jpy from 03/17/08 - ? 136 days would coincide with the 31st of July 2008 (the red X).

If this were to play out as scripted, then a possible no brainer would be the intersection of the uptrending resistance line, the 50% fib from the entire decline and the light blue previous resistance line, all around the 221.50 area at the end of the month. This would all seem to fit into the bigger picture continuation of the high level downtrend.

Just some food for thought.
I'm a little shakey on the use of the time series quite honestly, but yeah I'll tell you one thing, when this does finally move up to the 221.40-80 area I'll be selling the hell out of it based on the same reasons you just gave. So yes, thats an easy one I'd hop on.
  • #1,497
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:05pm Jul 23, 2008 11:05pm
BRV --

Thank you for this analysis of the Euro. I have been patiently watching, looking for a good point to go long. I considered 1.5800, but stayed away due to the market madness the day it pushed through that level.

I have seen people mention 1.5650 and 1.5600 as possible entry points, and I see that you mentioned 1.5620 area. For the life of me, I can't see the significance of these numbers.

I do see the 50% fib level at 1.5670 by drawing from 1.5302 to 1.6037. I also see the 61.8% level at 1.5460 (4hr chart attached).

I see possible levels at 1.5611 and 1.5635 - are these what you're referring to when you mentioned the 1.5620 area?

What am I missing here? Could someone shed some light onto the analysis of this pair?

Thank you greatly.

P.S. I recently watched "Trading Places" for the first time

Quoting BillyRayValentine
EUR needs to reverse at some point, we know this. Take a look at a 4hr chart. The last time we had this kind of selloff the market ran about 500 pips before we saw a major reversal. Before that about 500 pips. With decent retracements around the 400 pip mark. At this leg of the selloff we're seeing about 300 pips. If you take it from the high its about 400. Either way, based on how things are going, the market is starting to get a little tired, though might not be over just yet. If we look down on EUR to the next major area we're seeing about 100 pips away, the 61.8 retracement provides us with an overall very good support level. In the middle of that we have the 1.5620 area which also looks pretty good. The 50% retracement was hit tonight with very little buying interest compared to what normally comes. Taking it as any type of hint of what's to come, these next 100 pips look like the next very probable zone for a decent pullback, if we don't get a push up from here (though its not looking too good right now).....just noticing this and thought I would point it out here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.JPG Size: 72 KB
  • #1,498
  • Edited 11:22pm Jul 23, 2008 11:09pm | Edited 11:22pm
Quoting intrieri22
Hey everyone - just seeing if I am looking at this the right way. I think the AUD/USD looks good from .9538 to .9554 - I know it is a wide range - but there is good historical support at 0.9538 and a diagonal 4HR line at about .9554 - which is actually good monthly support - what do we think of this? Let me know.
Also to bapho and gregus -38 is a pretty good line, but I find myself a little more interested around the 30 level, mainly because of the "cup" formed at the bottom of the price action on this last move up......I'm also looking at that 76.4 retracement as we speak, however, at about .9569 and again at the low at .9476....all 3 should show some sign of weakness I believe, though uncertain where you'll find the biggest payout. I'm thinking is pretty near term. If the push does go further that low should pay out.

Overall there's a ton of support down here, even at the 50 mark as you were saying. Here's what I'm looking at:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #1,499
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:29pm Jul 23, 2008 11:29pm
hi,

Closed out the euro for a bit of a scalp. there's so much to do on an intraday basis that I find myself spoilt for choice. Takes a lot of the worry out of holding positions for too long also.

Onto the next.
  • #1,500
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:32pm Jul 23, 2008 11:32pm
Quoting oakmac
BRV --

Thank you for this analysis of the Euro. I have been patiently watching, looking for a good point to go long. I considered 1.5800, but stayed away due to the market madness the day it pushed through that level.

I have seen people mention 1.5650 and 1.5600 as possible entry points, and I see that you mentioned 1.5620 area. For the life of me, I can't see the significance of these numbers.

I do see the 50% fib level at 1.5670 by drawing from 1.5302 to 1.6037. I also see the 61.8% level at 1.5460 (4hr chart attached).

I see possible levels at 1.5611 and 1.5635 - are these what you're referring to when you mentioned the 1.5620 area?

What am I missing here? Could someone shed some light onto the analysis of this pair?

Thank you greatly.

P.S. I recently watched "Trading Places" for the first time
Hi oakmac, I'm not so interested in the 50 and 00 levels as I am the 20 area, just because it looks to be the safest place to get in, yes, you're right about those numbers you posted, you just need to zoom out the chart and look at the macro perspective a little more, but you're dead on in terms of recent reactions. I also see what they are looking at. If you take your 4hr chart, you'll see that 1.5650 was a reactionary level on 6/20/08 and other points going back in time. 1.5600 has been used over the stretch of time on many various dates. But what I see as the most significant in all of these areas is slightly lower, around 1.5589 to be exact or slightly lower.
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