Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
my 1h chart is asking for a kiss
what i have in mind:
i was thinking if this was to break 216.20-216.80 region and go for higher levels without a significant retracement, it should've made another false breakout "in case of another range" OR a retracement "in a normal case" to the downside gathering more momentum and head up like a rocket. however, things have changed, and we didn't have any significant pullback since this ~800 pip rally started, only small 100 pipers. so now i don't think having levels more than 216.80 is going to be that easy, actually i'm starting to doubt we'll see anything further than 215.80 (the latter is 80% wrong). i think price is topping off right at this very moment.
let me explain.
daily CCI (input 30) is in it's highest levels since december 2006. this can mean 2 things:
1) price is overbought.
2) price is strongly bullish and needs to retreat and go up again. AHHH!! but that's the tricky one. i want u guys to take a look at WEEKLY CCI 30. look at the semi straight bullish line it has made since it went below the -100 line (at price 192) and now touching the 100 line (at price 215.80). even weekly CCI should have a significant pullback sometimes, but since 192 weekly CCI DID NOT make any significant pullback (although price did, hmmmmm). after looking back in history, i found the same pattern: weekly chart november 1998 - may 1999. and guess what, both patterns were/are hitting weekly 50ema and CCI 30's 100 line at the same time. yes ladies and germs, the FALL is comin' and i think we are reaching tops at the moment. this might be as soon as before the end of this week. this is my most recent observation (1 hour old). would really like to know what u guys think about this observation.
ok, now let's say the above are just an old man (me) seeing things. here's my alternative scenario (i'm predicting a pullback in both scenarios by the way)
i had the same fibo levels on my charts as the ones scrat have posted earlier yesterday (my time). he mentioned 127.2 at 215.5x.
according to my own observation. price usually retreats from there to 1 of four other levels then jumps back up to 161.8 if:
1) we had a bearish/bullish divergence
2) price was OB/OS
those levels are
100% currently at 213.90
88.6 @ 213.23
78.6 @ 212.63
61.8 @ 211.64
and 161.8 at 217.56 area
each one of those are candidates for this coming pullback that i do believe we'll see. and i might long from there IFFFFFFFF i get an m30 trade signal.
I am still digesting this my friend.
Can you post the chart....?
does that make it clearer my friend? take a look at 50ema in conjunction with the blue area of CCI. also take a look at what FE level was reached as of the end of the fall on the left: FE 78.6. this might be the target of the next fall. but let's stay conservative and say that FE 61.8 is a realistic target
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