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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #4,701
  • Jul 22, 2008 3:37pm Jul 22, 2008 3:37pm
price dropped because of the feds hawkish comments about a rate hike sooner rather than later this morning plain and simple
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #4,702
  • Jul 22, 2008 4:35pm Jul 22, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting LearningPIPs
Currently we're at 1.5776...any opinions on this being the low for now?
Hi learningpips,

one thing i learnt quite quickly, was to make money we dont have to have a crystal ball... we dont need to predict anything. we basically just trade the trend, so wherever the trend goes we follow. the trend is our friend, we hug it and follow it.

i gave up trying to figure out where things are going, and it doesnt matter. we dont get paid for figuring it out (like analysts who if they were that clever would be trading, right??).

I suppose you could say that this doesnt really apply to your post, but it just made me think of something that became an aha moment (one of many) in my learning to trade process. I used to drive myself nuts thinking where will gold go, where is oil headed, how much further will pork bellies drop, is usdjpy a good buy or sell... and it was all pointless!!

Just thought it might be of interest!!!

Good luck mate!

shinny
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #4,703
  • Jul 22, 2008 5:04pm Jul 22, 2008 5:04pm
Is the trend on the eur/usa up or down cause each time it hit below 1.58 it went back up a trend
but the trend could be down as all i can see is red
  • #4,704
  • Jul 22, 2008 5:05pm Jul 22, 2008 5:05pm
THANKS! for the direction in thinking.
  • #4,705
  • Jul 22, 2008 5:09pm Jul 22, 2008 5:09pm
Quoting Tmac
price dropped because of the feds hawkish comments about a rate hike sooner rather than later this morning plain and simple
Yup.....When Paulson and Plosser can move the market by jawboning as much as Heli-Ben & Trichet you can be sure that we are in a twitchy, volatile market.....mind you Plosser is uber-hawkish to start with so nothing new there.
Beige Book and Geithner to speak this week also in the lead up to the August 5th FOMC meeting.
  • #4,706
  • Jul 22, 2008 7:47pm Jul 22, 2008 7:47pm
how is the long from 1.58 looking now?
  • #4,707
  • Jul 22, 2008 8:12pm Jul 22, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting tehuringa
Yup.....When Paulson and Plosser can move the market by jawboning as much as Heli-Ben & Trichet you can be sure that we are in a twitchy, volatile market.....mind you Plosser is uber-hawkish to start with so nothing new there.
Beige Book and Geithner to speak this week also in the lead up to the August 5th FOMC meeting.

Don't mean to hijack the thread but to be fair... I think oil prices had a much bigger effect than Plosser's speech. Unless there was some intervention going on at the same time.

That being said to be respectful to the thread topic - I don't like to jump in front of a running train, so I waited for price to calm down and put my stop buy order @ 1.5800.

On the notion that you don't need a crystal ball to make money - yes and no. I think it is VERY important whatever it is you do, that you stack your probabilities in your favor. THAT is what you are doing by following the trend - you are going with what is PROBABLE.

But in order to be a successful trend trader I think you need to learn to be patient and to wait for those good probability scenarios.

(I have been doing this for awhile and must say - it is hard to implement in real life, even though in theory is quite simple)
  • #4,708
  • Jul 22, 2008 8:13pm Jul 22, 2008 8:13pm
Quoting rogerdoger
how is the long from 1.58 looking now?
Hard to tell at this stage....overall bias is still to the upside but some worse than expected Euro data, stronger U.S. figures, Beige Book and Geithner opening his gob could push this correction a little deeper....who knows.
Also possible GSE legislation in congress this week and crude falling 14% this week make for a pretty fruity mix.
1.5750 is strong and a break of the resilient 1.5650 mark would cause me to rethink things but whatever way you look at it the USD has some major issues and all jawboning aside......as my Father says "you can't polish a turd"

But I could be wrrrrong
  • #4,709
  • Jul 22, 2008 8:35pm Jul 22, 2008 8:35pm
Quoting tehuringa
Hard to tell at this stage....overall bias is still to the upside but some worse than expected Euro data, stronger U.S. figures, Beige Book and Geithner opening his gob could push this correction a little deeper....who knows.
Also possible GSE legislation in congress this week and crude falling 14% this week make for a pretty fruity mix.
1.5750 is strong and a break of the resilient 1.5650 mark would cause me to rethink things but whatever way you look at it the USD has some major issues and all jawboning aside......as my Father says "you can't polish a turd"

But I could be wrrrrong
Sorry but you can now!http://blatanttruth.org/turd-polish.gif
  • #4,710
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:50pm Jul 22, 2008 9:50pm
  • #4,711
  • Jul 23, 2008 2:20am Jul 23, 2008 2:20am
I,m thinking about the next FED´s auction of 28-day credit, through its Term Auction Facility ($75 billion). It will be held on Monday, July 28.

Therefore EURUSD´s price can fall to 1.5650/1.5600 next week.

I do assume that Tuesday 29 or Thursday 30 there will be a big chance to make big profits, going long at 1.5650 (SL at 1.5600)... I WILL BE PATIENT.
  • #4,712
  • Jul 23, 2008 3:55am Jul 23, 2008 3:55am
I want to beleive all the theatrics on all USD crosses are temporary. Guess i will just find something else to occupy my mind hoping Bernie and the boys have not found a new formula to polish a TURD.Cos these days technology has found applications beyond computing.But then I'd hate to see that happen just yet.

I've taken a good -55 pips licking... wont mind having them back
  • #4,713
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:56am Jul 23, 2008 4:56am
Quoting Dedax
I want to beleive all the theatrics on all USD crosses are temporary. Guess i will just find something else to occupy my mind hoping Bernie and the boys have not found a new formula to polish a TURD.Cos these days technology has found applications beyond computing.But then I'd hate to see that happen just yet.

I've taken a good -55 pips licking... wont mind having them back
I feel your pain man....I am a whisker away from getting stopped out for -86 pips.....pfffftttttt
  • #4,714
  • Jul 23, 2008 8:50am Jul 23, 2008 8:50am
Should to say Wednesday:

Quoting Kaiser
... I do assume that Tuesday 29 or Wednesday 30 there will be a big chance to make big profits, going long at 1.5650 (SL at 1.5600)... I WILL BE PATIENT.
  • #4,715
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:35pm Jul 23, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I can say this much - I prefer jackos unchanging, consistent directionality(and the period over which it does/did change if I read up correctly isn't just about ever three days but several weeks to months) over just about any so called analyst who constantly yells out "short USD, no wait, long USD, no wait, let me reread those reports, errrrr" ...
What I like about Jacko,s method is the simple way to conduct oneself in this business, understanding it from the point of view of a businessman, who does not experiment with a system to see if such system can work. You know, and every trader knows, that this it is a business where the irrational experimentation does not fit.
In fact, the irrational experimentation is not a characteristic of the personality of the Big Players in this market. Surely if one of them would see that what you comment, in some threads ("short USD, no wait, long USD, no wait, let me reread those reports"...), simply would smile, and he would think "thanks to that iracional way to think, I am filling my pockets with a lot of money". BTW, I believe that much that money left my own pockets, in my first stage like trader (right now, that money could be in Jacko´s pockets ).
Well, I believe that there is no way to profit in this business, but studying (to good traders/authors) and to assume the personality of the Big Players who already have filtered all the information (Big Players like whom they negotiate 300 lots knowing that, although there are possibilities of losses, with an intelligent system like A-H, always will recover).
The huge thing of A-H system, which I have not observed in others "systems" , it is that sooner or later you can recover your losses, and continue in the market of consistent way.
  • #4,716
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:49pm Jul 23, 2008 1:49pm
Tal parece que el precio no quiso esperar hasta la próxima semana, por lo cual estaré esperando el momento adecuado para comprar....
  • #4,717
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:51pm Jul 23, 2008 1:51pm
Kaiser, Nice reply to Seekinglight.

Are you an experienced trader?

AND.. what was it you said in Spanish... I can pick out about every 7th word... and there are only about 22.
  • #4,718
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:53pm Jul 23, 2008 1:53pm
Quoting Kaiser
Tal parece que el precio no quiso esperar hasta la próxima semana, por lo cual estaré esperando el momento adecuado para comprar...
Again, english language:
So it seems that the price did not want to hope until the next week, thus I will be hoping the right moment to buy. ...
  • #4,719
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:57pm Jul 23, 2008 1:57pm
Quoting Kaiser
Again, english language:
So it seems that the price did not want to hope until the next week, thus I will be hoping the right moment to buy. ...
esperando=waiting
deseando=hoping/wishing
Never say never.
  • #4,720
  • Jul 23, 2008 2:18pm Jul 23, 2008 2:18pm
This 5685 area... on the Daily and 4 hr ... as the bottom, looks pretty good to me. But I would need to see some steady and strong upward momentum to put money on it.
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