Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

If you do that you are not ready to trade this system.

Our profits come from a deviation letting us enter 2 3 4 lots sometimes and cashing a lot on the return to correlation.

Lets' see what happens.

Spieler

To better understand your system, could you please explain how you handled this drop? It's an hourly EUR/CHF chart, starting on June 25. I'm just going through my charts and looking for spots that I would have trouble with, and thinking how I would trade them using your system.

Thanks.

In the last 20 years , adding positions for example each 0,25% and trend in the other side and using VaR , what is the worst scenary and how many adds each 0,25% for example have a trader to do to close all positions in earnings ...

For example :

I entry with a short position when 1,6280 eur/chf , then market goes +0,25% up .. i enter other short ..... the next day goes other +0,25% and other short .....

¿ How many lots have have you open in the worst historical series to do a good MM with this system ?, and see if with for example 16.000 $ in account i can do with 0,2 eur/usd + 0,3 usdchf and stay trading this system for a Long term (all my life ...), perhaps with an account in Oanda with microlots (1000 units) and my initial capital this system will be very profitable.

For example 25 december 2007 to 17 March 2008 , the market is in a great bearish trend . but ohh my Good i entry in 25 december with long position and each -0,25% add a new lot .... and in a correction 23/1 to 21/2 isn't sufficient to cover all average shorts !! . What to do in this scenary? . The market down near more than 10% !!! in this frame time.

I hope that you understand me , because my english isn't good sorry.

hi pippopotamus..... follow your avatars advice mate!!!!!!!!!!

Hi Spieler and all,
This is one of the best threads ever. I have been reading all posts both here and on the other thread. As far as I can understand today hasn't given us any opportunities to trade yet.

Good job Spieler.

Simulation ( Very bad , but is only an example ) from 25/12/2007 to 17/03/2008

Lot%Balance1 0,25 - 859,00 € 2 0,50 - 806,94 € 3 0,75 - 780,91 € 4 1,00 - 754,88 € 5 1,25 - 728,85 € 6 1,50 - 702,82 € 7 1,75 - 676,79 € 8 2,00 - 650,76 € 9 2,25 - 624,73 € 10 2,50 - 598,70 € 11 2,75 - 572,67 € 12 3,00 - 546,64 € 13 3,25 - 520,61 € 14 3,50 - 494,58 € 15 3,75 - 468,55 € 16 4,00 - 442,52 € 17 4,25 - 416,48 € 18 4,50 - 390,45 € 19 4,75 - 364,42 € 20 5,00 - 338,39 € 21 5,25 - 312,36 € 22 5,50 - 286,33 € 23 5,75 - 260,30 € 24 6,00 - 234,27 € 25 6,25 - 208,24 € 26 6,50 - 182,21 € 27 6,75 - 156,18 € 28 7,00 - 130,15 € 29 7,25 - 104,12 € 30 7,50 - 78,09 € 31 7,75 - 52,06 € 32 8,00 - 26,03 € 33 8,25 - € Total- 13.770,03 € rollovers 850,00 € Balance- 12.920,03 €
In the worst scenary and with minilots and a ratio 1/1,5 in eur/usd usd/chf we can lose near 12920 before to earn money exactly 3 weeks later in 7 April.

In the last 10 years (1998-2008) this correction is very big is the 61,8% correction since 2003 wave in eur/chf.

My recomendation : If you have an account with 25.000 € it's possible trade all life this, the worst scenary will be near 50% of your account big account is better. This scenary is for people that never be in front of a computer o laptop with a system in a metatrader .

period starting 25th of december was not a big deal hedging no problem at all.
Hedging whan you have a trend and pull back which was the case is never a problem.
We had short signals as well some days dureing that period

Dont compare averaging against the trend an outright position and what i am saying in this threat

penible today each time i am about to put a second lot it goes down and each time we hit low of the day eur/usd goes down so we are back to high of range.
Am loosing 94 pips usd/chf and winning 94 pips eur/usd due to the ratio i am red so ffaaarrrrrrrr

Simulation ( Very bad , but is only an example ) from 25/12/2007 to 17/03/2008


Your figures are wrong of course not taking into account pull back and short signal occured during these months and i have never said to put a lot every 0,25% rules changes after 3 lots

Yes , i know but i have to staty in the worst scenary , i know that some days will be signals at +0,25% and 0,50% and in the same day we have corrections that will be close with earnings ... but always we have some positions that never can be closed , only if we average this , or no ? .. Other thing is that you tell me with the pullbacks we can rebalance this position that never can be closed because there isn't pullbacks ...

I can see this strategy only with all track record , to see VaR , average profitts , ratio P/L , Risk/Reward, standar desviation, sharpe, etc .... jaja if i'll be an acredited investor i can see the track record of this strategy since the beginning , what is the leverage max that you have with this system? . With minilots for example 0,2 / 0,3 what do you think that will be the minimun balance account to survive all life?.

I only need de P&L curve of this strategy can you give me a graph to see this in the time ....

Regard

In this moment is possible to see one opportunity to short. , because 1,57 can be the bottom of eur/usd , and if we have a pullback the usd/chf down more quickly that eur7usd and renember that is x1,6

I am in on emore lot short
10385 and 15701

Good entry . What is the platform to do this i think that Currenex , LavaFx , baxter , HotspotFx-i , Fxmarketspace is perfect for a HF's only fractional pips , less than 1 pip in eur/usd and usd/chf ...

The account i am doing that as bad spread ( 3 on eur/usd and 4 on usd/chf so 7 pips in the head each time)

True, sorry my misunderstanding.

Another question please, if you have to enter an extra position at +1.5% will you then wait for drop back to +1% ( place of entry on position taken before the one at +1.5%) to exit or will you exit on a regresion of 0.25% from the 1.5% ie at +1.25%?

¿Why? with your system , you will be more efficient with Currenex near 2-3 pips two orders : with only 0,02% are in + , you are losing a lot of money ... near 40$ each order with lots !!.

yOU ARE VERY CURIOUS

because this AM account is at the customer's broker and that s not my choice

"Another question please, if you have to enter an extra position at +1.5% will you then wait for drop back to +1% ( place of entry on position taken before the one at +1.5%) to exit or will you exit on a regresion of 0.25% from the 1.5% ie at +1.25%?"

1,25 in theory but will check south speed first .

Big idea is to externalise profit to add to bp and lower position

I took another short at EUR/CHF 1.6303
USD/CHF 1.0385
EUR/USD 1.5686